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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,581
  • Jan 21, 2012 12:59pm Jan 21, 2012 12:59pm
Quoting AaronWard
Just based upon that article you need to downgrade inevitable to probable or possible.

I would also say that the fed has an ongoing policy of stealth QE... sort of an ongoing guerrilla warfare against USD strength. However, things are going to have to get really bad before they have justification for an official round three.

IMO key triggers for QE3 would be a massive fall of the equity markets, a massive rise of the USD and a massive rise in unemployment. Currently we have rising equity markets, falling unemployment and a mildly bullish...
I don't personally have conviction one way or the other as to the probability of QE3 at this stage. My point is that many see it as an inevitability with solid rational arguments as to why.

I just think it is a bit unreasonable to argue it is "unlikely".

Don't take that personally - just my perspective on the issue.
  • #15,582
  • Jan 21, 2012 1:24pm Jan 21, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting AaronWard
I would also say that the fed has an ongoing policy of stealth QE... sort of an ongoing guerrilla warfare against USD strength. However, things are going to have to get really bad before they have justification for an official round three.

IMO key triggers for QE3 would be a massive fall of the equity markets, a massive rise of the USD and a massive rise in unemployment. Currently we have rising equity markets, falling unemployment and a mildly bullish USD.
Cheer Wheels,

I won't take it personally. Quite the reverse. Steel sharpens steel.

I post because I am uncertain and find putting my thoughts into words helpful. Other people challenging these thoughts helps me. In fact, as far as I am concerned, it is just about the best thing that can happen when I post.

But I have quoted my rational arguments against an immediate round of QE for your reference.

Aaron
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,583
  • Jan 21, 2012 1:40pm Jan 21, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting AaronWard
Cheer Wheels,

I won't take it personally. Quite the reverse. Steel sharpens steel.

I post because I am uncertain and find putting my thoughts into words helpful. Other people challenging these thoughts helps me. In fact, as far as I am concerned, it is just about the best thing that can happen when I post.

But I have quoted my rational arguments for QE for your reference.

Aaron
Good stuff. I was trying to agreeably disagree. Your arguments regarding QE noted.

I don't really see how any of problems beyond the subprime crisis have been resolved. There are a ton of factors weighing down the global economy and a high USD index won't help the American economy moving forward.

I also see the debt ceiling debate on the horizon - repeatedly and at more frequent intervals in the future. Not sure if the Fed will ever be able to raise the interest rate much in the future without some serious structural changes to US government debt.

I'm also curious whether we'll see a stealth play that staves off the euro's decline by selling dollars for euros.


This is all speculative and none of it a great argument. I just don't see what has changed fundamentally that would lead me to believe that the amount of growth that would be necessary to remove the threat of repeated debt crises and rounds of crushing austerity.

The idiocy of the public (and regrettably some who frequent this forum) with respect to austerity is always alarming. Government purchases (whether office supplies, capital equipment, or major investments) have always and continue to keep the economy humming along. The fools who believe that austerity won't cause disastrous economic fallout don't operate in the real world.

I don't mean to be a negative nancy, but Western governments need a structural solution, not more bonds. Until a real solution arrives, the austerity required to get fiscal houses in order will be a CRUSHING blow to the private sector.

The MSM and "most" Republican voters just don't get it. Cutting government spending hurts the private sector just as much as it does those public service employees with their gold plated pensions.
  • #15,584
  • Jan 21, 2012 3:07pm Jan 21, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting Wheels
Good stuff. I was trying to agreeably disagree. Your arguments regarding QE noted.

I don't really see how any of problems beyond the subprime crisis have been resolved. There are a ton of factors weighing down the global economy and a high USD index won't help the American economy moving forward.

I also see the debt ceiling debate on the horizon - repeatedly and at more frequent intervals in the future. Not sure if the Fed will ever be able to raise the interest rate much in the future without some serious structural changes to US government...
I agree on all points. Sorry I couldn't be more helpful.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,585
  • Jan 21, 2012 4:37pm Jan 21, 2012 4:37pm
1. Double top happened and is over.
2. Gold is actually slightly less volatile ATM moving avg 20 USD instead of 50
3. Yes Trend channel overshoot, turned to correction, turned to support, turned into a month of upwards movement so far.

4. The descending TL is too sharp to maintain itself just the same as the rise was. Now as it always does the price is working it's way towards the middle 1500 - 1900 and I see resistance at 1700 leaving 200 USD flexible on both sides.

The descending line is also old now and to say that for the past seven months we have been in range is kind of ridiculous considering you are leaving out
the past lets just say 2 years prior when in December 2009 we were at almost 1025, went to 1920 and now have kept 650 USD of that move at current. On each ozt that is not bad. Considering you also could have walked away at 1900 nearly doubling your money all for simply holding a position.

ADDING
No 5.
Twice rejected of a maintained breach of the current channel on the bearish side.
Don't forget there is a TON of support below the channel and there can be as many signals as you like, but, if they don't follow through,
you don't get a reversal.

Time will tell.

Just giving you the other side of the coin as you said you like to hear.

I see a worldwide currency crisis as Gold positive and even more silver positive.

Also, the USD is only bullish against certain pairs.
AUD/USD no
EUR/USD yes.
USD/JPY no
GBP/USD maybe not....

THings are skewed and at this rate of fixing the "problems that be" ie: unemployment, etc. The US is not much further going down the tubes than the EUzone might be. It's just more smoke in mirrors.

Quoting AaronWard
Standard reversal signals include:

1. double top
2. extreme volatility
3. trend channel overshoot
4. new, strong decending trend line

However, the most important condition, failing to break the rising trendline did not happen. So major bull trend is still in place.

For the last seven months we have have been in a range. All positions taken since June with a TP of 1.670 (long below and short above) would now be profitable.

What happens next... I really don't know, but I do know that a number of the medium term fundamentals are...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,586
  • Jan 21, 2012 4:50pm Jan 21, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting jsr
By the way, i use to scalp gold, as the one who taught me does that.

Believe it or not, he is profitable scalping gold, many trades of 100 pips, high leverage, but some of my friends after many succesful trades, have longs opened @ 1730 and 1720, so their trades have been almost 20000 pips down because they use to trade without stop loss, and december's fall caught them.

Please tell us more about scalping gold. Naked charts or any indicators?

Pips are always confusing when talking about gold, probably better to talk in dollar moves.

I presume the scalping targets are US$1 (100 points), that the current drawdowns are around $100 and have been down to -$200?
  • #15,587
  • Edited 5:38pm Jan 21, 2012 5:15pm | Edited 5:38pm
For my method - the best way is to shoot for a 1 to 3 USD target. edit: really 2 to 5 USD

Yes this can be profitable if you are trading 1 to 5 standard lots.

Yet, now more and more brokerz are using a floating spread. and the SAFEST time to scalp Gold is in a slow market.

Identify minor supports and resistances or and use an EMA like the 21 that the short term price traders follow.

THen just buy and sell when you see fit. ie: sell the resistance / buy support / sell when the price comes back to the ma or buy when it dips down to it. You can also just read the Price action, since the moves are such a small fraction of the daily average you don't need too many indis if any.

ALWAYS best to scalp in the direction of the trend incase you catch a breakout.

The more trades More trades more margin for error and loss.

Problem with floating spread is if it's 80 pips to enter a trade in a slower market, you are paying the broker a heck of a lot to scalp.

In a volatile market a tight stop is your friend - so you don't get caught on some news you were unaware of and slaughtered.

Here is a post I made on translating pips using 10 USD moves for all lot sizes

Quoting ikdenk
Please tell us more about scalping gold. Naked charts or any indicators?

Pips are always confusing when talking about gold, probably better to talk in dollar moves.

I presume the scalping targets are US$1 (100 points), that the current drawdowns are around $100 and have been down to -$200?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,588
  • Jan 21, 2012 5:16pm Jan 21, 2012 5:16pm
By the way welcome to the thread and feel free to share your input as you have been
X
Quoting AaronWard
Lol, battle of the trend lines. Do the same on the monthly chart and once again it closes beneath the trend line.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,589
  • Jan 21, 2012 5:58pm Jan 21, 2012 5:58pm
When will she break 4 USD....

This would put strain (further) on industrializing nations. Yet they will probably come up with some mix of shit, like zinc, copper and lead as a sub if the price gets too high.....

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metal...-60d-Large.gif
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,590
  • Jan 21, 2012 6:10pm Jan 21, 2012 6:10pm
Quoting XTrade
For my method - the best way is to shoot for a 1 to 3 USD target. edit: really 2 to 5 USD

Yes this can be profitable if you are trading 1 to 5 standard lots.

Yet, now more and more brokerz are using a floating spread. and the SAFEST time to scalp Gold is in a slow market.

Identify minor supports and resistances or and use an EMA like the 21 that the short term price traders follow.

THen just buy and sell when you see fit. ie: sell the resistance / buy support / sell when the price comes back to the ma or buy when it dips down to it....
Thanks X.

What timeframe do you use to scalp on?

I use 5 minute tf, aiming for a tp of $3 in a $5 move between fixed levels of $0 and $5 (say between $1650 and $1655). You might have seen some of these Golden Dustbins I posted earlier.

I am now considering using a 1 minute tf, aiming for a tp of $1 in a $2 move.
Gold seems to move in $2 even waves (say from $1650 to $1652).

I have used 20 ema on eurusd successfully, particularly on retracements away from it, with the current trend. 21 ema must be due to inflation, lol!
  • #15,591
  • Jan 21, 2012 6:13pm Jan 21, 2012 6:13pm
Quoting XTrade
1. Double top happened and is over.
2. Gold is actually slightly less volatile ATM moving avg 20 USD instead of 50
3. Yes Trend channel overshoot, turned to correction, turned to support, turned into a month of upwards movement so far.

4. The descending TL is too sharp to maintain itself just the same as the rise was. Now as it always does the price is working it's way towards the middle 1500 - 1900 and I see resistance at 1700 leaving 200 USD flexible on both sides.

The descending line is also old now and to say that for the past seven...
With China holding so much US debt and buying up so much Gold as a hedge due to the Feds money printing which will only devalue the currency I would not at all be surprised to see gold shoot above 2000 in no time. We are in unprecedented times and this bull run while quite rapid and seemingly advanced maybe just starting. China seems to be holding all the cards. Jewelry sellers are still advertising for gold in a major way as they can see the writing on the wall.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #15,592
  • Jan 21, 2012 9:58pm Jan 21, 2012 9:58pm
Quoting XTrade
1. Double top happened and is over.
2. Gold is actually slightly less volatile ATM moving avg 20 USD instead of 50
3. Yes Trend channel overshoot, turned to correction, turned to support, turned into a month of upwards movement so far.

4. The descending TL is too sharp to maintain itself just the same as the rise was. Now as it always does the price is working it's way towards the middle 1500 - 1900 and I see resistance at 1700 leaving 200 USD flexible on both sides.

The descending line is also old now and to say that for the past seven months...
all valid points. thanks.

You run a great thread. thanks again

I see the critical S/R as 1675 which is a bit below 1700, but really the 1620-1700 seem to be a cluster of S/R lines.

By currency crisis do you mean hyperinflation?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #15,593
  • Jan 21, 2012 11:55pm Jan 21, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting ikdenk
Please tell us more about scalping gold. Naked charts or any indicators?

Pips are always confusing when talking about gold, probably better to talk in dollar moves.

I presume the scalping targets are US$1 (100 points), that the current drawdowns are around $100 and have been down to -$200?
FXCM's spread in gold is 50 pips. Fixed.

My friends use m1, m5 and m15 timeframes, macd, bollinger bands, rsi and Heiken-Ashi candles.

m1 is the trading tf.

I don't like Heiken-Ashi. So i don't use it. But it helps them to filter noise.

To clarify: 1$ move = 100 pips.

each lot = 0.01$.

One of my friends started with a 2500$ account. She was working for 100 pips a day,

Her balance 45 days ago was 4000$.

This is the trick: opening "balance/100" lots.

With a balance of 2500$ you open 25 lots.

So 100 pips = 25$.

If your balance is 4000$ then you open 40 lots and so on.

in other words: you make 1% of your account with a successful 100 pips trade.

In the other hand, if you don't work with stop loss, with that leverage you have 8000 pips (80$ move) or so before you get a margin call.

Most times they close at their targets. But sometimes price go against them 10$ or 20$ moves before they can close their trades.

When price went down in December she was half way to get a margin call, so when price was @ 1700 or so she opened a hedge.

It is a hedging account from UK, so she can open long and short trades at the same time.

And that's it.

There are three friends of mine using that leverage, including the one who taught us.

The others use a more conservative leverage.

In the other hand, i don't like that risk.

Once or twice I've been scalping and the market went against my trade 2000 pips in 10 seconds or less. Enough of that. When you are scalping with that leverage that move is pretty scary.

I want to trade 1:2 risk/reward ratio. So i need info they don't use.

I know very well how a margin call sounds like.

Truth is that you can work to spot one and only one operation per day, with low risk. But it takes just one mistake to get in trouble.

Even you can do it using a 400 pips SL, which i use to get 100 pips.

When i was not using SL i used to make 700-1200 pips a day, scalping.

Then i decided to use SL, so now i open less trades.

Still, i'm not doing what i am supossed to do: One trade per day, because i'm tired to work with a microscope not being aware of the big picture.

It's a high risk strategy, but it can be done. In fact, i'm sure that you guys, can do it better because you have a wider knowledge of price behaviour.

So at the end i want to scalp and return to this, but first i want to learn to trade higher timeframes.
  • #15,594
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:55am Jan 22, 2012 4:55am
FF don't count on 1400.

We are already back in channel going for 1700.

14 would put the channel at current in jeopardy - if you are bullish you don't want this price unless you are buying real metal.

Quoting forexfacts
Bemac never give us any calls, but his signals are enough for us, he said he is long, if a man like Bemac is long, i am long, just waiting for my 3rd shopping in the $1400s.

By the way i am very new to gold, just following the prices for the past 7 - 8 years that is why i am not going to expose more than 10% or 20% of my Investments to metals.

Shoe polish boy worries me.

Still $2000 isn't out of question, what else is shining more than gold ?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,595
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:05am Jan 22, 2012 5:05am
In response to what I have bolded.

If you are using all or most of your available margin on a trade.
IE (even though it's wrong) 40 lots on 4k
You are seconds from a margin call. something is screwy with the math there.

2 and 3 - that's why rule one of a pro scalper should always be to buy or sell in the direction of the prevailing trend and if using support and resistance, which is HUGE with gold, use tight stops.

Indicators all lag, Price action and experience are the best tools for scalping.

To me after beginning paper trading synthetic gold I decided scalping was a waste of time, unless you have a constructed plan as you say your friends do.

I would rather catch a 100 to 500 usd move scaling in and out.
that's me though.
when the market is dead i will scalp.
Quoting jsr
FXCM's spread in gold is 50 pips. Fixed.
.
My friends use m1, m5 and m15 timeframes, macd, bollinger bands, rsi and Heiken-Ashi candles.

m1 is the trading tf.

I don't like Heiken-Ashi. So i don't use it. But it helps them to filter noise.

To clarify: 1$ move = 100 pips.

each lot = 0.01$.

One of my friends started with a 2500$ account. She was working for 100 pips a day,

Her balance 45 days ago was 4000$.

This is the trick: opening "balance/100" lots.

With a balance of 2500$ you open 25 lots.

So 100 pips = 25$.

If...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,596
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:14am Jan 22, 2012 5:14am
When and if I scalp I use 5 and 15 minute TFs.

The one minute chart is pointless to me as the moves are too erratic especially on a volatile day as well as the fact that there is TOO MUCH NOISE.

When I go Higher TF things make more sense.

I also maintain - even though i dont trade them - from reading about major stock setups and patterns the longer the TF the stronger the explosion.
Long or short.

A very simple way to scalp Gold is looking for
A. A breakout of resistance. So yes buying the "top" is not bad.
B. A support pullback failure, thus selling the low is not wrong.

Gold tends to get itself into a pattern and then spawn what they call orphans of the pattern, or mini likewise patterns in the price action.

Bull and bear flags / pennants are great to play,
Gartleys
nd of course a classic H and S reg or inverse.


I shoot for 2 to 5 but if I catch a breakout I won't close the scalp I will ride it for the rest of the day. even though that should be against the rules.

Quoting ikdenk
Thanks X.

What timeframe do you use to scalp on?

I use 5 minute tf, aiming for a tp of $3 in a $5 move between fixed levels of $0 and $5 (say between $1650 and $1655). You might have seen some of these Golden Dustbins I posted earlier.

I am now considering using a 1 minute tf, aiming for a tp of $1 in a $2 move.
Gold seems to move in $2 even waves (say from $1650 to $1652).

I have used 20 ema on eurusd successfully, particularly on retracements away from it, with the current trend. 21 ema must be due to inflation, lol!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,597
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:22am Jan 22, 2012 5:22am
You all are quite welcome and everyone's thank yous are appreciated.
I will have to touch on this subject later in the day, I am up a bit earlier than I like.

Ever since starting to trade currencies and spending a lot of time during london,
I wake up at around 3something and 545. Then try to sleep more if possible.

---------

Let's start with - The potential disbanding of the EURO as a currency as a whole, China owning the US while still manipulating their currency to a peg.
What else, the disaster the US has created for itself in debt and how although people may like it, a strong dollar is NOT good for the economy right now.

I would actually like to see swissy at 75 cents... There's a lot more and then how gold plays into this whole game. AND what I call the ultimate win win for higher gold prices.
Quoting AaronWard
all valid points. thanks.

You run a great thread. thanks again

I see the critical S/R as 1675 which is a bit below 1700, but really the 1620-1700 seem to be a cluster of S/R lines.

By currency crisis do you mean hyperinflation?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #15,598
  • Edited 7:22am Jan 22, 2012 6:54am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting bumapatria
when gold crashed from 1920 - how did it feel like really to go long for a very long time then know that the gold market is crashing?
was it 'normal' feeling?
how did you feel?
any trades occured in the period? successes and failures?
id like to know for experience sharing purposes thanks
Gold did not crash, the talking heads and their hype will have you believe that just as some of the analyst in the news said that silver was the new hot item and that it looks like we should start buying at $47.
However, the owner of the market let price remain within its normal manipulated market structure. (As given the fact all the buying and no room to make money allowing the rise, short they were all the way up.
With room to move (make money) they sent both silver and gold south
shorting all the way up and collecting all the way down,their mission was accomplished.)
Myself, I posted more than once trading above 1551 and we are going to 1936 and once in the area I specifically mentioned to take partial profits from 1495-1551 and 1600 area after reaching this extended high as we were going back to test the yearly breakout at 1551. As we dial in on the smaller weekly timeframe she hit the weekly highs 1922, began rotating back and dropping below daily trend guide.
Its a pattern no different than silvers the last 2 years.
The cycles continue, same above as below, meaning just on any smaller timeframe such as a 5 min. moving higher by the length of its previous 5 min. range.
My thoughts you ask ?
Although we come to know their habits and patterns we follow the lead of the candles and pa as thats how were shown direction. If you want you can throw some indicators up to confirm in your mind what you've seen.
Nothing goes strait up and strait down. Last year we extended out to the extended yearly highs and shes rotated back looking for support for 2012 and as of the beginning of the year she has.
Will the yearly pivot 1600 hold ?
Will the monthly, quarterly, and now weekly lining up with the 1629-32 area hold allowing price to push up?
Your chart that was posted it shows its about decision time, on whether we continue up or not.
All we can do is take it a day at a time.
So, keep your eye on your daily.
From my angle its trend guide for monday is 1655 and dont forget about watching sis for clues as gold followed as she went to her fri. daily trendguide and pushed up with gold following.
  • #15,599
  • Edited 8:36am Jan 22, 2012 7:45am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting XTrade
In response to what I have bolded.

If you are using all or most of your available margin on a trade.
IE (even though it's wrong) 40 lots on 4k
You are seconds from a margin call. something is screwy with the math there.
I think that I used the wrong term.

I should name it microlot (1 pip = 0.01$)


This is the math:


Initial balance $ : 2500,00

Goal : 1%
Goal $ : 25,00

Pips Take Profit :100
Pips Stop Loss :400

Stop Loss $:100,00
Risk : 4%

(Micro)Lots to open :25
$ x pip :0,25

Margin used x Lot $ :4,00
$ x Lot :0,01

Used Margin $ :100,00
Usbl Margin $ : 2400,00

With no Stop Loss :

Margin Call @ :10%
UsblM - %MC $ :2160,00

Usbl Margin in Pips : 8640
Pips before MC :8240

As you said, the key is trading with the trend, in this case, with the bias for that particular day.

And wait until price reaches a known S/R level.

That's the problem. They don't know how to do that. That's why i'm trying to learn a different approach. I forgot to mention that they use the Pivot indicator an that's all their reference for S/R levels.

They use Heiken-Ashi, macd and rsi as triggers, and sometimes they open trades in no man's land.

I don't like being in a trade with a 10$ move against me when i'm scalping.

So i'm learning S/R framework to begin with.

Don't get me wrong, they close in positive more than 90% of their trades.

It's not that difficult.

But one shitty trade with no stop loss and you are screwed. And that means a lot of pressure in your head and very negative emotions.

Of course, there is an alternative. You can hedge and wait. But that's another story, and i don't like to hold what was supposed to be a scalping trade a whole month just waiting for the price to come back.
  • #15,600
  • Jan 22, 2012 8:49am Jan 22, 2012 8:49am
Quoting lilpip
Gold did not crash, the talking heads and their hype will have you believe that just as some of the analyst in the news said that silver was the new hot item and that it looks like we should start buying at $47.
However, the owner of the market let price remain within its normal manipulated market structure. (As given the fact all the buying and no room to make money allowing the rise, short they were all the way up.
With room to move (make money) they sent both silver and gold south
shorting all the way up and collecting all the way down,their...
thnanks for ur reply. to me it looked good enough to be called ' a crash'. it looks epic the rally - then the drop.


yeah im always watching this daily - on whatever timeframe ur looking at we are quite the bouncing around weekly r1 and some minor levels.. 5+ days and high ddaily volumes might mean buying climax and supply entering. thats my perspective on it and every time i trade my cycles with price action techiques with TL's or levels or harmonic ratios - volume - supply/demand is the flow of the movement of price. high volume nearing a resistance might mean climax and distribution to come - thats what im thinking anyways .the fact that the bears managed to push price downwards and below daily open shows confidence (at least to me). and high volume might mean a lot of contracts of sells being opened.

if anyone is going to argue bout forex volume bla bla and ticks - tick volume has been treating me well so far - many say its close to the 'real thing'.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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