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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,801
  • May 15, 2012 6:30pm May 15, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting jsr
..........

Many things are hidden just in front of our eyes,.....
Amen brother.

  • #18,802
  • May 15, 2012 8:21pm May 15, 2012 8:21pm
I've posted this chart (monthly, not daily as before) from time to time - it is Jimmy Rogers Commodity Index which is a better indication of where commodity prices are than the CRB Index, IMO.

- from his website: "The value of this basket is tracked via futures contracts on 38 different exchange-traded physical commodities, quoted in four different currencies, listed on twelve exchanges in five countries".

So anyone who thinks Gold should be going higher, anytime soon, isn't watching it - or volumes on the mining stocks that comprise the XAU index which had been kind of lackluster but in recent weeks have been picking up:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RICI.png Size: 51 KB
  • #18,803
  • May 15, 2012 10:10pm May 15, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting lilpip
mon. daily close below weekly support 1559 is noted and tue open 1559 retest was noted, however sis's weekly low held at 28.00 area.
back at $28 area and nearing 1545-49 area eyes open on the 5 min..
tue.daily
1593
1571
1545-49
bounce from tues lows 1545-49 back to retest weekly breakout 1559 noted as she continued trending with a days close below daily low 1545.
We new it was going to be bears south of 1600 but no rotation back ? Just a following day confirmation and thats it ?
silver break of weekly lows 28.00 noted also
  • #18,804
  • Edited 11:38pm May 15, 2012 10:57pm | Edited 11:38pm
Quoting lovepips
Hi lilpip,
I had a look at the weekly charts for the last year and interestingly gold traded between the 1485-1545 range for much of May/June - by the end of June it started rising and reached over 1900 by start of Sept. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if something similar happened this year. See attached chart.

Note: It's my first time using Trading Station and over time will improve my chart drawing facilities. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
From my angle banks needed room to move to make their $ . A break of 1485 was quarterly highs, a break of 1545-1552 was yearly highs and they let the bulls run. We added the whole entire range of the previous year to 1545-52 to end up where we did. As I said around the 1st of Jan. I dont think we'll get a breakout this year or at the earliest maybe 4th quarter for a move up towards 1900 as they have room to move and the bears have the ball, we shall see.
Inserted Video


wed.daily
1583
1559
1535
with eye on response of tue.daily break retest area 1545-49
looking at the 5 min. she's giving that 1535 a good looking over early in the day.
  • #18,805
  • May 15, 2012 11:49pm May 15, 2012 11:49pm
Is our test of 1535 a hold ? Whats that 3rd bar gonna do?
  • #18,806
  • May 16, 2012 4:14am May 16, 2012 4:14am
http://i46.tinypic.com/24cgjdv.png
Attached is the 1 hour chart on gold which shows a downtrend channel but has been supported by the downtrend support level from the channel
  • #18,807
  • May 16, 2012 6:42am May 16, 2012 6:42am
Recently there is no good suggestions about gold trading in this thread.
Even XTRADER has disappeared.
So is there any good professional trader who can give us some useful suggestions?
  • #18,808
  • May 16, 2012 9:13am May 16, 2012 9:13am
I am still here. Been writing for three plus years just needed a little bit of a break.

The market (Gold and Silver) had not been moving much at all in recent weeks up until the recent risk aversion selloff that hit equities risk currencies, and of course commodities.

Actually today's current prices and areas are very important as I will explain in my next post.

Quoting cnnewt61
Recently there is no good suggestions about gold trading in this thread.
Even XTRADER has disappeared.
So is there any good professional trader who can give us some useful suggestions?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,809
  • May 16, 2012 9:14am May 16, 2012 9:14am
Quoting cnnewt61
Recently there is no good suggestions about gold trading in this thread.
Even XTRADER has disappeared.
So is there any good professional trader who can give us some useful suggestions?
think there is no good suggestion here, because in this thread we are learning together.

I'm learn alot here, and i think she (gold) is very unpredictable, because alot of fundamental factor like NEWS, FEAR, GREED would affect her more than technically.

if you look at weekly chart , she is clearly show us triple bottom, and i think it's a good time to start long. (i'm already long at 1535.4 with SL+ at 1538)

hey X where are you? we miss your analysis, (finally you came out here)
Price Action
  • #18,810
  • Edited 10:46am May 16, 2012 10:07am | Edited 10:46am
Outlook for gold and silver has not change. Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is pretty unlikely. That correction is pretty sound and we are still above last year price in May (around 1500).

For silver, at this level, it's starting to be interesting for physical... normally 26$ should be a pretty decent support. Below that and below 25$ especially, it's a big BUY LT...

US is seen as the safe haven right now, but all that is going to change after the election this fall and we know that Obama going to be reelected. So, spend spend spend print print print, nearly 20 trillions of debt !!!

Keep stacking
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #18,811
  • May 16, 2012 10:19am May 16, 2012 10:19am
Safe Haven, not Heaven. That is where the 70 virgins are.

Just announced: Stocks pared their early gains Wednesday following a report that the ECB has halted monetary policy operations to certain Greece banks.
  • #18,812
  • May 16, 2012 10:25am May 16, 2012 10:25am
Gold - Is at a serious cusp of support via moving average, an old down trend line (DTL) as well as STRONG horizontal support.

The chart below says it best.

THe circled area is where the horizontal support is around 1515
Next the price seems to have tested the DTL area
next the 100 Week SMA is there in red.

Thus, there is a feeling this triplex of technicals (if not more) could produce a boost up.

However, the fundamentals being Risk off / risk aversion are hurting the price of gold -- SO -- it is possible we could dip to test 1500.

Yet I am testing out a small long here to see how it goes.

Silver also is nearing two should be strong support areas
one at 27.50 - Here... There was bounce but you can see the manipulators dd away with it thus far and

26.00 Is a strong area where there should be demand.

negatives = chart damage inflicted.. Nothing too serious as of yet.

Positives. This is a discount price for buying physical
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold weely new.GIF Size: 36 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,813
  • May 16, 2012 10:28am May 16, 2012 10:28am
Really when you look back at the gold price it looks like it's just at the near bottom of a long term range with the high as the top
and a suppport perhaps 1500 the bottom//

Not calling any bottoms so we need to just trade what we see!

G/L'

XT
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,814
  • May 16, 2012 10:31am May 16, 2012 10:31am
This dollar strength is completely faulty and synthetic..

Risk is off due to all this same old SHIT we keep hearing about....

Yet it will be on again and when this happens watch out b/c we are gonna see some pairs/ metals soar back up.

Why would anyone want to put all their pie in the USD?

All the job creation?

all the debt?

Al the other BS!

Not sure. It is good for gold to rotate (to quote LP) down and up again.


Quoting Bootleger
Outlook for gold and silver has not change. Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is pretty unlikely. That correction is pretty sound and we are still above last year price in May (around 1500).

For silver, at this level, it's starting to be interesting for physical... normally 26$ should be a pretty decent support. Below that and below 25$ especially, it's a big BUY LT...

US is seen as the safe heaven right now, but all that is going to change after the election this fall and we know that Obama going to be reelected. So, spend spend...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,815
  • May 16, 2012 10:48am May 16, 2012 10:48am
Quoting SunTrader
Safe Haven, not Heaven. That is where the 70 virgins are.

Just announced: Stocks pared their early gains Wednesday following a report that the ECB has halted monetary policy operations to certain Greece banks.

Thanks for the correction !
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #18,816
  • May 16, 2012 1:07pm May 16, 2012 1:07pm
Gold is oversold in most of the time frames from 4 hourly to weekly, which for me is a rare phenomenon. Attached is a chart for my reasoning to buy Gold. Mind the daily closing below 1530

Analysis:

Bullish above 1530 with 1690 & 1800 in sight.

Alternative scenario: A downside breakout of 1530 would open the way towards 1415.

A support base at 1530 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Attached Image
  • #18,817
  • May 16, 2012 2:13pm May 16, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting skbhatia
Gold is oversold in most of the time frames from 4 hourly to weekly, which for me is a rare phenomenon. Attached is a chart for my reasoning to buy Gold. Mind the daily closing below 1530

Analysis:

Bullish above 1530 with 1690 & 1800 in sight.

Alternative scenario: A downside breakout of 1530 would open the way towards 1415.

A support base at 1530 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

false signal
  • #18,818
  • May 16, 2012 2:49pm May 16, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting vladimir.kuc
false signal
Talk sense or dont talk at all... Sayin "false claim" makes no sense... Justify ur reply with supporting studies... The chart and analysis aint for "new to financial markets demo account traders"... All d best buddy
  • #18,819
  • May 16, 2012 3:35pm May 16, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting skbhatia
Gold is oversold in most of the time frames from 4 hourly to weekly, which for me is a rare phenomenon. Attached is a chart for my reasoning to buy Gold. Mind the daily closing below 1530

Analysis:

Bullish above 1530 with 1690 & 1800 in sight.

Alternative scenario: A downside breakout of 1530 would open the way towards 1415.

A support base at 1530 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Do you work at FXCM?
  • #18,820
  • May 16, 2012 3:35pm May 16, 2012 3:35pm
Gold has been "oversold" for more than a week so far. And what has it done, continued to become more "oversold".
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