XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Hi all,
Here my personal outlook gold for today 8.1.2012.

http://vietnamgoldcorp.com/new_demo/...2012.08.01.png

trade is close with +10, looking for a good up thrust, a close above 1625 with volume is what she want.

I drew these pitchforks,

Based on my views, Gold is still on the the triangle wedge.....

What do you guys think?

Thanks,

R

I didnt know that ADP can be that significant? i thought everyone is waiting for FOMC later. 60 pips drop for silver. anyone caught that train?

I don't have any longs myself. just loaded some shorts @ 1607. My short experience has taught me that a month-end week, with ADP, NFP, FOMC plus UK and / or EU interest rate reviews can be very unpredictable. Guys can end up catching falling knives if they are not careful.

It's cutting through Daily 100 SMA like a red hot knife on butter! If it closes below the Daily 20 SMA then I'm targeting 1580ish and perhaps leave one short open for a 1565/70ish target. Otherwise, I'll tp and stand aside for the rest of the week. Have to run to work after checking out the ISM data release.

Is the Gold Rush Over?


Wednesday, 1 Aug 2012

By: Sharon Epperson, Judy Gee (CNBC)

Sliding gold coin sales show that retail demand for the actual metal is clearly fading, but dealers and analysts say it is not because investors are less concerned about the financial turmoil around the globe. There's just not the same fervor for the precious metal as in recent years.


http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section..._coins_200.jpg

Anthony Bradshaw | Getty Images

"This is the first time in our economic history that we have a situation where there is such tremendous economic uncertainty and global fear when gold has not skyrocketed in tandem," said gold dealer Lee Rosenbloom, owner of Plaza 57 Appraisals and Plaza Collectibles in New York.

COMEX gold futures [GCCV1 1602.30 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...hlist_down.gif -8.20 (-0.51%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] have declined 9.5 percent, nearly $200, from the 2012 peak near $1,800 an ounce, and prices over the past 12 months are basically flat. As for the physical metal, declining sales in U.S. gold coins — a real-time proxy for retail investment demand — along with a somewhat stagnant gold futures price indicate the frenzy over gold has calmed, but it's certainly not been crushed.

http://thumbnails.cnbc.com/VCPS/Y201...ED2-PL-Oil.jpg



Sales of gold coins at the U.S. Mint plunged to about 30,000 for one-ounce gold coins in July — that's less than half the number sold in the same month last year and more than six times fewer than at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008.
"Coin sales are price sensitive, but there's a bit of a lag effect," explained HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel. Gold prices rose in January and February to the highs of the year and coin demand dropped a few months later due to those high prices, he said.
But "the decline in retail coin sales does not necessarily herald a bear market," noted Steel.
ConvergEx Group's chief market strategist Nicholas Colas agrees slowing demand for gold coins is not necessarily a negative sign. "Demand which was in fact probably too high in 2008 and 2009 because of worries of the financial crisis has simmered down to a more sustainable rate, reflecting a more structural level of demand that is sustainable and ongoing and one that is healthier ultimately for the gold markets," Colas says.
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...-vs-crisis.gif
The gold market has witnessed this cycle before. Gold coin sales historically spike in times of uncertainty — most recently during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 1999 Y2K scare, and in October 1987, after Black Monday. Once the initial cause of panic levels off, sales return to more normalized levels, Colas says.
Yet even without a financial crisis, demand for gold won't just disappear, he said, since it fulfills a role no other commodity or financial asset provides: low correlation to and diversification from other markets.
And for retail investors, it's not all about crises or fear. Coin buyers, unlike institutional buyers, aren't usually seeking a "safe-haven" to protect large portfolios, said RBC Capital Markets' precious metals strategist George Gero. Also, he added, "as the economic recovery has weakened, retail investors have had less disposable income to purchase coins."
But well-capitalized investors may begin to fill the void.
Coin dealers say their clientele is changing. "Previously, we had the general public purchasing gold," Rosenbloom said. "Now our coins are going to less people, however, more sophisticated, big-money investors and buyers."
Steel contends physical demand for gold will remain slow and steady. He says the gold market has stabilized, consistently holding above $1,525 an ounce so far this year. "Retail interest from gold buyers may have faded, but has by no means evaporated altogether," he says.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, and if U.S. fiscal problems are front-and-center in the markets once again, Steel says further uncertainty could stimulate gold coin sales. So the precious metals craze may have slowed down, but sliding coin sales don't mean the gold rush is over.

http://vietnamgoldcorp.com/new_demo/...2012.08.02.png

The power of Fibonacci level

And when fibs don't line up it is the same power as what much of India has been having the last two days.

I see gold in the 1500s and in the 1600s, i or any of us with a little vision won't see it going down to $1000 nor we see it going towards $2000, for now.

Rest, the future belongs to the metals, we can only speculate, God Almighty knows the Best !

Yours
FF@FF

here's a chart that most likely will see a bounce to 1620 again, if this channel is respected tomorrow.
I see high probability of a bounce...watch this trade go bad because of MR. Murphy.
I'll be taking this trade 30 mins after next daily candle starts.

xauusd long1590 tp 1610.

Next daily candle started - a few hours ago.

sorry posted thissomewhere else hours before....

1590 long...tp limit 1610 or manually depends on the nfp
current 1594

The overnight seesion on my favourite 15 minute chart. Note how "somebody" let out the bears 15 minutes just before NFP. That's the reason why I prefer standing aside in days like these.

i risk all my money on this live trade on NFP a gambling NFP now i will not trade whole year i will close today before trading session close

I would delete or at least alter your screenshot as your account numbers are showing.

still holding mate

Hey mmudasir, Good for you!! eventhogh I do not concur with the gambling style.

May I ask where is your target?

Thanks

i will close my positions before 1 hour close trading session