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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #15,181
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:37am Jan 10, 2012 8:37am
covered all at 33.80
  • #15,182
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:46am Jan 10, 2012 8:46am
is 1.630 a good entry? or is it to early!
  • #15,183
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:46am Jan 10, 2012 8:46am
30 min had divergence with bearish engulfing and key reversal following, it's gonna be a while/take some convincing evidence before I try to scalp this from the long side.
  • #15,184
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:09am Jan 10, 2012 9:09am
Quoting bumapatria
xtrade this is not mumbo jumbo dont ban me .
as wheels was asking - i cant really tell why but its harmony. why? how am i supposed to know? i know its in harmony though

No offense, Buma, but I'm not asking why.

I'm asking for statistically significant evidence of a correlation between lunar cycles and price action.

What you posted does not qualify.

Even if you found a weak correlation where probability of error was 10%, I would be intrigued, but I am guessing that there is absolutely no evidence that the lunar cycle is related to trading.

I encourage you to continue your work if it has been fruitful, but like so many on this forum (Forex Factory in general), you seem to mistake random for correlation.

Statistically significant correlations between price action and another variable, even for a short period of time, are difficult to find. Relying on fundamentals, data (such as COT), and the notion that others are going to trade the same technical patterns you see - I think these are what we have to work with.

The moon? Not so sure. I try to be open minded though.
  • #15,185
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:16am Jan 10, 2012 9:16am
Quoting Wheels
No offense, Buma, but I'm not asking why.

I'm asking for statistically significant evidence of a correlation between lunar cycles and price action.

What you posted does not qualify.

Even if you found a weak correlation where probability of error was 10%, I would be intrigued, but I am guessing that there is absolutely no evidence that the lunar cycle is related to trading.

I encourage you to continue your work if it has been fruitful, but like so many on this forum (Forex Factory in general), you seem to mistake random for correlation.

Statistically...
if u want statistical correlation i can give u charts that date back to the old 1900s ... its a scanned copy of pesavento's works from an original book i bought... and this is not for plagiarism or for illegal copying - its just for educational purposes
Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: old charts.JPG Size: 94 KB



its fine - no one has to believe this or that. its about making profit in these markets. as long as i am im okay - and whatever ure doing even if it is using the weather forecast as ur "indicator" (lol) and u profit i wont mind at all .

in the end if u come out profitable or not is waht matters right? methods are just in between.

and for the record - its not random in one bit. its just a in a different plane of knowledge that only some accept or not accept. i mean seriously trading time? or cycles? yes i do. as nuts as it sounds its profitable. least to those who can use them well to their needs

take care wheels - ill keep u all updated on coming techs and maybe if there is an aspect to be wary of just for caution ill psot that as well. if x is fine with it. x just to let u know im not spamming or putting mumbo jumbo - i use thsi to profit. just to let u know but if u wish them to be removed ill do so without a banter.

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,186
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:28am Jan 10, 2012 9:28am
Quoting bumapatria
if u want statistical correlation i can give u charts that date back to the old 1900s ... its a scanned copy of pesavento's works from an original book i bought... and this is not for plagiarism or for illegal copying - its just for educational ( i think ) purposes
Attachment
Attachment


its fine - no one has to believe this or that. its about making profit in these markets. as long as i am im okay - and whatever ure doing even if it is using the weather forecast as ur "indicator" (lol) and u profit i wont...
Buma,

I find that fascinating, but I highly recommend you take a course in statistics (even the basics). I think this would be useful for your intellectual development. Learning about independent variables and their correlation to dependent variables would help you see that these charts have nothing to do with statistical correlations. (Try a STATA or SPSS output - that would be relevant).

Charts like this are very misleading.

Furthermore, if you find a trader (using real money) who is trading lunar cycles or other astrological indicators, please ask them if they are willing to post live trades and astrological reasons on a new forum thread (just so we don't clutter X's forum).

Proof is always in the pudding.
  • #15,187
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:37am Jan 10, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Wheels
Buma,

I find that fascinating, but I highly recommend you take a course in statistics (even the basics). I think this would be useful for your intellectual development. Learning about independent variables and their correlation to dependent variables would help you see that these charts have nothing to do with statistical correlations. (Try a STATA or SPSS output - that would be relevant).

Charts like this are very misleading.

Furthermore, if you find a trader (using real money) who is trading lunar cycles or other astrological indicators,...
ill try ask my buddy redlion on that hes a great quant. as for other traders ilovepippin - hes a pro at astro stuff trading it all..
he has a thread : planetary cycles trading (EURUSD) thats the name of it. check out his posts. as for just cycles - JR97 is kinda my inspiration too. i contribute to his thread as much as he does on his cyclical trades.. on "cycle trading " thread.





last post on the topic - wouldnt want to clutter - as wheels said.

sorry x, for the discusison just trying to have nice chat while gold is having some profit taking..
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #15,188
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:46am Jan 10, 2012 9:46am
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...erge-for-gold/
  • #15,189
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:11am Jan 10, 2012 10:11am


Quoting Wheels
I continue to watch and learn.

X and Bemac - hat goes off to you.

Buma - nice silver trade! I do wish you might explain the statistical relationship between the moon and silver. I wouldn't want you encouraging other 14 year olds to go long on silver due to lunar cycles. My bet is that no correlation exists.
Patience is magic
  • #15,190
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:25am Jan 10, 2012 11:25am
"Millionaires don't use Astrology, billionaires do!"

Who said it? J P Morgan that is all.
  • #15,191
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:44am Jan 10, 2012 11:44am
Quoting SunTrader
"Millionaires don't use Astrology, billionaires do!"

Who said it? J P Morgan that is all.
Can you verify this quote?
  • #15,192
  • Jan 10, 2012 2:25pm Jan 10, 2012 2:25pm
Hi Everyone, just entered a short position from 1,633.60 SL 1,641.00 TP 1,625.00. I will leave my 2nd position open to see if we get much of a bounce.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold11jan12.png Size: 62 KB
  • #15,193
  • Jan 10, 2012 5:59pm Jan 10, 2012 5:59pm
Off the CME website today:

Gold prices are expected to move sideways to lower this week, with support for prices positioned at $1,570. If prices are able to settle above $1,620 they could rise toward $1,635. Investor interest in gold has been tepid so far this year, with investors still wary of making fresh investments in gold following the sharp declines in prices during the last quarter of 2011. Combined gold ETP holdings stood at 77.3 million ounces on 6 January, down 317,010 ounces from the end of 2011. Net long Comex positions held by large non-commercial market participants continued to decline, reaching 13.58 million ounces on 3 January, their lowest levels since December 2008. As of 9 January, premiums on U.S. Mint gold coins were relatively weak (around 4%). This suggests softness in demand from investors in these coins, another sign of investor caution with regard to gold. Any monetary easing by the ECB this Thursday may strengthen the U.S. dollar, which could weigh on gold prices.http://www.cmegroup.com/education/ma...6234607850.jpg
  • #15,194
  • Jan 10, 2012 6:23pm Jan 10, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting fuse
Hi Everyone, just entered a short position from 1,633.60 SL 1,641.00 TP 1,625.00. I will leave my 2nd position open to see if we get much of a bounce.
Hi fuse

Nice!
What is the charting program you are using?
Also the MA?
Thanks
  • #15,195
  • Edited 7:55pm Jan 10, 2012 7:17pm | Edited 7:55pm
Sold gold on a lower high with a minor trend line break this Asian session.

ent 1631.76 stop 1635.51 some support at this point, lower high pattern signals a possible new short term trend down. looking for it to break.

scfx

closed due to support bounce holding up range. back to the waiting game.

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #15,196
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:55pm Jan 10, 2012 8:55pm
Quoting lilpip
the 1st daily close below last 2011 yearly breakout 1551 did not hold on its retest so we are up from there.
the single yearly pivot of 2012 is the 1597-1600 area so its bulls above we confirm it with a break of the secondary trend the quarterly trend guide 1632.
weekly pivot 1604
1648-55
1604
1535
The battle for 1st quarter direction.
Bias is up from the daily and weekly pivot area 1597-1604 with eyes on 1632 response. Candle formations and pa on the 5 min.will give a heads up.
tue. daily highs 1635 achieved and noted.
Daily Close @ 1632 noted.
eyes on weekly highs 1648-55 and response.
Two weeks ago A break below weekly lows 1544 did not hold on retest as we rotated back thru 1551 and on to the weekly pivot .
Last week was up from its pivot and the same for this week.
A break of weekly highs 1648-55 with confirming retest holding and Id say the bulls have it in tightly in hand.
Only 1 thing bothers me, it seems to easy.
What, no shinanigans ?
  • #15,197
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:01pm Jan 10, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting lilpip
silver weekly
30.16-26
28.58
26.37
extention from weekly pivot to weekly highs noted.
Ok girls rotation back or breakout ?
  • #15,198
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:04pm Jan 10, 2012 9:04pm
go above 1.655 its to easy? mmmmhhhhhhhhhhhh
Quoting lilpip
tue. daily highs 1635 achieved and noted.
Daily Close @ 1632 noted.
eyes on weekly highs 1648-55 and response.
Two weeks ago A break below weekly lows 1544 did not hold on retest as we rotated back thru 1551 and on to the weekly pivot .
Last week was up from its pivot and the same for this week.
A break of weekly highs 1648-55 with confirming retest holding and Id say the bulls have it in tightly in hand.
Only 1 thing bothers me, it seems to easy.
What no shinanigans ?
  • #15,199
  • Edited 9:40pm Jan 10, 2012 9:18pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting stevebalmmer
go above 1.655 its to easy? mmmmhhhhhhhhhhhh
Doesnt seem like much of a bulls bears fight, all pretty much telegraphed, the past 3 weeks has been textbook, what one would expect.
No deception, no sending silver one way and gold the other , no changeing rules, etc. as this new Quarterly and yearly trend gets established.
No gut checks.
The start of 2012, a retest of 2011 brakeout holds, 2012 single year trendguide holds, if quarterly and monthly guide holds, yes a weekly high and daily high breakout of the 1648-55 just seems to easy.
  • #15,200
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:06pm Jan 10, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting Bemac
Hi DB, The Attached is merely as an example.
The Green Line is a 12 Period SMA.
My question is.
IF, GBPCAD Jumped UP to the Green Horiz Line above it @ 1.6190, Where would that Close put the SMA?

Attachment
Thanks for thinking about it.
I think it would require a "Current Close Override" but I don't know.
The 1.6190 would be a User Input.

B
Hmmm....not something I have a solution for off the top of my head....but will give it some thought.
Life's a bitch....so be a dog and cover it!
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