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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #17,161
  • Mar 7, 2012 7:05am Mar 7, 2012 7:05am
Quoting beeb
thanks

beeb
actually, looking at H1 candles now, if i see one engulfing bearish bar i will short. mkt might be waiting for adp as well, so if it sells off fast after adp i will short too.
  • #17,162
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:20am Mar 7, 2012 8:20am
Quoting forexfacts
....We saw Silver's run to $50, and the drop, it was quick, that is one factor gold's market is very cautious ....
I seriously doubt it.
  • #17,163
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:31am Mar 7, 2012 8:31am
Quoting SunTrader
I seriously doubt it.
We can never be too certain, doubt is a good thing Sir.
  • #17,164
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:40am Mar 7, 2012 8:40am
Quoting Muntu
Short at 1680. Stop at 1684.
Thanks, Muntu
EKO
  • #17,165
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:08am Mar 7, 2012 9:08am
Some price levels for thought.. 1660s-1670s Venus support. Nearest venus resistance is around 1740-1750s 45 degrees from initial support. I am bullish on the AUD and gold.

Below 1660s and 1670s are the 1610-1620s levels.

Attached are the various charts to support some sort of "United Move up".


AUDJPY
85 saturn + mars support next resistance 45 deg. is 90.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD_JPY_cycles.png Size: 64 KB



AUDUSD 1.0500 Saturn and Mars Support line. 45 degrees from there Resistance at 109-110.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_FULL.png Size: 62 KB


Gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Full.png Size: 59 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,166
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:28am Mar 7, 2012 9:28am
Long term 360 Degrees Resistance from the major low on gold at $1520s...

is $2000.
therefore Xtrade's argument for his outlook is totally viable under my analysis as well. .

As long as $1520s hold - Gold should go towards 2000. If it does blow it - it may go to $1410 for a full 360 degrees support since the $1920 high.

But since gold is in an uptrend and 1520 and its whereabouts have been defended - i think its on its way up to the 360 at 2000. Red shows the bearish path, and Yellow shows the bullish path.

Attached Image


to me it looks like a bull market.. but u never know... It could always drop sharply
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,167
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:14am Mar 7, 2012 10:14am
It is, yet the longer the space from the initial break down usually the less power the next break has, as sentiment and speculation begin to change,

Also Gold shorts don't want to be on the ride unless it;s going to happen.

A 10 USD move here and there is not what I mean.

Besides the chart just jumped 8 bucks up.
Quoting Blythe
The risk of another downside swing is still there. If she breaks 1694 today it will open the door for 1770 in very near future
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,168
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:22am Mar 7, 2012 10:22am
Are you scalping? that is an extremely tight stop for either direction asking for the market to wipe it out then move kindly along with your money.

$$$

Quoting UarU
Thanks, Muntu
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,169
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:24am Mar 7, 2012 10:24am
Always an interesting twist to your analysis.
Well done.
Quoting bumapatria
Long term 360 Degrees Resistance from the major low on gold at $1520s...

is $2000.
therefore Xtrade's argument for his outlook is totally viable under my analysis as well. .

As long as $1520s hold - Gold should go towards 2000. If it does blow it - it may go to $1410 for a full 360 degrees support since the $1920 high.

But since gold is in an uptrend and 1520 and its whereabouts have been defended - i think its on its way up to the 360 at 2000. Red shows the bearish path, and Yellow shows the bullish path.

Attachment

to...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,170
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:39am Mar 7, 2012 10:39am
Not scalping, it would have been a good one. Thought resistance would hold.
Now out at BE. Totally agree with you.




Quoting XTrade
Are you scalping? that is an extremely tight stop for either direction asking for the market to wipe it out then move kindly along with your money.

$$$
Patience is magic
  • #17,171
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:40am Mar 7, 2012 10:40am
50 100 200
SmAs

Come together at 1725. Potential target for upcoming sessions potential resistance as well.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,172
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:47am Mar 7, 2012 10:47am
If I can give you a bit of personal advice from experience, you just wasted a trade.

BE is useless and a sure fire way to cut your win rate in HALF.

Trading is risk, the key is to not risk to much or "bet the farm" on every trade.

Sure you win big, but when you lose it will be the end of your account.

----------------------------------------

BACK TO BE.

Putting a trade at break even is basically saying to yourself "ok I have accepted the risk of taking a trade, but not really because I am not willing to lose.

The market almost 100% of the time will come back to average (which are NOT BAD) entries, before moving in its decided direction.Thus, you will be taken out every time at BE and never make any money.

You have to accept loss to be able to win. All BE does is PREVENT BOTH winning and losing.

If the trade you are taking is not good enough that you feel that you need to move your stop (think about the words stop loss- they are intended to stop a loss that could get out of control with no stop) to BE than you should
A. NOT take the trade.
B. Wait for a better entry which offers more favorable risk reward.

Just my two cents.

Quoting Muntu
Not scalping, it would have been a good one. Thought resistance would hold.
Now out at BE. Totally agree with you.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,173
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:51am Mar 7, 2012 10:51am
Quoting XTrade
It is, yet the longer the space from the initial break down usually the less power the next break has, as sentiment and speculation begin to change,

Also Gold shorts don't want to be on the ride unless it;s going to happen.

A 10 USD move here and there is not what I mean.

Besides the chart just jumped 8 bucks up.
Yeap! I think now I'm gonna move SL to 1672 to protect open position. Target is still the same 1715. For SILVER I have 35.45. Where do you think gold will end up if Greece doesn't get required participation rate?
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
  • #17,174
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:52am Mar 7, 2012 10:52am
For selling, i am scalping.

Quoting XTrade
Are you scalping? that is an extremely tight stop for either direction asking for the market to wipe it out then move kindly along with your money.

$$$
EKO
  • #17,175
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:18am Mar 7, 2012 11:18am
oh yeah forgot to mention sivler levels...
33 is current Venus and Pluto support... and 36 is the next resistance.
Attached Image

so any longs i think that is the next target and "watch level" as well.




hey X about "BE" it goes back to the topic of the trading memes of "not giving substantial profit to become substantial loss"

lelts say u got a $100 USD long on Gold btu ur target is around $150 USD (nice one X! ) and then u dont use a BE stop or a +1 or similar techniques. what if the market spikes back and clips $90 USD and u only got $10 USD left in the long? what im saying is that sometimes the market doesnt do what we expect or analyze it to do therefore if we do make a profit aren't we obliged to protect it?

Say u would put a profit stop loss of $30 USD. You are risking profit - i agree that u cant win if u cant risk, but u are risking profit when u move stops to BE or BE+1. in a way i believe one must protect profit even if it means coming back after 1000 pips profit back to ur +1 stop. (of course it would tick u off lol but its much better for ur capital as well for protection correct?)

one thing i do believe is done wrong (in my opinion) is going to BE or BE+1 too fast. market volatility needs to be respected to be able to also respect ur BE stop loss
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,176
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:43am Mar 7, 2012 11:43am
Quoting bumapatria
oh yeah forgot to mention sivler levels...
33 is current Venus and Pluto support... and 36 is the next resistance.
Attachment
so any longs i think that is the next target and "watch level" as well.




hey X about "BE" it goes back to the topic of the trading memes of "not giving substantial profit to become substantial loss"

lelts say u got a $100 USD long on Gold btu ur target is around $150 USD (nice one X! ) and then u dont use a BE stop or a +1 or similar techniques. what if the market spikes back...
Hi, bumapatria,
It is my understanding that the decision to move or not to move SL to BE should be made before entering the trade.
Lehman Sisters Wouldn't Have Failed
  • #17,177
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:49am Mar 7, 2012 11:49am
Honestly this whole Greece thing is a never ending saga. Eventually Germany will bend for the greater good of the Euro and it should resolve itself.

I am beginning to feel it's relation to gold is waning.
It's like the boy who cried wolf except for six months.

Then again, if Greece really fvcks up and get's the boot who knows. I highly doubt the likelihood of that happening.

Quoting Blythe
Yeap! I think now I'm gonna move SL to 1672 to protect open position. Target is still the same 1715. For SILVER I have 35.45. Where do you think gold will end up if Greece doesn't get required participation rate?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #17,178
  • Edited 12:21pm Mar 7, 2012 12:07pm | Edited 12:21pm
Unless you're just scalping, IMHO this is a must-read........

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...Yesterday.html

beeb
  • #17,179
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:34pm Mar 7, 2012 12:34pm
excellent article Beeb...

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,180
  • Mar 7, 2012 1:03pm Mar 7, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting XTrade
If I can give you a bit of personal advice from experience, you just wasted a trade. BE is useless and a sure fire way to cut your win rate in HALF.
regarding BE, my experience is that if price moves up more than the 10 wk avg range, move your stop up to BE or BE +1... just my rule of thumb.
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