XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Dunno what to say - makes less sense to me than this GC 240:

http://screencast.com/t/9HJlCR2P

beeb

Beeb could you explain your analysis plz. I dont understand wht you say. Whts GC 240.

GC is gold futures
240 is 240 minutes or 4 hours per bar

The analysis is simply that these lines seem to me to have some significant harmony with price whereas I have no idea what Nawas was trying to show with his pretty yellow butterfly...

If the lines I have shown resonate with you then they may help you to analyse price and possible future movements and assist you in your decision making...

beeb

Now it much more clear. Actually i though GC 240 is some kind of pattern.
Thanks Beeb.

You're welcome.....

Here's a GC 240 chart with a couple of forks. If we see continued support (as in the circled bar) along the red UP that was previously resistance then that is potentially v bullish...

http://www.screencast.com/t/2odzjLPYS

beeb

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/silvund.htm this is a nice read about seasonality. Silver could be a nice punt now if you have a longer term perspective. Even more so as the central banks are probably going to start pumping.

that's the best answer for the century

Silver flying?

Gold trading alongside euro with little physical interest

Metals markets opened the midweek session on the downside as the euro’s “Draghi Rally” fizzled out and the US dollar recovered to near 82.50 on the trade-weighted index. The common currency had rallied (and gold along with it) on the back of rising optimism that EU officials might take certain easing or interventionist measures to shore up flagging economies and runaway bond yields. Forex traders expect the euro to trade between $1.22 and $1.24 for the time being, barring any surprises on the statistical or regional political front. S&P lowered its rating outlook on Greece to “negative” from “stable” in the latest round of cuts. Greece already has a CCC rating, which is eight levels below investment grade (read: junk).

However, a decline of nearly three-quarter percent ensued this morning in the wake of reports that German industrial production fell 0.9% in June, industrial orders declined 1.7%, and that exports slid 1.5% on the month. Both figures were below economists’ projections. Italy’s economy once again contracted in the second quarter with its GDP falling 0.7%. The country has now experienced four consecutive quarters of economic decline and is firmly in the grip of a deep recession. The situation has prompted Capital Economics analyst Ben May to caution that “Italy faces huge economic and fiscal problems. Although the pressure from the markets has recently eased, we still think that it is only a matter of time before Italy is forced to seek a sovereign bailout.”

Market watchers are becoming increasingly convinced that after half a year on the job, Mr. Draghi might be a “man who can talk the talk, but stumbles badly when it comes to the bit where he has to attempt the walk. The evidence is starting to mount up that when it comes to reassuring the market, Mr. Draghi has about as much credibility as Greek bond salesmen.”

Spot gold prices drew closer to the $1,600 psychological support level, falling for the first time in four days, with an initial decline of nearly $10 and a bid-side quote at $1,602.50 per ounce. VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov writes that “Bullion continues to trade with the single currency with little physical interest. So far, gold has failed to attract any safe-haven inflows, instead trading as any other risk asset and in line with the broader market sentiment.”Speaking of physical interest (or the lack thereof), projections made by the Bombay Bullion Association place the level of Indian year-to-date (to September) gold imports at 450 tonnes as compared to the 753 tonnes imported in the same period last year.

On the other hand, Sharps Pixley market analyst Shamik Bhose points to the maintenance of the $1,525 support level in gold (now thrice tested) as being pivotal for the yellow metal. We have, several times, also mentioned the same value zone as being singled out in many an Elliott Wave analysis as being a critical one to have to hold. The analysis notes that “gold is in a downtrend now. It’s been in a downtrend since September [2011]. It edged lower in March and April, but that downtrend has suddenly accelerated in May and now the moving averages are all sloping down.”

Shamik Bhose also remarks that gold’s 252-day moving average has been broken only once since 2001, and that was back in 2008. Over the past few weeks however, that same breach has once again manifested itself and that is why, if and when $1,525 is taken out on the downside, we may look for $1,400 or perhaps even $1,250 gold, where “even in the worst-case scenario, I would hope for us to find a bottom.”

Currently, Sharps Pixley asks the rhetorical question “Can Fear Refuel the Investment Demand for Gold?” Well, perhaps not fear just yet; just the never-ending hope that the Fed will launch a QE3 and give the easy money junkies their much-awaited fix. Yesterday, the story that Boston Fed President and major dove Mr. Rosengren encouraged the Fed to go “all out” with a massive and open-ended QE3 made it into “heavy rotation” on the hard money sites. Albeit Mr. Rosengren is not on the FOMC this year, and will not call the decisive shots, commodity bulls appeared to cheer his suggestion with abandon. Dallas Fed President Fisher called Mr. Rosengren’s recommended steps as nothing more than a “mistake” to be avoided so close to the Presidential election period. Others prefer to focus on the fact that the US is approaching the “fiscal cliff moment” in January and that any Fed action notwithstanding, that railroad crossing is far more important to watch. Base jumping, anyone? Some say so.

Spot silver fell 30 cents to near $27.75 and platinum dropped $8 to $1,395 the ounce. The decline in palladium was only about $2 and the noble metal was quoted at $581 per ounce. Sister metal rhodium showed no change at $1,170 on the bid. Background markets showed the euro at $1.234, crude oil down 50 cents to $93.18 per barrel and US stock index futures tilted lower after the aforementioned weak data came out of the EU’s economic engine.

The markets are also gearing up for the release of a slew of Chinese economic data on Thursday and Friday. For the time being, what is already known is that the country’s economic engine is showing lower RPMs already. Freight volumes are down by 2.4% year-on-year and by 8.6% on a month-to-month basis. The metrics are undeniably bearish for industrial commodities as they underscore feeble underlying demand. Copper, iron ore, aluminum, and platinum are at risk from such weak readings.

Reuters News reports that “China's imports of crude oil, copper, coal and iron ore are expected to drop for the second consecutive month in July as a stuttering economy and high stockpiles keep buyers at bay. China is the world's biggest consumer of commodities, and last month saw global iron ore prices tumbling 13 percent and thermal coal prices hitting a 30-month low, declines that would normally have encouraged restocking.”

We close today with a couple of news items on the topic of gold production; current and future. First, it was reported that China’s gold mining production climbed 7.7% to 177 tonnes in the first six months of this year. The country is firmly cementing its first-place ranking among global gold producers.

Further, The Guardian reports that “A “new frontier” in mining is set to be opened up by the underwater extraction of resources from the seabed off the coast of Papua New Guinea, despite vehement objections from environmentalists and local activists. Canadian firm Nautilus Minerals has been granted a 20-year license by the PNG government to commence the Solwara 1 project, the world’s first commercial deep sea mining operation. Nautilus will mine an area 1.6km beneath the Bismarck Sea, 50km off the coast of the PNG island of New Britain. The ore extracted contains high-grade copper and gold. The project is being carefully watched by other mining companies keen to exploit opportunities beneath the waves.”

Until Friday, hum along….

Do you realize at all ( REAL OR DEMO) HOW MUCH MONEY you LOST during that hour?

In an ideal world when a trade is placed especially with a market maker since they are trading against you and know all your positions, not to mention they have the liquidity to do anything they want to you.

The response should be INSTANT. If you are trading an ECN and using Orders, then you have to wait until someone lifts your bid "BUYS your SELL."


Now something market makers supposedly pride themselves on is 24/5.5
liquidity at a decent rate at all times.

Thus if the money on their end is there, WHY at all should there be ANY delay in closing a position.???

Trading with NDD/STP (No Dealing Desk - Straight through processing) where again supposedly the dealer is just offering qoutes to clients and matching the buys with the sell and vice versa at the price asked for by market.

They profit by collecting the spread... And probably running stops at some point ..

In any case Since trading NDD/STP - I have Literally NEVER had ONE REQUOTE even during huge volume news I get filled. Nor have I had any other odd messages eluding to me not closing my trade when clicked "buy/sell" at MARKET.
It just GOES THROUGH.

In any case this is not geared towards you, except for the beginning and now.

I would immediately make a 9000 USD test withdrwal/

See what happens. Next I would take out ALL THE CAPITAL THAT WAS EARNED using the 100k initial startup cap and put it in a new broker, ECN or NDD/STP.

ECN is a completely different way of trading. Most brokers have something called DOM or a price ladder, where you can blindly see who is offering what currency and how much volume there is. This is how the big boys scalp,
clicking on a price ladder when it moves 3 pips up or down, not going to market with 5 extra steps especially on MT4.

If this IS A REAL ACCOUNT. I HIGHLY suggest you withdraw ALL WINNINGS WiTHIN THE NEXT MONTH AND OPEN A SECOND ACCOUNT.

I have 3 accounts.

EDIT: OH BTW- IN THAT HOUR I would say you lost around 2500 to 5000 USD.

Just learning Harmonic and need some comment. Thanks a lot beeb for you comment on it. That was my alternate strategy until gold break 1630. Above 1630 I am also bullish like u all

You are welcome Nawas - it's not a system I am particularly familiar with. I am a simple person and if a line is working I will trust that....

Don't assume that everyone here is purely "bullish". If they are traders they will let the charts of different timeframes do the talking and maintain as neutral a stance as possible regarding their bullish/bearish prejudice.
For example I am a long term bull on fundamental reasoning but from a technical point of view I can be bearish on a 20 minute or 240 minute timeframe, or even on a daily one. Whilst I expect price to rise over time I will be looking for shorts off those charts in such circumstances.

beeb

Out of my Silver long since I really have no clue how to trade metals. What I heard is that Silver is undervalued and the metals are being manipulated until the next crisis...

Silver is important to element to life, however its value is not as compatible as gold.

The fiat money will probably fall and metals will dominate with record price.

I don't know, this's what I heard...

Anyone participate in any other big forum which trades mainly metals?

let me respond to this one tomorrow.

As far as I know I think this is a Russian broker not highly regulated that offers ridiculously high leverage like 1000:1. so I would be more concerned about just keeping my money if trading with such extreme risk.


Is this correct?

Looks like we are getting some support in the 1600/1610 area. The longer we can stay above the better the chances are of a break of resistances 1625 and 1636.

Right now is a very slow period for gold, may not get any real movement until September.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif

I suggest you avail yourself of the resources in the 20,000+ messages on this thread and take the time to learn all you can about metals. They are more complicated to trade than fx.....

Why are you looking for another forum?

beeb

Hi
Thanks for the reply
I'm not using 1000:1 levrage.
my current total orders are 0.1 lot (0.01 lot (1K)) and since last 6 7 months i have not exceeded 0.06 lot.
so I'm not taking extreme risk while trading .
my main concern is, is it ok to trade with 1400$ with MT4 broker?
is there any possibilities that I might face some problem at the time of withdrawal - say 800$ from my account

Thanks

Because this forum is mainly for currencies and this thread is not really active compared to many fx threads..

OK I'm confused -I'm not trying to be rude, I'm trying to help......You said earlier that you had heard silver was undervalued. This implies to me that you are considering it for the long term based on fundamentals. Yet you now say that you are looking for a really active (I assume scalping) thread........

If you are inexperienced, I suggest you step back and decide if you want to be a scalper or an investor as both the methodology and mindset are very different......

beeb