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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,601
  • Jan 22, 2012 10:07am Jan 22, 2012 10:07am
One question:

In terms of Elliot Waves, where is gold?
  • #15,602
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:46am Jan 22, 2012 11:46am
Please remind me, does any scalper feature in Schwager's lists of markets wizards?
Patience is magic
  • #15,603
  • Jan 22, 2012 12:46pm Jan 22, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting jsr
I think that I used the wrong term.

I should name it ...
That is why it is so much easier to just say dollars and forget about pips, points, cars, cargo and donkey dung unless the point is not to be clear.
  • #15,604
  • Jan 22, 2012 1:16pm Jan 22, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting XTrade

Let's start with - The potential disbanding of the EURO as a currency as a whole, China owning the US while still manipulating their currency to a peg.
What else, the disaster the US has created for itself in debt and how although people may like it, a strong dollar is NOT good for the economy right now.

.
By this standard there already is a currency crisis. I personally think the idea of the years 2013-2020 being years of strong inflation (more than 5% but less than 25%) is in the cards.

I actually don't think the Euro is likely to disband but it is definitely possible that this will happen. If the Euro does disband, I am pretty sure the effect will be for the USD to spike and for commodities (gold included) to crash as we undergo biggest financial disaster of our life times.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,605
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:24pm Jan 22, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting AaronWard
By this standard there already is a currency crisis. I personally think the idea of the years 2013-2020 being years of strong inflation (more than 5% but less than 25%) is in the cards.

I actually don't think the Euro is likely to disband but it is definitely possible that this will happen. If the Euro does disband, I am pretty sure the effect will be for the USD to spike and for commodities (gold included) to crash as we undergo biggest financial disaster of our life times.
oh man.
us traders should be the most flexible of crises - lets all go out safely if so ever a crisis of that huge a scale happens in the financial markets.

trade safe everyone.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,606
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:34pm Jan 22, 2012 5:34pm
It depends on how pissed the Germans get with things....Concerning Euro.
And how many other countries F-up.

Yes, further inflation seems imminent at this point.

However, even if there was a spike in the USD price, the rate will likely not change for years making it unattractive as a carry trade.

Also it won't fix the US debt crisis or unemployment.

Now, where do you think all these would be Euros will go?
Remember when the Euro tanked to last years low?Gold rose in tandem with the USD. All the Europeans and the UK and countless others where buying enormous lots of physical Gold. Thus, the price rose.

Quoting AaronWard
By this standard there already is a currency crisis. I personally think the idea of the years 2013-2020 being years of strong inflation (more than 5% but less than 25%) is in the cards.

I actually don't think the Euro is likely to disband but it is definitely possible that this will happen. If the Euro does disband, I am pretty sure the effect will be for the USD to spike and for commodities (gold included) to crash as we undergo biggest financial disaster of our life times.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,607
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:41pm Jan 22, 2012 5:41pm
The problem here with this method of scalping is the potential draw down.

The rule should not be risk 300 to make 100 although that is the position scalpers often find themselves in due to counter trend trading and too many open positions, looking to make money quickly one of the fastest (at times) moving markets there is to trade.

Even with scalping, it still should be at least 1:1 or 1:2 risk reward.

If the scalp is long for 100 pips or 1 USD and the trader is in the hole 400 pips or 4 bucks, as a "good" scalper this technically should have been a short. Not a long.

These positions are supposed to be opened and closed within minutes.

Not waiting a day for the price to even out.
Quoting jsr
I think that I used the wrong term.

I should name it microlot (1 pip = 0.01$)


This is the math:


Initial balance $ : 2500,00

Goal : 1%
Goal $ : 25,00

Pips Take Profit :100
Pips Stop Loss :400
.......................
As you said, the key is trading with the trend, in this case, with the bias for that particular day.

And wait until price reaches a known S/R level.

That's the problem. They don't know how to do that. That's why i'm trying to learn a different approach. I forgot to mention that they use the...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,608
  • Jan 22, 2012 6:41pm Jan 22, 2012 6:41pm
Quoting XTrade
It depends on how pissed the Germans get with things....Concerning Euro.
And how many other countries F-up.

Yes, further inflation seems imminent at this point.

However, even if there was a spike in the USD price, the rate will likely not change for years making it unattractive as a carry trade.

Also it won't fix the US debt crisis or unemployment.

Now, where do you think all these would be Euros will go?
Remember when the Euro tanked to last years low?Gold rose in tandem with the USD. All the Europeans and the UK and countless others where...
My take is that during last year (I assume you really mean 2010) crisis what happened is that the Euro decoupled from risk assets. Equity and commodity markets rose while the Euro fell.

Nothing is going to fix the US debt crisis except an extended bout of inflation or default. I am betting on the first.

The US unemployment crisis is really a function of global labour markets and can not be solved until wages for workers in developing nations is roughly on par with those of the US. In reality this is closer than you might imagine (10-15 years I think) but it is going to be a long, slow slog.

As for outraged Europeans seeking to leave the monetary union... I totally agree that if they really wanted to leave they would. But do they want to? I can find a lot of reasons to suppose they might but not a lot of evidence to suggest they actually do. They are hell bent on fiscal union.

A massive spike in the USD will naturally be followed by a crash fo the USD. If the Euro actually collapses I imagine it to be something like 2008 on steroids.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,609
  • Jan 22, 2012 6:45pm Jan 22, 2012 6:45pm
uh?
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/blog/201...onfluenze.html
http://gyazo.com/95517348ff83132bc9e83c41a3b4b8cc.png
{Promotion Removed}
  • #15,610
  • Jan 22, 2012 7:52pm Jan 22, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting AaronWard
My take is that during last year (I assume you really mean 2010) crisis what happened is that the Euro decoupled from ......
+ 1
  • #15,611
  • Jan 22, 2012 8:48pm Jan 22, 2012 8:48pm
Interesting to see XAU/EUR's currenct juncture...

Daily Chart - Just broken multi-month consol.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURXAU Jan 23.png Size: 84 KB


4Hr - Continuation H & S with strong convergence

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURXAU b Jan 23.png Size: 183 KB


Strong possibility that this technical break could assist in the break of XAU/USD's triangle pattern of the left shoulder is overcome.
  • #15,612
  • Jan 22, 2012 8:51pm Jan 22, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting SunTrader
+ 1
Not a lot of evidence in 2011 that a Euro crash produced a gold rally.

At first everything rallied but USD, then Euro crashed, followed by Equities and then gold. Gold closed flat on where it was when the Euro started to crash (May 1). Further once the Euro crash really got underway in September and then again in November Gold mostly followed the Euro south.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,613
  • Jan 22, 2012 9:40pm Jan 22, 2012 9:40pm
When we talk of manipulation, the year 1980 was 32 years ago, the market of today is very very cautious in my opinion.


Attached Image




And if we think gold is going to have a free fall, we must look at this historical chart first, you see the rise is not sudden, it is spread into years, this shows the confidence in gold.


Attached Image
  • #15,614
  • Edited 10:35pm Jan 22, 2012 10:12pm | Edited 10:35pm
Looking at silver
Although looking at a single monthly chart an area of extra interest is the 32.70-90 area, however looking at mon. daily eyes are on 32.54 areas response and also a retest of fri daily and weekly breakout 31.10 -20.
mon daily
32.54
31.10-20
29.90
  • #15,615
  • Edited 11:09pm Jan 22, 2012 10:15pm | Edited 11:09pm
definitely interest in the 32.90 area and we are approaching!
Quoting lilpip
Looking at silver
Although looking at a single monthly chart an area of extra interest is the 32.70-90 area, however looking at mon. daily eyes are on 32.54 areas response and also a retest of fri daily and weekly breakout 31.10 -20.
mon daily
32.51
31.10-20
29.90
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,616
  • Jan 22, 2012 10:17pm Jan 22, 2012 10:17pm
That rise was due to the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the physical silver market - look it up, interesting read, sure you'll find a link in no time.
Quoting forexfacts
When we talk of manipulation, the year 1980 was 32 years ago, the market of today is very very cautious in my opinion.


Attachment



And if we think gold is going to have a free fall, we must look at this historical chart first, you see the rise is not sudden, it is spread into years, this shows the confidence in gold.


Attachment
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,617
  • Edited 10:40pm Jan 22, 2012 10:24pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting kikkofrio
uh?
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/blog/201...onfluenze.html
http://gyazo.com/95517348ff83132bc9e83c41a3b4b8cc.png
another nice picture thats worth a thousand words .
  • #15,618
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:16pm Jan 22, 2012 11:16pm
Hi everyone, will price continue or reverse?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold23jan12.png Size: 56 KB
  • #15,619
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:22pm Jan 22, 2012 11:22pm
If you read back a few pages you will know everyone's views.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,620
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:23pm Jan 22, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting XTrade
That rise was due to the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the physical silver market - look it up, interesting read, sure you'll find a link in no time.
Thanks X man, i am going to search Hunt brothers

and what about gold, gold's 850 of that time, was it only following silver ?
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