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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,661
  • May 2, 2012 7:06pm May 2, 2012 7:06pm
What do you guys think of Friday's NFP?

I am thinking NO WAY it makes FFs forecast.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,662
  • May 2, 2012 7:39pm May 2, 2012 7:39pm
I think NFP is mainly non-event at the moment, unless of course it is wildly out of whack, on up or downside of forecast.

As far as a upside breakout anytime soon for Gold, I'm not as optimistic, as volume just isn't showing it. Maybe it will if and when it does break.
  • #18,663
  • May 2, 2012 8:02pm May 2, 2012 8:02pm
Vol is light, yet sometime it is precisely the time when a few biggies step in and drop huge orders raising the price on what was lower volume.

Just a thought.

Quoting SunTrader
I think NFP is mainly non-event at the moment, unless of course it is wildly out of whack, on up or downside of forecast.

As far as a upside breakout anytime soon for Gold, I'm not as optimistic, as volume just isn't showing it. Maybe it will if and when it does break.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,664
  • Edited May 3, 2012 4:15am May 2, 2012 10:15pm | Edited May 3, 2012 4:15am
silver told us what shes thinking and that is we need to get above 30.65-69 if shes going north.
Major single year trend continues to be down from 34.50 area, however with the new monthly timeframe a common pattern is to rotate back to monthly pivot 32.81-89.
Looking at the lesser trends on a weekly and daily
32.60-32.80
31.28-38
29.78-90
thur daily
31.82
30.80
29.78

With golds major single year trend bulls continue to hold the line @ 1598-1600.
The secondary trend, the quarterly acting as resisstance as pivot or trendguide holds the line also @ 1688-89 .
Looking at the may monthly chart, the monthly pivot 1688 lines up with the quarterly pivot area.

weekly
watching 1649 area for direction.
1683-88
1649-55
1622

thur. daily
1670
1655
1642
  • #18,665
  • May 3, 2012 6:02am May 3, 2012 6:02am
Quoting beeb
I don't know what you mean by "classical" TA as opposed to any other kind. And what "mistakes"?

Gold and silver are manipulated markets and IMHO you need to appreciate this in order to understand what is happening. If you don't think TA has been of assistance then I would humbly suggest you look at the thread again in more detail and/or do some more work to hone your analysis.

beeb
i had in mind Murphy , Elder, Wilders, candlesticks in mind when I said "classical " .... and when I penned "mistakes" .. i had in mind the financial crisis , the PIGS etc

really appreciated ur reply .

  • #18,666
  • May 3, 2012 6:29am May 3, 2012 6:29am
was just staring at the above weekly gold chart by jimobiwan...

wherehence the chart is going ... TA-wise , that is .... ?
Attached Image
  • #18,667
  • Edited 7:05am May 3, 2012 6:43am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting TheArcher
was just staring at the above weekly gold chart by jimobiwan...

wherehence the chart is going ... TA-wise , that is .... ?

Again. not wishing to be rude but if it isn't obvious to you where the chart is going, perhaps any correlation that once existed has broken down.......

beeb

EDIT - Or to put it another way there are two possible scenarios:

A - Your TA skills are sufficient to note that there is no correlation
B - Your TA skills are not sufficient to note that there is a correlation
  • #18,668
  • May 3, 2012 7:03am May 3, 2012 7:03am
Last couple of hours Euro & Gold diverged.
  • #18,669
  • May 3, 2012 7:42am May 3, 2012 7:42am
Quoting SunTrader
Last couple of hours Euro & Gold diverged.
A 5 min EUUSD w XAU/USD for comparizon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 min.jpg Size: 187 KB
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,670
  • May 3, 2012 8:13am May 3, 2012 8:13am
About to meet low bollinger band (10) on the Daily. Time for reversal?
  • #18,671
  • Edited 9:29am May 3, 2012 9:19am | Edited 9:29am
NFP tomorrow, French Presidential Election on Sunday and Bank Holiday in London on Monday......

beeb
  • #18,672
  • May 3, 2012 9:27am May 3, 2012 9:27am
Got long Gold at 1635, Weekly trendline bounce between this and descending TL by 1725, TP 1700.00
  • #18,673
  • May 3, 2012 11:52am May 3, 2012 11:52am
Well I see Gold, presently, back within the bearish channel. Yet another lower swing high this past Tuesday and no impetus to move up.

Tomorrow's NFP might do it. As usual, I will wait and see.

$1622-$1620 obvious support, that will need to hold though.

Otherwise we are likely to revisit the year's opening price zone $1566.

Also note Silver breaking $30 hmmm.
  • #18,674
  • May 3, 2012 1:05pm May 3, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting XTrade
Vol is light, yet sometime it is precisely the time when a few biggies step in and drop huge orders raising the price on what was lower volume.

Just a thought.

the next few days are going to be very interesting and although I'm not in the business of fortune telling, I think it is fair to say that should hollande win the french election then we will have a downside move to the euro and quite possibly gold.

I don't expect any bear gold movements to be lasting. However as we all know, movements can be very sharp and in a very short time-frame.

1630 held today and if it breaks on Monday I could see prices fall to 1600....

I could of course be completely wrong :-)




safe trading guys


LP
patience is a virtue
  • #18,675
  • May 3, 2012 8:01pm May 3, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting lilpip
silver told us what shes thinking and that is we need to get above 30.65-69 if shes going north.
Major single year trend continues to be down from 34.50 area, however with the new monthly timeframe a common pattern is to rotate back to monthly pivot 32.81-89.
Looking at the lesser trends on a weekly and daily
32.60-32.80
31.28-38
29.78-90
weekly
watching 1649 area for direction.
1683-88
1649-55
1622
thur. daily
1670
1655
1642
will weekly lows support 29.78-90 area hold and kick rotation back up or continued trending ?
gold
eyes on thur. daily break retest 1642 and maybe even pa and candle formations between 1642-49.
.
  • #18,676
  • May 3, 2012 10:13pm May 3, 2012 10:13pm
Let's see if there is some suggestive positioning in the FX markets for a poor (anti USD ) NFP.

I am taking some small positions now against with one hedge.

TThe turn on aussie / Kiwi, Euro, Cable, may happen tonight to the tune of 50 pips or more. I would not be surprised by a 5:00 AM EST Selloff or a 7:30 AM sellooff of any London anti USD gains. Before the report, things might drop back down to baseline range price.

We'll see.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,677
  • May 3, 2012 10:39pm May 3, 2012 10:39pm
Most of us are tired of inflation.

I don't trust paper, the trust is completely shattered, before the US attack on Afghanistan, Pakistani rupee used to be around 50 Rupees to 1 US$ , now it is 91 Rupees for a single piece of $1 paper.

Iran is doing a good job, we all need to start trading in real money that is gold or silver, if not possible then barter goods against any worthy metals like copper, aluminium, even steel, get rid of paper please !!
  • #18,678
  • May 3, 2012 11:06pm May 3, 2012 11:06pm
And the worst part is that Dollar's own buying power is decreasing so it has double the impact on poor nations.
  • #18,679
  • May 4, 2012 1:05am May 4, 2012 1:05am
http://i48.tinypic.com/vd02s8.png

Attached is the 4 hour chart on Gold which is forming a triangular either waiting for a breakout or bouncing within the triangular consolidation pattern. 1630$ an ounce seems to be a good support level and if broken may determine a further price action downwards...
  • #18,680
  • May 4, 2012 1:28am May 4, 2012 1:28am
Quoting Avinash87
http://i48.tinypic.com/vd02s8.png

Attached is the 4 hour chart on Gold which is forming a triangular either waiting for a breakout or bouncing within the triangular consolidation pattern. 1630$ an ounce seems to be a good support level and if broken may determine a further price action downwards...

1630 was broken...as I'm writing this....
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