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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #19,701
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:30pm Jul 3, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting jaimini
Price is struggling with major down trend line in daily timeframe
also PA looking to pass H4 supply.
also keeping this weeks fundamentals in mind we might test 1640 area
Great work my Jaimini Brother, Well done
  • #19,702
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:33pm Jul 3, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting SunTrader
So the cost tripled in 6 years.
Either dirt has very little gold left in it or maybe the oil price has been tripled, or the machinery and manpower have really become very expensive
  • #19,703
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:42pm Jul 3, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting forexfacts
Either dirt has very little gold left in it or maybe the oil price has been tripled, or the machinery and manpower have really become very expensive
Or those figures are bogus.
  • #19,704
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:46pm Jul 3, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting XTrade
we are experiencing a bit of technical resistance trying to cross back above the weekly channel dip line. (channel origin 2008.)

Price has been massively supported by the 100 week sma /

horizontal support at 1535 + demand in that zone 1550.

I believe this to be the beginning of a new upswing.

For the past many days the price has fought very well, looks like 1550 has become a solid floor for gold and yes it also looks like it is going to break the trend line.

Maybe, Nothings for sure, we need to play safe until it actually breaks the trend line in a clear manner.
  • #19,705
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:03pm Jul 3, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
Or those figures are bogus.
They sure are few months back when i was searching for production prices, they were different everywhere, at places they are way less than $1000/oz like $400 - 500 in some cases and at places they were touching $1500(feasible when gold seemed to go over $2000), the average came to around $1000 if i remember correctly.

At the end of the day it comes down to Demand and Supply only, and that demand and supply is driven by fundamentals primarily and technicals secondarily.

I still prefer gold and silver over $ but i can be biased because i am into it
  • #19,706
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:22pm Jul 3, 2012 4:22pm
Yes I know you believe in fundamentals and as you know I believe in price and the price hasn't wanted to move higher with any conviction for a good long while.

So until it does I will continue to look for further weakness or just chop.
  • #19,707
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:53pm Jul 3, 2012 5:53pm
Well I think we know who has made it policy to suppress the price of gold. His name may rhyme with hernanke. I guess it remains to be seen whether the fed will continue to do this, but with all the fundamentals this week they had better drop it hard over the next days because non farm payroll will likely be very bullish for gold if the number comes in under one hundred thousand. It could be the catalyst to breakout north.
  • #19,708
  • Jul 3, 2012 6:27pm Jul 3, 2012 6:27pm
I did research on my own, so gold mining cost was about 1200. But now price of oil went down, which takes huge part. But machinery and man ower become more and more expensive, especially in Australia.
  • #19,709
  • Jul 3, 2012 7:19pm Jul 3, 2012 7:19pm
Silver has surpassed one major weekly DTL and looks to be headed to test the next one at price point (area) 29.50

Gold is not letting up. I am expecting a test on 1636 sufficient interim resistance in the upcoming sessions.

Don't forget tomorrow is a US bank holiday.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,710
  • Jul 3, 2012 7:50pm Jul 3, 2012 7:50pm
Silver also appears to have triple bottomed on the WEEKLY!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,711
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:24pm Jul 3, 2012 8:24pm
Quoting vaidas7777
I did research on my own, so gold mining cost was about 1200. But now price of oil went down, which takes huge part. But machinery and man ower become more and more expensive, especially in Australia.
Chart said 1572.

As forefacts pointed out there many different "costs" estimates out there.
Some mining companies are more efficient than others.

From a June 2nd, 2011 The Economist article:

"As mines age, extracting gold gets harder and costlier. Ores give up less of the metal—average grades have fallen by 30% since 1999 according to GFMS, a consultancy. And ore must be hauled up from ever greater depths. Fuel is pricier. So, too, are labour and equipment, since the global minerals boom has driven up demand for miners and drills. A decade ago the average cost of extracting an ounce of gold from the ground stood at a little over $200. In 2010 it hit $857, says GFMS—though this figure depends in part on the gold price. When gold was $200 an ounce, nuggets that cost $800 to extract stayed buried."

Nowhere near the amount (1572) you state.

And of course as for-profit corporations are want to do their costs magically go higher when their revenue goes higher to alleviate the taxable amount due to the government. So again quoted "costs" are probably shown as higher than actuality.
  • #19,712
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:30pm Jul 3, 2012 8:30pm
For fundi fans:

http://www.gfms.co.uk/media_advisori...%20version.pdf

Note: 49 pages so it may load slow for some.
  • #19,713
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:34am Jul 4, 2012 4:34am
decision time for gold, if it wont break clearly, I consider to short it to around 1560.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,714
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:38am Jul 4, 2012 4:38am
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I wouldn't read too much into things at the moment.

Today is a NY holiday and NFP is on Friday. Nobody is about and the market is trading on fumes..........ie easy to move/manipulate

beeb
  • #19,715
  • Jul 4, 2012 5:01am Jul 4, 2012 5:01am
Quoting beeb
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I wouldn't read too much into things at the moment.

Today is a NY holiday and NFP is on Friday. Nobody is about and the market is trading on fumes..........ie easy to move/manipulate

beeb
hehe yes, i have read that already, I will see how the course reacts and plan a trade from monday onwards. thanks again for your warning
  • #19,716
  • Edited 8:51am Jul 4, 2012 6:37am | Edited 8:51am
3 TL to test and try to break in daily.

Price still below UTL from 2008-Oct.

Supply zones still untested
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,717
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:17pm Jul 4, 2012 1:17pm
fvuck the fomc

Quoting Kadc
I was waiting for a "big push" down, but I guess the gradual slide to $1594 was it. I'm not expecting any useful from the FOMC, but I think gold will surge on even a hint of the potential of the possibility of any kind of easing; so, though as many have already stated, it would be wiser to wait until after the statement and/or conference, I'm willing to risk a small loss for what I hope will be a bigger gain.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,718
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:18pm Jul 4, 2012 1:18pm
nice analysis

xt
Quoting jsr
3 TL to test and try to break in daily.

Price still below UTL from 2008-Oct.

Supply zones still untested
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,719
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:20pm Jul 4, 2012 1:20pm
eXactly. there is Nothing happening today...

besides maybe greedy mt4 brokers running stops with non existent price spikes

happy 4$th all
Quoting beeb
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I wouldn't read too much into things at the moment.

Today is a NY holiday and NFP is on Friday. Nobody is about and the market is trading on fumes..........ie easy to move/manipulate

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,720
  • Jul 4, 2012 8:56pm Jul 4, 2012 8:56pm
GREAT POST...................
Quoting SunTrader
Chart said 1572.

As forefacts pointed out there many different "costs" estimates out there.
Some mining companies are more efficient than others.

From a June 2nd, 2011 The Economist article:

"As mines age, extracting gold gets harder and costlier. Ores give up less of the metal—average grades have fallen by 30% since 1999 according to GFMS, a consultancy. And ore must be hauled up from ever greater depths. Fuel is pricier. So, too, are labour and equipment, since the global minerals boom has driven up demand for miners and drills....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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