"(Kitco News) - Platinum has been one of the biggest gainers this week for any commodity market, but its grip on those gains will be tested next week, unless the labor strife that pushed up prices continues.
Gold will likely hold in its current range, with market watchers suggesting it might try to test the upper end of the band.
Prices were mixed on the day and the week. The most-active October platinum contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,473.10 an ounce, up 5.2% on the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled lower Friday, at $1,619.40, down 0.21% on the week. September silver settled lower on Friday, at $28.002 an ounce, also down 0.21% on the week.
The platinum market woke from its summer slumber after news of violent clashes at Lonmin’s Marikana platinum mine. Strife between rival unions at the mine has increased and as of Friday at least 30 people have been killed in some of the worst violence involving police since the apartheid era. Lonmin lost at least 15,000 ounces of production as it was forced to cease output because of a shutdown; the company said it won’t reach its year-end target of 750,000 ounces.
Most-active October platinum pierced through resistance at $1,450 an ounce, a level not seen since July 6, on the news. That rise helped to support other precious metals.
Yet analysts are wary to assign further gains in the white metal, unless the violence escalates. Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale, said given lackluster demand in the platinum group metals, there’s little to sustain the rally fundamentally.
“It’s possible to see a brief push to the low $1,500s, but I don’t see it sustained unless the strike continues,” Bhar said.
He said given the uncertainty of the global economy, PGMs have been under pressure, as have all industrial metals. “We’d need a boost in demand and we’re not going to get that next week. We really need to see a solid recovery in auto sales,” Bhar said.
Auto sales= PT and PD used in catalytic converters about one ozt per converter.
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, agreed that platinum’s upside is limited given the lack of demand. First resistance for platinum is seen at $1,475, with support at $1,425.
Some analysts are rethinking whether or not the platinum supply will be in surplus this year, as originally expected before the violence broke out. If the surplus is wiped out, that will support prices, but the strike will need to drag on before that occurs, they said.
Gold saw lackluster movement this week, but some analysts said they see the metal trying to test the higher part of the current range since it has held the $1,600 area.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 28 responded this week. Of those 28 participants, 16 see prices up, while three see prices down, and nine are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Part of gold’s direction will depend on the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens, gold may have a better shot at trying to break above $1,635-30 (did you mean 35 or 25?), analysts said. Because gold is dollar-denominated, it often moves inversely with the greenback.
LOL I ask myself the same question every day!!
Yet Bhar and Haberkorn said they see gold continuing in its mostly sideways track, given the light volume which is typical for this time of year. Also, Bhar said, the market is looking for some sort of impetus, like comments from the Federal Reserve about possible quantitative easing.
NEXT WEEK FEATURES FOMC MEETING MINUTES
A hint of whether that might occur could come as early as next week. Market participants are likely to look toward the July meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, slated for release Wednesday. Analysts at Barclays Capital said any potential for a change in trend will likely depend on what the minutes reveal.
“Any hints of how close the Fed is to pulling the trigger on easing, as well as additional measures it is willing to consider, could be market moving…U.S. data continue to firm up as jobless claims continue to hover near post-crisis lows, and forward-looking indicators, such as the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which rose to minus 7.1 in August after a print of minus 12.9, point to an improving outlook. Additional easing by the Fed is unlikely, in our economists' view, given this macroeconomic backdrop,” they said.
Follow me on Twitter! If you want to keep up with metals news and features, then follow me on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @dcarlsonkitco
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News"
Gold will likely hold in its current range, with market watchers suggesting it might try to test the upper end of the band.
Prices were mixed on the day and the week. The most-active October platinum contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,473.10 an ounce, up 5.2% on the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled lower Friday, at $1,619.40, down 0.21% on the week. September silver settled lower on Friday, at $28.002 an ounce, also down 0.21% on the week.
The platinum market woke from its summer slumber after news of violent clashes at Lonmin’s Marikana platinum mine. Strife between rival unions at the mine has increased and as of Friday at least 30 people have been killed in some of the worst violence involving police since the apartheid era. Lonmin lost at least 15,000 ounces of production as it was forced to cease output because of a shutdown; the company said it won’t reach its year-end target of 750,000 ounces.
Most-active October platinum pierced through resistance at $1,450 an ounce, a level not seen since July 6, on the news. That rise helped to support other precious metals.
Yet analysts are wary to assign further gains in the white metal, unless the violence escalates. Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale, said given lackluster demand in the platinum group metals, there’s little to sustain the rally fundamentally.
“It’s possible to see a brief push to the low $1,500s, but I don’t see it sustained unless the strike continues,” Bhar said.
He said given the uncertainty of the global economy, PGMs have been under pressure, as have all industrial metals. “We’d need a boost in demand and we’re not going to get that next week. We really need to see a solid recovery in auto sales,” Bhar said.
Auto sales= PT and PD used in catalytic converters about one ozt per converter.
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, agreed that platinum’s upside is limited given the lack of demand. First resistance for platinum is seen at $1,475, with support at $1,425.
Some analysts are rethinking whether or not the platinum supply will be in surplus this year, as originally expected before the violence broke out. If the surplus is wiped out, that will support prices, but the strike will need to drag on before that occurs, they said.
Gold saw lackluster movement this week, but some analysts said they see the metal trying to test the higher part of the current range since it has held the $1,600 area.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 28 responded this week. Of those 28 participants, 16 see prices up, while three see prices down, and nine are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Part of gold’s direction will depend on the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens, gold may have a better shot at trying to break above $1,635-30 (did you mean 35 or 25?), analysts said. Because gold is dollar-denominated, it often moves inversely with the greenback.
LOL I ask myself the same question every day!!
Yet Bhar and Haberkorn said they see gold continuing in its mostly sideways track, given the light volume which is typical for this time of year. Also, Bhar said, the market is looking for some sort of impetus, like comments from the Federal Reserve about possible quantitative easing.
NEXT WEEK FEATURES FOMC MEETING MINUTES
A hint of whether that might occur could come as early as next week. Market participants are likely to look toward the July meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, slated for release Wednesday. Analysts at Barclays Capital said any potential for a change in trend will likely depend on what the minutes reveal.
“Any hints of how close the Fed is to pulling the trigger on easing, as well as additional measures it is willing to consider, could be market moving…U.S. data continue to firm up as jobless claims continue to hover near post-crisis lows, and forward-looking indicators, such as the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index which rose to minus 7.1 in August after a print of minus 12.9, point to an improving outlook. Additional easing by the Fed is unlikely, in our economists' view, given this macroeconomic backdrop,” they said.
Follow me on Twitter! If you want to keep up with metals news and features, then follow me on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @dcarlsonkitco
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News"
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
. It's hard to read between the lines, but that's why we have you, beeb. Cheers.