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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #19,921
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:28am Jul 13, 2012 9:28am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
I'm curious why you set the buy for AUD.USD @ 1.019 (61.8%) rather than 1.0205 (38.2%) which is where I set mine. Is there a harmonic convergence or trendline intersection I'm not seeing in this case or is that a strategy preference for when you are already holding a position?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #19,922
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:36am Jul 13, 2012 9:36am
Good Question.

Here is the answer. I noticed that due to my only setting 80 pip TPs instead of a usual 150 to 300 the initial position was closed in profit.

Thus, I threw a new one on as a bit of a feeler for the resistance area where it is. Now the new order which oddly enough I was just looking at, is set for an eyed appx view of 50% less than the breakout bar,

If it doesn't appear to be retracing I will add it in by market.

Secondary reasons, I was experimenting with using Bollinger bands and alligator together due to the way aussie trends.

It is way blown out of the bollinger bands on H1 and high up above alligators green line which is often tested (area wise)

While the bollinger blowout suggest continued move up, I still think she may slide a bid before hand.

We may have just seen the days highs.

Quoting Kadc
I'm curious why you set the buy for AUD.USD @ 1.019 (61.8%) rather than 1.0205 (38.2%) which is where I set mine. Is there a harmonic convergence or trendline intersection I'm not seeing in this case or is that a strategy preference for when you are already holding a position?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,923
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:38am Jul 13, 2012 9:38am
Likewise if she doesn;t slide and continues to break out I am already long
only missing 40 pips from my initial entry and I can again add in new positions above my test resistance position by market.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,924
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:40am Jul 13, 2012 9:40am
Where are you pulling these fibs from the breakout bar?

or 1.0097 to now. appx 1.021 edit or rather down from 0264 to oo97

Quoting Kadc
I'm curious why you set the buy for AUD.USD @ 1.019 (61.8%) rather than 1.0205 (38.2%) which is where I set mine. Is there a harmonic convergence or trendline intersection I'm not seeing in this case or is that a strategy preference for when you are already holding a position?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,925
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:57am Jul 13, 2012 9:57am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quote
Where are you pulling these fibs from the breakout bar?

or 1.0097 to now. appx 1.021 edit or rather down from 0264 to oo97

I was drawing from 1.0165 to 1.0230, the min/max range of the last move. I had originally drawn to 1.0222, but any time I don't see at least a 38.2% retracement I redraw to include the new high/low and set my entry at the new 38.2%.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #19,926
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:02am Jul 13, 2012 10:02am
  •  Fib
  • | Joined May 2012 | Status: Dinapoli+Fibonacci=Upper Hand | 58 Posts
Strong resistance on the way , Lets see how it will develop ..
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  • #19,927
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:10am Jul 13, 2012 10:10am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Do you always set a target to take profit?

I've found fixed stops grouped to trailing stops and letting it run more profitable overall, but perhaps if I'd shortened my targets as you've just suggested might yield better results.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #19,928
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:18am Jul 13, 2012 10:18am
I Often set take profits yes on say a 3 day trade.

Due to the fact it might get hit on london.

I (I know this is against the rules) don't always use stops mainly for the reason that the market knows where most stops and I mean big banks have stops they are all interconnected.

So when the market is vulnerable to gaming, even a decent 75 to 100 pip stop can be wiped out while the market then decides to simply turn around and proceed north 200 pips to where you had set your tp for.


When I am looking for longer term trades multiple weeks I don;t use stops or take profits.

The reason being the Majors and minors like AUD and CAD - majors lets use GBP/USD will only move an average amount of pips each day, if you are trying to catch 1000 pips your stop should be appx 500 so if you have decided to risk 500 and wake up -150 so what?
If after a couple days it looks bad, you know you should probably kill the trade and maybe even save yourself 250 pips rather than letting it run the stop just for the sake of saying "i lost"

If you can't risk that much or are only willing to do say 50 pip stops than your entries have to be much much tighter and on point and then there should be a stop in place.

When day trading, I will sometimes use stops but more often than not a TP, because it is a good way to say to yourself, I did it, the trade is over, I won, I am stopping for the day.

Quoting Kadc
Do you always set a target to take profit?

I've found fixed stops grouped to trailing stops and letting it run more profitable overall, but perhaps if I'd shortened my targets as you've just suggested might yield better results.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,929
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:24am Jul 13, 2012 10:24am
And a second answer no. I am mainly doing it for the people who seem to like the explorer, someone complained there were no stops or tps..

so using a risk 1 to reward 2 yesterday when I decided to start dumping USDs I slapped on all my favorite pairs at the daily lows with

40 pip stops and 80 pip tps.

Quoting Kadc
Do you always set a target to take profit?

I've found fixed stops grouped to trailing stops and letting it run more profitable overall, but perhaps if I'd shortened my targets as you've just suggested might yield better results.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,930
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:45am Jul 13, 2012 10:45am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
I have calculated that I would do far better without stops for exactly the reasons you've cited, yet I can't seem to stop myself from using them because I have this nagging voice in my head that tells me it's more prudent to protect small profits than to risk losses for the hopes of bigger profits.

Generally speaking, the targets that I (and many, if not most other people) "know" are going to be hit usually are, and even when I've place stops so outrageously large that there's virtually no point in having them, a spike will still come along and take me out, only to see the price resume shortly afterwards.

This seems to be true (for me) for both day trading as well as longer trades, but no matter how many times I prove myself right if I'd have abandoned my stops, giving myself stress thinking about the money I could have made but didn't, I can't seem to bring myself to abandon using stops.

Maybe I need to attend a stop-loss rehab.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #19,931
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:53am Jul 13, 2012 10:53am
Quoting Kadc
I have calculated that I would do far better without stops for exactly the reasons you've cited, yet I can't seem to stop myself from using them because I have this nagging voice in my head that tells me it's more prudent to protect small profits than to risk losses for the hopes of bigger profits.

Generally speaking, the targets that I (and many, if not most other people) "know" are going to be hit usually are, and even when I've place stops so outrageously large that there's virtually no point in having them, a spike will still come along...

It's very dangerous to trade without a stop, particularly in the current news-driven market, and I would advise anyone to always use one.

A couple of possibilities:

You may find that you the reason you are being stopped out is because you are placing the stop in an "obvious" place - market makers are traders too and know where stops are likely to be found. It is in their interest to exploit this.

Alternatively, remember that your broker also knows where your stops are and it could be them triggering them - unlikely unless you are a big player or unless they are trying to trigger a big player a bit further away and you just got caught in the move.....

beeb
  • #19,932
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:59am Jul 13, 2012 10:59am
I am not an advocate of not using stops. I just feel that they need to be placed appropriately if they are indeed going to serve the purpose of their design.

If your broker is running spikes on ridiculously large stops that are not there on a third party say netdania or kitco chart then they likely do not exist and you are indeed being ripped off.

In which case I would:

A. be asking for a refund of all monies lost every time this happened.
B. Be looking for another broker.

Sometimes if the market is moving fast enough I can be in and out in the time it would take me to add 5 stops to 5 trades I will close in a half hour - rather than just monitor the screen. Yes there is risk there moreso than taking the time to add the stops. It really depends on when and how you are trading to know how and where to place a correct stop.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,933
  • Jul 13, 2012 11:04am Jul 13, 2012 11:04am
Looks like aussie may be setting up for a bull flag on the h1
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,934
  • Edited 8:13am Jul 15, 2012 7:53am | Edited 8:13am
monday daily chart
bias is up from 1581
last weeks extending down near projected weekly lows and rotation back to this weeks weekly pivot lets see if she extends north as she starts the week on the north side of weekly and daily pivot.
weekly
1625
1581-87
1558
weekly
28.41
27.26
26.11
  • #19,935
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:10pm Jul 15, 2012 2:10pm
Bolded part of quote = bullish

Quoting lilpip
monday daily chart
bias is up from 1581
last weeks extending down near projected weekly lows and rotation back to this weeks weekly pivot lets see if she extends north as she starts the week on the north side of weekly and daily pivot.
weekly
1625
1581-87
1558
weekly
28.41
27.26
26.11
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,936
  • Edited 5:50pm Jul 15, 2012 5:49pm | Edited 5:50pm
AU and AG both GAP UP ^ ^ ^

Wait to see if Gap closes before trading unless you are positioning.


Euro gap closed.

GBP looking strong.


Aussie 30 pip gap ^^^^^
Kiwi Gap ^^^

Swissy looking weak as hell, gap down already closed. Staying short and moving TP up

U/CAD Looking weak on open waiting for TP
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,937
  • Jul 15, 2012 6:53pm Jul 15, 2012 6:53pm
This is looking like a flip in trend.

Gaps north on AG nd AU.

Plus, My favorite Time frame H1 ( besides weekly) we are riding above the 100 hour SMA.

If you look back at the Gold chart especially you will see before Fridays BREAK,
how many times the 100 SMA smacked down Gold every time she crept up to it.

Now. In essence what we want to see after such a flip is every time the 100 HOUR SMA is tested GOLD is BOOSTED.

Food for thought.

Need to get above 1600 -
Weekly outlook = if momentum keeps up we will be looking at a test of 1630 resistance.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,938
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:15pm Jul 15, 2012 8:15pm
Gap traders seem to be done on all major and minor fronts as well as gold and silver.

Now is time to position or take a Sunday night trade!

BTW "Positioning" does not mean going to market. Set orders if you like.

Etc.

XT
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,939
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:20pm Jul 15, 2012 8:20pm
Gold Market to Focus On Bernanke, U.S. Data Next Week For Any Clues On Monetary Easing

Quoting Allen Sykora
(Kitco News) - The gold market will be watching next week for any clues on whether to expect further Federal Reserve monetary easing, with much of the focus likely to be a slew of U.S. economic reports and congressional testimony on the economy from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Prices rallied sharply on Friday to flip to a gain for the week after gold was behind as of Thursday. The Comex August contract rose $26.70 Friday to settle at $1,592 an ounce, which was a gain of $13.10 from a week ago. September silver climbed 20.8 cents Friday to close at $27.369, posting a weekly gain of 44.90 cents.

The gold market’s end-of-week bounce appeared to be on hopes for more stimulus in the U.S. and elsewhere, said Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Kingsview Financial. China’s second-quarter gross-domestic-product growth cooled to 7.6%, the lowest level in more than three years, and low coal prices and electrical usage also portend economic slowing, he said. Gold’s gains accelerated around mid-morning in New York after the University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary July reading of 72, its lowest since December, from 73.2 in June, Nedoss continued.

There are hopes for “more worldwide easing, not just here” in the U.S., Nedoss said.

Technically, prices bounced “pretty good” Thursday from near-term chart support in the $1,550-$1,560 area, Nedoss said. “You see some bottom feeding, prompted by weaker (economic) numbers all the way around,” he said.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,940
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:49pm Jul 15, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting XTrade

Food for thought.
Need to get above 1600 -
if momentum keeps up we will be looking at a test of 1630 resistance.
Have to say from my angle that is the battle at hand for 3 quarter direction .
2011 1550 area yearly breakout retest holds again.
2012 Primary (yearly) and secondary (3rd quarter) trend area pivot 1600-1610 will be the support or resistance for the 3 quarter as july comes to an end.
A breakout of 1625-30 (which lines up with my weekly high) should get the herd moving.
A kick back down from 1630 and below 1600 area, 1550 may not hold as the 3rd quarter cycle gets underway.
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