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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,661
  • Jan 24, 2012 2:45am Jan 24, 2012 2:45am
Quoting XTrade
looks like AU is caught in a range between the 70's right now.
its all a matter of crowd pychology now. fiber at 3000 and gold still at DTL - anything can happen.

i took a short on euro at yesterday daily close - supply level evident in 4h and daily - cycle forecast and natural cycles point for a high and a time to go short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,662
  • Jan 24, 2012 3:08am Jan 24, 2012 3:08am
1671 holds and price reversing up let's see if we can break and hold 1680 to test 1700.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,663
  • Edited 6:02am Jan 24, 2012 5:15am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting XTrade
let's see if we can break and hold 1680 to test 1700.
I hope we do, depending on how the current h1 candle develops im planing to go long.

edit: still seems too early.
  • #15,664
  • Jan 24, 2012 9:02am Jan 24, 2012 9:02am
Good thing you waited.

Now looks like a much better area to buy,

I was expecting this and had mentioned it but will repeat.

The triangle broke and the downward tl.

If the upmove is to continue the line will likely be tested or come close to test.

Thus a stop below 1650 would be wise if the line (broken) is going to offer support for a continued move higher.

Quoting fibbonix
I hope we do, depending on how the current h1 candle develops im planing to go long.

edit: still seems too early.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,665
  • Jan 24, 2012 9:04am Jan 24, 2012 9:04am
Also looking at the H1 chart the recent up and down swing coincide with an older rising channel

Look at jan 12th for the start. We are at the bottom of this mini channel now.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,666
  • Jan 24, 2012 9:13am Jan 24, 2012 9:13am
if it breaks this TL we are freefalling.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,667
  • Jan 24, 2012 9:54am Jan 24, 2012 9:54am
So far it looks like we are rising. that is a nice hourly bar after the minor correction.

SHe's only moving about 10 maybe 15 bucks at a clip.

Silver appx 32.30 at current.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,668
  • Jan 24, 2012 10:21am Jan 24, 2012 10:21am
last night, sold from 75 down to 65... got out. short again at 69 at 11am.
It has a ways to fall still before it breaks upward again. I am anticipating it falling at least until the Fed statement tomorrow, maybe longer, then we'll see it rise.
  • #15,669
  • Jan 24, 2012 10:36am Jan 24, 2012 10:36am
added short on supply level retest. division of time suggest drop and it did.
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i got some addon on some counts as well on 4hourly on some mandelbrot set fractal counts multiplied with fib ratios and pointing to this one particular spot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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i think the UpTL is too steep to maintain a solid stable trend. its not even 45 degrees (stability of price - balances time and price). the downtrendline is more stable and looks to cap price more likely than hold the uptrend.



just my perspective.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,670
  • Jan 24, 2012 10:45am Jan 24, 2012 10:45am
Quoting bumapatria
added short on supply level retest. division of time suggest drop and it did.
Attachment
i got some addon on some counts as well on 4hourly on some mandelbrot set fractal counts multiplied with fib ratios and pointing to this one particular spot.
Attachment
i think the UpTL is too steep to maintain a solid stable trend. its not even 45 degrees (stability of price - balances time and price). the downtrendline is more stable and looks to cap price more likely than hold the uptrend.



just my perspective.

What about the hammer on H4 ?
  • #15,671
  • Jan 24, 2012 10:55am Jan 24, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Walt
What about the hammer on H4 ?
that hammer has the lowest volume ever - therefore i cant conclude based on what i see on volume and chart taht that is a valid buying in progress.

what i see is higher volume on a nice pin even tho volume only up a few ticks its enough to attract more selling.

sure buyers pushed it up - but its rare that a high vol pin appears at the top with a long lower wick.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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and price drops due to "no buying".

again - just my view.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,672
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:06am Jan 24, 2012 11:06am
Seems the daily bar has tested the broken triangle and now a buying wick is forming.

Here's a closeup

Price almost back at 1670
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,673
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:13am Jan 24, 2012 11:13am
Check out the Volume bar on the daily candle.

It's called high volume churn. here is a description of what that means both for buying and selling.

Not a volume expert but trying to learn.

There are some on FF though like MalcomB and another guy I cannot remember - both have threads on trading VSA

"Not sure author"
"High Volume Churn occurs when the bar's volume is large but the bar's range is small. I color price bars blue when there is High Volume Churn. But I color the volume histogram green. I suppose this is a bit odd and illogical, but you don't have to do the same.
You will typically see High Volume Churn bars in 2 places. The first is at market tops and bottoms. The chart above shows a great example where the Better Sine Wave signaled a possible End of Trend ("END" text plotted automatically), which coincided with High Volume Churn (blue paint bars). New selling volume has entered the market and is overwhelming the buyers and preventing price moving up, therefore, keeping the bar's range small.
The second place where you'll see High Volume Churn was beautifully described by Wyckoff as "Jumping the Creek" or "Falling through the Ice". These terms describe similar price action – only "Jumping the Creek" is for up trends and "Falling through the Ice" is for down trends.
At the beginning of an uptrend, there will come a time when price has to break through the last resistance level made on the way down. Typically there will be strong resistance here and the buying volume will have to be large to overcome the selling volume. During this "battle" the range tends to be small and volume large – resulting in a High Volume Churn pattern.
TradeStation EasyLanguage code for the Better Volume Indicator and PaintBar is free and can be downloaded from the feature article (link below).
Good luck with your Emini trading."
No sig by author sorry.
http://emini-watch.com/volume-indica...ume-churn/364/
Quoting XTrade
Seems the daily bar has tested the broken triangle and now a buying wick is forming.

Here's a closeup

Price almost back at 1670
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,674
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:13am Jan 24, 2012 11:13am
disagree - we are very much still inside it. infact we just bounced.
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and here as well 1x1 line on daily charts.
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we just bounced X.


in my perspective we are not breakout and retesting - we are bouncing.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,675
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:15am Jan 24, 2012 11:15am
ATM half the daily bar is now bought.
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,676
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:22am Jan 24, 2012 11:22am
Quoting XTrade
Check out the Volume bar on the daily candle.

It's called high volume churn. here is a description of what that means both for buying and selling.

Not a volume expert but trying to learn.

There are some on FF though like MalcomB and another guy I cannot remember - both have threads on trading VSA

"Not sure author"
"High Volume Churn occurs when the bar's volume is large but the bar's range is small. I color price bars blue when there is High Volume Churn. But I color the volume histogram green. I suppose this is a bit odd and illogical,...
to me its climactic volume - aka the peak of the buying. i mean look at it now rising for a few - and falling volume - less increased interest in buying.

and if u see the MFI's colors (market facilitation index) (these are custom but real colors at bottom).
http://forex-indicators.net/bill-williams/mfi
the blue (custom becomes red) mfi bar:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bluue MF.JPG Size: 61 KB
two days ago
and thebrown (custom is pink) mfi bar - yesterday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mf 2.JPG Size: 73 KB



i mean its all topping patterns X
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,677
  • Jan 24, 2012 3:00pm Jan 24, 2012 3:00pm
In volume and if this is not 100% correct someone please correct me.

When the price is not moving in large numbers like todays ten dollar or so range,
you are going to have peaks and valleys,
the reason being the inconsistency in a one sided biased order being placed.
OR
ONE or TWO massive orders being placed spiking the price then the volume again declines and price declines.

However volume can decrease while price increases if ONE SIDED orders are placed Ie: long or short.
consistently over time.

Both reasons however are the same and present the same Volume action.
Clearly today is a push,
In my book this move is a necessary test of the strength of a MASSIVE WEEKLY SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE .

Don't expect a huge breakout just because a line is always broken it is more the principal and the direction of the broken pattern in this case so far north/long favorable than the reaction at the time of break.

The move to follow is what tells the tale, especially when dealing with the weekly things move slowly.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,678
  • Jan 24, 2012 3:09pm Jan 24, 2012 3:09pm
These are great quotes. But that is not the indicator that I have.

Do you have the specific volume indi that relates to your post?

I love bill williams but don't give two sh!ts about EW.
Too many different opinions of what wave started when why and how and what a b or c move inside a wave we are in.

No use . Yet those who know ELLIOT WAVE well impress me and I welcome you to post a LONG TERM CLEAR and UNDERSTANDABLE chart with a detail of all the wave NUMBERS and letters and why the sequence has changed if the price falls or drops.


B, lol like boy, post the indi if possible or lets find it and try it, wtf. It can't hurt.

We would need a full explanation of every bar and its color.

Quoting bumapatria
to me its climactic volume - aka the peak of the buying. i mean look at it now rising for a few - and falling volume - less increased interest in buying.

and if u see the MFI's colors (market facilitation index) (these are custom but real colors at bottom).
http://forex-indicators.net/bill-williams/mfi
the blue (custom becomes red) mfi bar:
Attachment two days ago
and thebrown (custom is pink) mfi bar - yesterday
Attachment


i mean its all topping patterns X
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,679
  • Jan 24, 2012 3:59pm Jan 24, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting XTrade
These are great quotes. But that is not the indicator that I have.

Do you have the specific volume indi that relates to your post?

I love bill williams but don't give two sh!ts about EW.
Too many different opinions of what wave started when why and how and what a b or c move inside a wave we are in.

No use . Yet those who know ELLIOT WAVE well impress me and I welcome you to post a LONG TERM CLEAR and UNDERSTANDABLE chart with a detail of all the wave NUMBERS and letters and why the sequence has changed if the price falls or drops.


B,...



what will u suggest for gold from 1670 should i open long ???
Anas Farooq
  • #15,680
  • Jan 24, 2012 4:00pm Jan 24, 2012 4:00pm
what the prediction for gold today ???
Anas Farooq
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