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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #18,081
  • Mar 28, 2012 3:00am Mar 28, 2012 3:00am
Just wanted to post an observation. It looks like the EURUSD may have just flipped the long term downward channel. check it out!
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  • #18,082
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:25am Mar 28, 2012 6:25am
Good cause I am long and bullish!!!!!!!!!


Nice charts

That looks like direct bidding right off a failed test of downchannel re-entry, she might hold.

I think Euro is the top trade in the demo right now after some adjusting of positions
Quoting Sreym33
Just wanted to post an observation. It looks like the EURUSD may have just flipped the long term downward channel. check it out!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,083
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:31am Mar 28, 2012 6:31am
Some shorts are getting covered in the FX market now as the USD is slipping from any gain of yesterday. Let's look for more slipping.....

GOLD:
1675 area seems to be providing support. If you wanted a dip here it is.

Gauge the market today and if it looks right I say go long for test of 1700
again we are working in SMALL Increments here. 15 USD may be a nice day,
not a big move though.

But we NEED TO TAKE 1700 soon.

SILVER:
BACK AT 32.50 after a nice clean test of now 33.00 resistance pivot.
Again you want a dip there it is in the form of Fifty cents.

Look for a breach on 33 and preferably if you are looking to get long now might be a good time.



Not currently supporting any shorts so I have nothing to say for bears.
Sorry

No responsibility assumed. What may be right for me may not for you.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #18,084
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:47am Mar 28, 2012 6:47am
Quoting XTrade
Some shorts are getting covered in the FX market now as the USD is slipping from any gain of yesterday. Let's look for more slipping.....

GOLD:
1675 area seems to be providing support. If you wanted a dip here it is.

Gauge the market today and if it looks right I say go long for test of 1700
again we are working in SMALL Increments here. 15 USD may be a nice day,
not a big move though.

But we NEED TO TAKE 1700 soon.

SILVER:
BACK AT 32.50 after a nice clean test of now 33.00 resistance pivot.
Again you want...
I sold Gold at 1687 last night!I think we will see the test at 1700 if the price can break out 1696!This high level seems to be quite strong resistance!
Buy gold now is quite dangerous!
  • #18,085
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:06am Mar 28, 2012 7:06am
Quoting XTrade
Not picking on you at ALL

BUT I saw a trade you posted the other day,
you got stopped out.

The trade then went 10 USD in your favor.
Had your stop been 3 to 5 USD wider you would have one.

NEVER put stops on pivot lows or swing lows,

If you want a safe safe safe stop put it below the second to last swing low on a higher Time frame, and use support resistance and the channel.

Perhaps we are due for a weekly channel update?

Also, I still DO NOT RECOMMEND trading gold on short term TFs for NOOBS it is borderline account suicide....
Hi X. Don't worry. It's ok. I took my profit @ 1781, just didn't want to go for more, because I think this week is weird, with Bernankes talking 3 times.

I use tight stops for discipline. It makes me wait for a good entry. Also it makes me think and learn. I'm comfortable with this, because I can spot good entry points for 10-16$ trades.

Gold is ranging and even when it is rallying, all of a sudden price can drop. So, for me it is safer selling and buying.

btw I think that trade wasn't mine. If this is the one you are talking about: post5497763

Price reached 1662 and went down to 1628. I could close a 4:1 trade, but price came down and I managed to close 2:1.

I thought there was a break and a test. I bought there. Then I saw there was another triangle, that I didn't see before, which was still in place.

My next trading idea was a bad idea, so it was a good thing to be stopped out.

I'm ok with this. I win more than what I lose, so I can't complain.

It's just my style. Believe it or not. In m1 and m5 charts you can spot supports and resistance for intraday trading. Just zoom out. It is there.

If there is confluence I trade, if I don't see it, I just wait.

Right or wrong, I trade my ideas, but I'm allways asking questions so I can learn from my mistakes.

Thanks for your advice!

Quoting split_unit
If I may add a point, if trading tight stops is your thing, you should ALWAYS have a plan to re-enter. A stop is there to invalidate a trade and not an idea. If the idea proves to be correct you should ALWAYS re-enter. Learning to accept losses and re-enter on good idea is one of the things that made the difference in my trading.
Thanks for tour comments. I use this approach too. In fact, sometimes, If my trade idea is a bad one, and the opposite becomes obviuos, then I take that one.

Being open minded helps a lot.
  • #18,086
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:51am Mar 28, 2012 7:51am
XAU retest of the 18DMA at 1673. I notice this is often the case especially if the PA rockets past the 18DMA on a big range day in one go. It could take another day to reclaim MON's day high.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,087
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:52am Mar 28, 2012 7:52am
Quoting jsr
........

So, for me traders go nuts when he says something.
You can always find points when moves happened after somebody speaks. But just as many times, if not more, when nothing happens when they speak.
  • #18,088
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:04am Mar 28, 2012 9:04am
On H4 price is respecting 38.2 fibo retrace 1673.52...if it breaks thru...next stop is at the 50% retrace which would be 1666.58.

Fibo expansion suggests a bullish break to the 50% fibo expansion...which would be 1703.25....which is also resistance 3....so strong resistance there.

The 1 hr chart is pretty much the same.

30min for sharp entries....right now it is bouncing up off of the 61.8% retrace...if it breaks below that...we have support 3 at 1668.01 and the 76.4% fib at 1666.51....although the price tends not to show to much respect to the 76.4 fib to often.

I am long at 1674...and holding.....will close it around 1700.
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Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #18,089
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:07am Mar 28, 2012 9:07am
crude oil inventories in 20mins...9:30am cst
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #18,090
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:12am Mar 28, 2012 9:12am
Watching 5 min GC:

http://www.screencast.com/t/Hfo0hSlk7EgW

beeb
  • #18,091
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:23am Mar 28, 2012 9:23am
Quoting beeb
"going to 1392 in the next three months" is less than 5%......

What do you think?

beeb

EDIT If you want to relate EW to gold I would suggest googling Alf Field.....

thank you very much for pointing me towards Alf Field ..

his EW is quite close to what I was looking at as posted on :

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post5273726

http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php...-by-alf-field/

...as with all forecasts .... he too chips in thus :

The probability of this analysis being correct is high, perhaps 75%?

so where does this leaves us ...?

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  • #18,092
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:27am Mar 28, 2012 9:27am
Quoting beeb
Watching 5 min GC:

http://www.screencast.com/t/Hfo0hSlk7EgW

beeb
Mr. Beeb,

Are you more of a technical person, pay less attention to fundamentals, or mixture of both?


breeze
  • #18,093
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:30am Mar 28, 2012 9:30am
Quoting fxbreeze
Mr. Beeb,

Are you more of a technical person, pay less attention to fundamentals, or mixture of both?


breeze

As I stated in a previous post I am bullish on fundamentals and will use technical analysis to signpost the way....

beeb
  • #18,094
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:31am Mar 28, 2012 9:31am
Quoting dogbreath
crude oil inventories in 20mins...9:30am cst
Hi breath,

I will like to understand how this factor affect gold.


breeze
  • #18,095
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:32am Mar 28, 2012 9:32am
Quoting beeb
As I stated in a previous post I am bullish on fundamentals and will use technical analysis to signpost the way....

beeb

My apology, Mr. Beeb.

I may have missed the post.


breeze
  • #18,096
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:25am Mar 28, 2012 10:25am
Quoting fxbreeze
Hi breath,

I will like to understand how this factor affect gold.


breeze
normally oil and gold correlate in price.....so if oil goes up or down...so does gold.

today....the inventories of oil were higher than expected....so to much oil means lower prices...supply n demand....so the price of gold went down with the price of oil.
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
  • #18,097
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:25am Mar 28, 2012 10:25am
Looking at the cautious state of market, all i can say is only time will tell



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  • #18,098
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:31am Mar 28, 2012 10:31am
[quote=XTrade;5309727]That's a tough one. No I have not. Take a look here you'll probably get it.



[quote=XTrade;5309727]

“Have you tried watching Au Futures chart with Spot Au chart? Some say the futures move slightly ahead of XAU and can be a precursor of sudden moves.”

That's a tough one. No I have not.

I have the Gold Futures on my chart now. I can tell you they are identical moves so far. Been watching for the last 2 weeks. I dont see Gold Futures jumping before Spot Gold.

Maybe there will be the odd instance where futures jump first....
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #18,099
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:43am Mar 28, 2012 10:43am
Quoting jimobiwan
I have the Gold Futures on my chart now. I can tell you they are identical moves so far. Been watching for the last 2 weeks. I dont see Gold Futures jumping before Spot Gold.

Maybe there will be the odd instance where futures jump first....
¿What about volume? futures should give a better volume analysis, because it is centralized.
  • #18,100
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:59am Mar 28, 2012 11:59am
Quoting jsr
¿What about volume? futures should give a better volume analysis, because it is centralized.
they look the same to me.

i'll post a side by side tomorw. what time frame would be good to compare?
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
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