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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #19,101
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:01pm Jun 6, 2012 8:01pm
Look closely at a 4H time chart that I have posted and pay more attention to November 2011 and research the news for that time frame. Look at what I circled and compare now to then. I'm not trying to makeup anyones mind but they are scary similar and the same situation. Every one's thinking one thing it goes the other. We will get 2 scares and the first one is on the way!!!!!!!!!

Quoting Crgone12
This is what I see happing like in Nov 2011. Could be wrong since the media has their way. It's almost identical



http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h2...ousoutcome.jpg
  • #19,102
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:03pm Jun 6, 2012 8:03pm
She was broken here, then it looks like some profit taking occurred.

Charts out of order, two H4s and a daily view in the middle.

Now in the daily view the fourth bar is not only forming above the broken and tested top. It is looking north.

We'll see.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Bullish flag break june 12.GIF Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold flag daily look 3june 12.GIF Size: 7 KB
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,103
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:11pm Jun 6, 2012 8:11pm
I love the way these two forks tell the story.

She is rejecting the darkside.


Quoting beeb
So far, the scenario posited in posts 19240 and 19293 seems to be playing out. Still plenty of resistance above from other charts, but IMHO worth keeping an eye on....

GC Daily http://www.screencast.com/t/4XaP5vVuUY

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,104
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:27pm Jun 6, 2012 8:27pm
I am long - looking for more QE3 talk and rumours. Gotta spend money to make money, no?

I like the bullish flag and I like the fact that everyone is doubting gold. You can't predict the unpredictable. Gold's only correlation is to itself.

Technical signal - can't deny the bullish flag.

I agree with X - time for a long surge. Where the heck is Bemac? I always enjoy his analysis.

Jump on board (at your own risk). I'm feeling "lucky". Let's see how I feel when it plays out.

**SL and TP are confidential and I realize this could be perceived as a punt.



Quoting XTrade
I love the way these two forks tell the story.

She is rejecting the darkside.
  • #19,105
  • Jun 6, 2012 8:54pm Jun 6, 2012 8:54pm
This could be one of those times that we see a nice bullish signal and many sit at the sidelines because they feel they have missed play. Instead of focusing on catching the whole run, we are supposed to catch a chunk of the movement after a clear signal is given. Am I right, novices? If this is not a buy signal (flag + QE3 talk + lows shaking out the weak longs), I'm not sure what is.

A lot of the analysis calling for shorts seems dubious.

Russian "JPM" guy - do you understand English? Why don't you answer anyone's questions about your system? I mean- why post it if you won't bother to explain it? What is the point?
  • #19,106
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:37pm Jun 6, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting Wheels
This could be one of those times that we see a nice bullish signal and many sit at the sidelines because they feel they have missed play. Instead of focusing on catching the whole run, we are supposed to catch a chunk of the movement after a clear signal is given. Am I right, novices? If this is not a buy signal (flag + QE3 talk + lows shaking out the weak longs), I'm not sure what is.

A lot of the analysis calling for shorts seems dubious.

Russian "JPM" guy - do you understand English? Why don't you answer anyone's questions about...
True... But Bernanke is speaking!
  • #19,107
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:42pm Jun 6, 2012 9:42pm
Quoting patguchi
True... But Bernanke is speaking!
Bernanke is speaking today, but any QE3 annoucement will only be held on the FED meeting on June 18-19. Until then, many things could happen...
  • #19,108
  • Jun 6, 2012 9:55pm Jun 6, 2012 9:55pm
No problems here. We know why your long. If she doesn't pop up directly she may take a dip first around london, then pop, Just an idea.... We shatt see,

Quoting Wheels
I am long - looking for more QE3 talk and rumours. Gotta spend money to make money, no?

I like the bullish flag and I like the fact that everyone is doubting gold. You can't predict the unpredictable. Gold's only correlation is to itself.

Technical signal - can't deny the bullish flag.

I agree with X - time for a long surge. Where the heck is Bemac? I always enjoy his analysis.

Jump on board (at your own risk). I'm feeling "lucky". Let's see how I feel when it plays out.

**SL and TP are confidential and I realize this could be...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,109
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:05pm Jun 6, 2012 10:05pm
No one should feel they need to expose exact TPs and SLs you can use areas.

Unless one has a question about where there stop is and such... tp is ..... etc....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,110
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:21pm Jun 6, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting Wheels
This could be one of those times that we see a nice bullish signal and many sit at the sidelines because they feel they have missed play. Instead of focusing on catching the whole run, we are supposed to catch a chunk of the movement after a clear signal is given. Am I right, novices? If this is not a buy signal (flag + QE3 talk + lows shaking out the weak longs), I'm not sure what is.

A lot of the analysis calling for shorts seems dubious.
Well, everything is possible, but I'm wondering this:

From the viewpoint of bullishness, ain't it better a falling wedge than a descending triangle ?

Just look at Daily chart . No lower lows, but there are lower highs. As long as I know, it can create bearish pressure that may break that support very hard.

So the triangle must be broken, and price must go above 1700 soon in order to invalidate that pattern.

So technically speaking, I'm still bearish.

I'm cautious only because of fundies.

Now, the flag is there, at least the pole, but price is not not acting like a flag.

Also, price going higher doesn't mean that much if it can't break the DTL from historical high and stay above it. Then, I'd say bullish market again.

And yeah, I know there is QE talks, but this is 2012 and because of elections, QE3 is not a certainty yet.

However, tomorrow Bernanke's words can cause a lot of volatility.

So, if you are confident with your call it's ok.

I like waiting for retests. After all, trading is about probabilities, and my trades are short term, so I don't care if I miss the first train. I can wait the next one, and then I'll know where are my TPs and SLs.

The other thing is: market will be there tomorrow and next week, and so on. So no rush.
  • #19,111
  • Jun 6, 2012 10:43pm Jun 6, 2012 10:43pm
You have great insight and understanding of the markets. This seems like a beginning scenario of DEC of 2011. I just spent the last 4 hour researching and feel good about my thoughts, hopefully I'm not creating an answer for something that does not exist yet, though it will soon or someday soon, I'm just feeling not yet. Either way can be a win if you can reposition yourself quickly enough. Thanks!!
Regards,

Jason

Quoting jsr
Well, everything is possible, but I'm wondering this:

From the viewpoint of bullishness, ain't it better a falling wedge than a descending triangle ?

Just look at Daily chart . No lower lows, but there are lower highs. As long as I know, it can create bearish pressure that may break that support very hard.

So the triangle must be broken, and price must go above 1700 soon in order to invalidate that pattern.

So technically speaking, I'm still bearish.

I'm cautious only because of fundies.

Now, the flag is there, at least the pole, but...
  • #19,112
  • Jun 6, 2012 11:16pm Jun 6, 2012 11:16pm
We are snagged at resistance. When it pops she should breakout.

A dip might occur beforehand otherwise more sideways movement seems likely.

price to crack - 1620 first then 1640 next todays high.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,113
  • Jun 6, 2012 11:19pm Jun 6, 2012 11:19pm
Don't hold your breath.

I have no idea what this guy is trying to say or do.

Quoting Sreym33
Thanks?
Alright you just let the chart do the talking, that's ok. seems like you are a man of few words, but I'm just looking for some good conversation!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #19,114
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:48am Jun 7, 2012 3:48am
yesterdays Beige book report was misleading as it was released prior to the abismal nfp numbers last week and revision downwards of previous month employment figures

gold should break 1670 today , interesting day ahead. good luck everyone
  • #19,115
  • Jun 7, 2012 4:27am Jun 7, 2012 4:27am
Quoting fxtrader_888

gold should break 1670 today , interesting day ahead. good luck everyone
I strongly suggest everyone to wait until bernanke speaks and the market reacts. I am placing pending orders in both directions and have closed all my previous positions.
  • #19,116
  • Jun 7, 2012 5:19am Jun 7, 2012 5:19am
Quoting fibbonix
I strongly suggest everyone to wait until bernanke speaks and the market reacts. I am placing pending orders in both directions and have closed all my previous positions.
I hope your orders are OCO lol, getting whipsawed into 2 positions would feel pretty bad
  • #19,117
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:05am Jun 7, 2012 6:05am
Quoting HotBiscuits
I hope your orders are OCO lol, getting whipsawed into 2 positions would feel pretty bad
they are
  • #19,118
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:15am Jun 7, 2012 6:15am
Quoting dnvg
......FED meeting on June 18-19. Until then, many things could happen...
Including Greek elections on the 17th.
  • #19,119
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:33am Jun 7, 2012 6:33am
Quoting fibbonix
I strongly suggest everyone to wait until bernanke speaks and the market reacts. I am placing pending orders in both directions and have closed all my previous positions.
what's the best entry point to enter?
  • #19,120
  • Jun 7, 2012 6:37am Jun 7, 2012 6:37am
Quoting SunTrader
Including Greek elections on the 17th.
Fundies Taking control again over gold........

Come to think of fundies and speculation, isn't this scenario looks like we are at the door of a new global recession?

In 2008, Lehman Brothers trigger the domino effect, which affect the euro zone, sent gold price down by about 30 %.

Im not surprised to see Greece out of Euro zone.

Warren Buffet has assumed that "Another US recession is not likely to happen", IF the EURO crisis is contained well and will not spill over to the US.

http://www.inquisitr.com/248630/warr...on-not-likely/

If that's the case, Lets assume that when Greece is out of EURO Zone, Gold will enter recession mode, fall another 20% of value, and then shoot back up just like it did during the rally from 2008 - 2011

What do you guys think of this scenario????

R
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