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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,561
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:34pm Apr 25, 2012 4:34pm
Hi guys! I'm back , now trading from another country.

Did we have options expiry in silver today?

It was quite a drop! I mean, it is the first time silver touches below $30 since January. It surprised me.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #18,562
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:42pm Apr 25, 2012 4:42pm
Why is it that every Gold bug bullish blogger who has ever written a column talks as if they are the only one who is bullish?

Most market participants, by human nature, are bulls.

Bullish consensus exists always. It just varies with price action. When price drops some bulls leave the market. When uptrend resumes they come back.

Many will wait till we hit $3000.
  • #18,563
  • Apr 25, 2012 10:54pm Apr 25, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting SunTrader
Why is it that every Gold bug bullish blogger who has ever written a column talks as if they are the only one who is bullish?

Most market participants, by human nature, are bulls.

Bullish consensus exists always. It just varies with price action. When price drops some bulls leave the market. When uptrend resumes they come back.

Many will wait till we hit $3000.

But if most participants are bull then why didn't they do much for 20 years straight


Attached Image
  • #18,564
  • Apr 25, 2012 11:31pm Apr 25, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting forexfacts
But if most participants are bull then why didn't they do much for 20 years straight
maybe cause there was no Internet )
  • #18,565
  • Apr 26, 2012 4:55am Apr 26, 2012 4:55am
Quoting forexfacts
But if most participants are bull then why didn't they do much for 20 years straight


Attachment
As I said ..... "When price drops some bulls leave the market" so then the imbalance becomes more to the bears favor.

Price goes higher because of a lack of sellers and vice versa a lack of buyers causes prices to go down - obviously neither level is at zero.

But most participants overall are bullish. What balances things somewhat is that some of the bears have big money behind them.
  • #18,566
  • Apr 26, 2012 8:14am Apr 26, 2012 8:14am
Quoting forexfacts
But again both are possible, first go down then shoot, making a new high
Hi folks,
Yesterdays price/volume movement was very interesting. Price couldn't reach April 4th low and volumes increased - possible bull run beginning?


If the bulls advance, next stops should be fib levels 38.2 & 50 - price ranges 1680-85 & 1700-10.

Let's see how it plays out :-)


LP

oh meant to say ..... great thread http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-vols-and-pa25042012.gif Size: 28 KB
patience is a virtue
  • #18,567
  • Apr 26, 2012 9:17am Apr 26, 2012 9:17am
Quoting lovepips
Hi folks,
Yesterdays price/volume movement was very interesting. Price couldn't reach April 4th low and volumes increased - possible bull run beginning?


If the bulls advance, next stops should be fib levels 38.2 & 50 - price ranges 1680-85 & 1700-10.

Let's see how it plays out :-)


LP

oh meant to say ..... great thread http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Think channel shows trend better and if that is the case it hasn't quite cleared it yet:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold.png Size: 62 KB
  • #18,568
  • Apr 26, 2012 9:33am Apr 26, 2012 9:33am
Quoting SunTrader
Think channel shows trend better and if that is the case it hasn't quite cleared it yet:
Hi Suntrader,
yes the channel does give a good view - we may go down to 1630 range, if that breaks then the bear train should continue south....


trade well

LP
patience is a virtue
  • #18,569
  • Apr 26, 2012 9:33am Apr 26, 2012 9:33am
Quoting SunTrader
Think channel shows trend better and if that is the case it hasn't quite cleared it yet:
Looking at your chart, where do you suppose a burst of short covering would take place?
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,570
  • Apr 26, 2012 9:52am Apr 26, 2012 9:52am
Quoting jimobiwan
Looking at your chart, where do you suppose a burst of short covering would take place?
I don't expect any, although you should always expect the unexpected when it comes to Gold , but if there is any I would think a break above 1685-1690 area would be about right.

What I do expect is for the channel to hold and more chop and another move down. Time will tell.
  • #18,571
  • Apr 26, 2012 10:32am Apr 26, 2012 10:32am
Quoting SunTrader
I don't expect any, although you should always expect the unexpected when it comes to Gold , but if there is any I would think a break above 1685-1690 area would be about right.

What I do expect is for the channel to hold and more chop and another move down. Time will tell.
i am with you on that.

looking to get out of longs at or near 200ema on 4 hr.

attached chart shows the 200ema on 4hr
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 200ema.jpg Size: 165 KB
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,572
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:55pm Apr 26, 2012 12:55pm
Daily fx says:

Falling channel top resistance is now at 1661.66.

Although previous post said it was around 1655.

rozario173
  • #18,573
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:40pm Apr 26, 2012 1:40pm
Check out this TA on Silver

Link

You think it's right? I can kinda see a huge May sell off coming. You think $26 will hold in such an event?
  • #18,574
  • Edited 4:08pm Apr 26, 2012 3:39pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting Lib3rty
Check out this TA on Silver

Link

You think it's right? I can kinda see a huge May sell off coming. You think $26 will hold in such an event?

It's hardly conclusive technical analysis. And who are they anyway? What's their track record?
The site is certainly not at all professional - looks more like it was put together by some kid in his parents' basement...lol

Given that there are approaching 19,000 comments in this thread and many opinions have been expressed and discussed, would you like to explain why you think we will see a May selloff?

beeb

EDIT I've just read it again and IMHO it is utter crap and shows a complete misunderstanding of technical analysis as well as total ignorance of fundamentals affecting precious metals.
PS rather than asking me to explain "why" please take the time to read some of the aforementioned comments and follow some of the links
  • #18,575
  • Apr 26, 2012 9:12pm Apr 26, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting SunTrader
As I said ..... "When price drops some bulls leave the market" so then the imbalance becomes more to the bears favor.

Price goes higher because of a lack of sellers and vice versa a lack of buyers causes prices to go down - obviously neither level is at zero.

But most participants overall are bullish. What balances things somewhat is that some of the bears have big money behind them.

Thanks for your input Suntrader brother

At the moment, looking at the world news, events, confidence level in paper, etc. whenever the metals fall, they fall to be accumulated in more quantity in physical form at lower prices.


$30 for silver seemed to be a good bottom from the top of my head and they actually dropped it to $30

Sometimes the market makes me feel that it is run by the investors only and traders are only the sheep, sometimes, not most of the times, but that sometime is bigger than most of the times
  • #18,576
  • Apr 26, 2012 10:43pm Apr 26, 2012 10:43pm
Hi All, Been a while since I have posted. Just been waiting out this Downtrend since April 12th. I see Gold moving up now for many reasons. Here is my 2 cents.
1. My system has turned up on the daily
2. Price action, lots of pinnish looking candles, the most interesting one being yesterday.
3. We also are seeing lots of divergence on the modified MACd at the bottom.
4. price retraced 75% of the move from 1611 to 1680 with major support being at the 62% level.
5. Price first broke the 1st trendline and now has broken the second.

I am looking for an entry somewhere around 1645ish or a breakout above 1662, which will cross the top of the channel. Target 1815. Stop 1620.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: !gold Daily.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #18,577
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:38am Apr 27, 2012 2:38am
Quoting Sreym33
Hi All, Been a while since I have posted. Just been waiting out this Downtrend since April 12th. I see Gold moving up now for many reasons. Here is my 2 cents.
1. My system has turned up on the daily
2. Price action, lots of pinnish looking candles, the most interesting one being yesterday.
3. We also are seeing lots of divergence on the modified MACd at the bottom.
4. price retraced 75% of the move from 1611 to 1680 with major support being at the 62% level.
5. Price first broke the 1st trendline and now has broken the second.

I am looking...
Yesterday's price movements were interesting. Price went higher, but the volumes decreased by 15-20%... seems to be a lot of negative EU fundamental data this morning which could further drag on gold.

It'll be interesting to see where price goes today.....

trade well,

LP
patience is a virtue
  • #18,578
  • Apr 27, 2012 8:07am Apr 27, 2012 8:07am
Quoting forexfacts
Sometimes the market makes me feel that it is run by the investors only and traders are only the sheep, ....
Then all I can say is we look at different things and everything I see say the opposite.
  • #18,579
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:56am Apr 27, 2012 11:56am
1664... if thats hold we heading north
  • #18,580
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:24pm Apr 27, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting Knight Rider
"que"?

Listen Mr Fawlty, i think gold keep rising higher, but not in short term. In short term i think dollar keep rising higher...comprehende?

Ouch...., Mr Fawlty, why you hit me!
Hi all...

I now think "gold keep rising higher". Good luck with all those short positions.

Best

KR
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