XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

The FED will and can keep these rates right where they are for far longer than you expect.

GOLD and Silver will pull back a bit and you will all have a chance to enter the market.

This was and is a very powerful pattern broken and tested the downward LTL
in the technical sense "speaking" then the expected breakout after test was
enforced by fundamentals!!! What! Couldn't be BETTER. For gold that is.

I can't wait to look at swissy! hello 8500

Bemac! Where have you been Good Sir?

Not posting enough for sure.

After today's outcome all I can say is that I can't see a medium - long term target yet. I'm learning intraday trading, and all I can see for now is a change of direction in short term. I expect a bearish move when I see divergence and extensions printing new highs too close to previous ones. Also I expect a bullish move when I see divergence and when lows can't break previous lows.

To be honest I didn't expect that strong move. Obviously i need to learn a lot.

But, this morning it was obvious, from an intraday trader's point of view that price was poised to raise and visit again previous highs. However I didn't expect much more than that.

After 3+ hours in a 4$ sideways market and a bearish fakeout, price went up, retraced to test previous resistance of that 4$ range and went up... and up... and up.


I think that changing my mind, from a scalper point of view to an intraday trader with a much wider awareness is paying off. But it is obvious that I still need to be aware of consequences of news, specially when Bernanke opens his mouth.

this is why i shouldve look at the hourly and NOT the 4hourly for looking at progression in price action.

im better off a day trader than a swing trader. i shoudl look for daytrading opps and IF they grow into swing trades - i let em grow. if not then fcuk it.

i know its hindsight - but it had all the reasons to go long.
i was too frigging biased.

TL and demand zone config u also got a solid bull bar if not an engulfing.+ intraday lunar cycle.

price/time met.
without me.

and with everyone else.
yahoo.


its so noob not to be able to do mtf and up - to - the minute analysis.

and i miss a 40 usd pop even worse.

okay no more negative thoughts - hard to get positive for now but ill try.

Ideally, it should go close to 1800, lets see

By the way people were talking about this chart and that trap, i clearly saw $1700 coming, anybody who has followed gold for sometime could clearly see.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote that I was working on a method for trading Gold(and probably anything else). I have something now that looks to be VERY reliable and I would like to share with the group and get your input. This is about 6 months in the making. My results are good when I follow the rules explicitly but I will not post them as I have been 'playing around' with the rules to fine tune.
I am posting my indicators and templates with a screen shot. Let me explain how it works, it's very simple, which I think is best. BTW I use NO other indicators, no MACD, stochastics, RSI ... nothing. I only look at the forex factory calendar once a day to inform of any big news... like today. If anyone read my earlier post #15823, I used this system for that.

I use the 'trend' indicator as my guide, in fact 3 of them along with a very long term 4th line which is only a reference. The trendline changes color when the trend changes. I have the up direction trend lines colored different shades of blue and the downtrend trend lines colored shades of red. Also, as you can see in the picture, I use heiken ashi candles instead of regular candles.
When all three curves are the same color, (all shades of blue or red)and the heiken ashi (HA) candle closes in the same direction as the curves, the trade is safe to take. Kind of like 'red light'-'green light'. Trade only using the 1 hr chart and use the 30 minute as an early warning of a possible setup. I have a macro program set up on my computer and it sends me a screenshot every 30 minutes to my phone. If there is an entry or exit I can trade on the go!

When the semafor (1,2,3 dots) show up they are a gift. They repaint but they warn of a possible top or a good entry on a pullback in a trend. I don't know exactly how they mathematically figure out to show or not but, thank dredding from Freebie thread for this. I have included another picture and you will see lines drawn thru the points. It is sometimes crazy accurate but a line drawn through 2 points will give the extension of a move. play with it... EDIT: i included some arrows on this image to show where i bought and sold based on the rules.

To further explain the trend curves, short term is a 20 period, intermediate is a 35 and the longer term is 65.
On ENTRY: The '20' color change warns you of a possible setup. The '35' color change gives you more confidence of the trend change and the '65' confirms it.
on EXIT: the '20' - '35' cross tells you to get out or when you see a big 3, start looking for the door.

Watch the '65' curve, it will tell you which direction you should be looking for trades. NEVER trade in the opposite direction of the '65' curve.

This should also work well on a 4hr basis although I am using the 1hr for testing.

EDIT: as always, use proper MM. my suggestion is to set your stops a few dollars(at least) on the other side of the last swing high/low for this method. If you are babysitting the trade you can leave the SL open and the close if the curves reverse on you but if you are waiting for the 3 curves to change, you should have money in the bank at the end of the day.

Anyway, please... if you have time, try it out and send feedback. I think it works great... very promising and profitable and I want to make it better if anyone has suggestions.

Thanks!

nice for the buyers.

do u think the 1700 is a sort of psychological order flow wall in any way?
based on ur experience of course

Wouldn't be looking too far below 1700 area.

purely from a PA perspective the supply formed at support and eventually based and brokeout previously may attract sellers BUT that VERY bullish activity might shoo em off.


(no im not going to sell).

but i do suggest a possible hedge for already those who went long.

or not...

i dont know.

like xtrade has like 3 longs i think - he can use the size of a 1 "long" for just a short hedge or something like that.

he would still profit when price goes up - just less and he would minimize his paper or unrealized virtual loss by price moving down and taking profit away.

just an idea.

And that is a good reason to ......... buy.

Not sell.

Gold that is.

Listen to what everyone is telling you, don't give up... it's all part of learning. If I told you how much money I lost starting this, it would make you feel a lot better. Take a break, but you gotta get back up in the air Maverick!

Thanks for posting your system in detail sounds interesting. I have to read it a few times more to sink in.

Please keep us updated. H1 is my desired day trading and screen watching TF.

Now your talking. We waited, I listened to all perspectives yet, once the line broke for me that was it.

Better op would be to do some updated TA, just start with January, play with some TLs and pick an entry, near or above the TL to make sure you get filled long.

The nice part about a clearer emerging trend like this compiled with a respected technical area (so far) a pattern Breakout! and the fundamentals,
you could justify placing a semi tight stop, (below the tl) not too tight b/c you don't want a london or ny wick to take you out while sleeping (not sure what zone you are in)

Then, if the TL is respected you will be filled long and soon in profit, if it breaks, maybe some retracement and a small short could be justified.

After today, all I would look for is buying opps. Use larger stops and smaller positions.

This was an appx 60 usd move when we have been averaging appx 10 usd a session/day...

Things could start getting wild. And if the pattern fulfills the target is appx 2050 for completion.

Buma, i have 2 small buys with me, one i bought at $1500s and one i bought at $1700s.

I am going to sell one buy of mine when it goes above $1750.

1 buy i "may" hold because i "think" we may go back to $1400s after we go close to $1800, lets see.

Please do your own homework before following anybody's advise, on this thread, keep your ears open to Bemac's words.

im just too scared. to go long anywhere this month.
Dow seems to drop fall and hard. resistance level is where it is now. a pretty massive one in fact. im already short trying to hold till some support is viable. might be a month or more.

as of timing perspective - sun. if you take its position ; venus and mercury's. we are all at fib ratios. sun at 61.8 degrees from november 25 2011 swing - venus at 76.4 degrees - and mercury at 38.2.

its almost a perfect short on the dow.

notice how it had trouble following the momentum like euro and gold did. it had trouble to make progress.

and everyone knows how gold drops recently. BUT (big BUT) when equities drop - its possible that gold rises sharply.
im going to trade the right instrument for this "The dow jones". but not gold - it may or may not react with it.

i follow what i believe is good stuff - and from what ive seen all of you guys are good stuff

nice longs there
yeah Bemac would love to say "i told ya so". hes a good guy - and trader as well. all of you gave me great advice so far - none that i have thrown away at all. thanks everyone for support!

(and i dont call "dont do that" advice

astro cycles aside - based on just a fib expansion dow is floating at a 127.6 extension.
and also attached is a personal cycle work on the dow i made.


i also wonder why the falling volume over the overall rally...
makes me wonder .... is smart money pulling out their longs?
its a volume divergence for sure - price rising on falling volume.

weak holders on longs?
seems weird how the value could rise on falling volume.


okay based on past price action PPA analysis on correlation between indices and gold i am correct. Dow plunged on sept. 25th 2011 for 2000 points and that was when gold rallied till 1920 highs with almost no positive correlation to it.


loosk like u guys are going to have a beauty rally.
while i can get a nice drop.

Buma Brother, This is Business, if you treat it like Business then keep in mind it is gold, and gold is in the bull run, these people have accumulated Tonnes in physical, they would like to see it at $2000 ultimately, but before that we'll see a lot of drama of course.

This is the big picture that i see and i maybe completely wrong

your welcome... that's what its all about right, feeding off one another. please send feedback and i will update.