Attachments: XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

#15,121
Jan 7, 2012 11:23am Jan 7, 2012 11:23am

Wheels
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 423 Posts

Quoting forexfacts

Disliked

They rule the world (at least thats what they think, the ruler is Almighty Alone).

They make any unlawful thing lawful.

They'll lie on our face and still stay in power, white lies.

Ignored

It is harder to keep this stuff in the shadows today than ever before.

I am enthusiastic that more transparency is an achievable hurdle in the coming years.

#15,122
Jan 7, 2012 11:35am Jan 7, 2012 11:35am

SunTrader
Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts

Joseph Kennedy or JP Morgan, I forget which, knew a crash was coming when the shoeshine boy was offering stock advice.

"We buy gold" signs all over town seems very similar.

#15,123
Jan 7, 2012 11:41am Jan 7, 2012 11:41am

Wheels
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 423 Posts

Quoting SunTrader

Disliked

Joseph Kennedy or JP Morgan, I forget which, knew a crash was coming when the shoeshine boy was offering stock advice.

"We buy gold" signs all over town seems very similar.

Ignored

I agree and this is a very good point, except, you are pointing out the opposite.

1. People who can afford to open store fronts in cities with expensive real estate prices are not shoe shine boys.

2. They are BUYING your gold, not selling. *some sell with a huge spread, many don't sell at all*

I thought gold could be cresting when I heard about the gold bar concession machines selling gold years ago, but this was long before the latest spike.

People offering to buy your gold and silver does not equate to a shoe shine boy offering advice. Two very different examples. Opposites, even.

***Said with honest respect. I do appreciate a difference of opinion always.

#15,124
Jan 7, 2012 2:43pm Jan 7, 2012 2:43pm

XTrade
Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts

CORRECT.

They are buying gold on the latest GOLD RUSH.

It's just not panning for gold they are ripping people off hand over fist. Even if the market tanks 100 bucks they still are ripping people off by paying -especially with jewelry, much less than even 2 % below spot/.

I'd say at worst they offer 50% below.

And NO NO NO. They do not sell gold. Everything they buy gets melted and sent to the refinery or smelter they deal with likely on a daily basis.

To sell. well then they might lose. Not a bad racket.

Quoting Wheels

Disliked

I agree and this is a very good point, except, you are pointing out the opposite.

1. People who can afford to open store fronts in cities with expensive real estate prices are not shoe shine boys.

2. They are BUYING your gold, not selling. *some sell with a huge spread, many don't sell at all*

I thought gold could be cresting when I heard about the gold bar concession machines selling gold years ago, but this was long before the latest spike.

People offering to buy your gold and silver does not equate to a shoe shine boy offering...

Ignored

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News

#15,125
Jan 7, 2012 3:06pm Jan 7, 2012 3:06pm

XTrade
Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts

Wellllll....

We Got the close above 1608 and 10., and the channel LTL (Weekly)

Now the tale will need to be told next week if we can sustain it...

Silver,

Looks like I missed some good physical buys...

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News

#15,126
Jan 7, 2012 3:18pm Jan 7, 2012 3:18pm

bumapatria
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts

a view on the 4 hourly with more traditional approach to TA

price did reach 1630 target as we all predicted

either this is a trap for sellers as a mark down to removeresistance, or gold really willcontinue its downtrend

heres the bear perspective all explained on the chart

risk reward is better for a short IF a trade is to be opened at current levels

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: thought of u alone.gif
Size: 40 KB

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?

#15,127
Jan 8, 2012 12:09am Jan 8, 2012 12:09am

rozario173
| Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

Gold is forecasted to rise short term and then drop, at least that's what this program is saying, Delta Graphics Director. This is a Gold index, not XAUUSD.

#15,128
Jan 8, 2012 12:11am Jan 8, 2012 12:11am

rozario173
| Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

#15,129
Jan 8, 2012 12:12am Jan 8, 2012 12:12am

rozario173
| Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

Oh sorry, I'm trying to insert a graphic.

#15,130
Jan 8, 2012 12:20am Jan 8, 2012 12:20am

rozario173
| Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 69 Posts

Here is gold chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: gold chart.JPG
Size: 65 KB

#15,131
Jan 8, 2012 6:53am Jan 8, 2012 6:53am

clc4x
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: L. C. Chong | 882 Posts

Gold managed to bounced on the uptrend line and 1531 support, then returned above 1600. The current dynamic resistance is 200SMA, and the stable dynamic resistance is 1640. In long term, Gold is in the uptrend channel.

I expect that Gold will go through more volatile movement in this week.

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380

#15,132
Jan 8, 2012 7:26am Jan 8, 2012 7:26am

lilpip
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,219 Posts

Quoting bumapatria

Disliked

i am interested in ur first chart. in market geometry one could use a parabola for trading and its actually more of market symettrry...
here is an example -
Attachment
i only use it in low timeframes like the hourly charts though, never looked at such big long term charts and cannot confirm the validiity as i never tried so but it would look to deadly and drive silver back to a 1 digit value IF it is valid.
i am not too sure that could happen but who knows..
if we take that chart and draw a parabola... thats too huge of a crash....

Ignored

Go with your gut, explore what you pick up on.
One should consider the last 3 bars of any timeframe including a yearly.
Verify and confirm the higher trends or timeframes by the next lower timeframe, 3 year with yearly, yearly with 3 quarters, 3quarters with 1 quarter and 3 months, eventually to weekly and daily.
the silver drop you speak of did not have the whole world involved, there is much more buying from china india and from other countries around the world.

#15,133
Edited 8:43am Jan 8, 2012 7:36am | Edited 8:43am

lilpip
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,219 Posts

Quoting bumapatria

Disliked

a view on the 4 hourly with more traditional approach to TA
price did reach 1630 target as we all predicted
either this is a trap for sellers as a mark down to removeresistance, or gold really willcontinue its downtrend
heres the bear perspective all explained on the chart
risk reward is better for a short IF a trade is to be opened at current levels

Ignored

10-4 on the 4hr.confirmation.
just as we confirm the 4hr with the 1hrly and 1hr with 30 min, and 15 to 5.
same above as below, confirm 5 with the 15 and so on.
bounce down from quarterly pivot 1632 is noted lets see how weekly pivot (which lines up with the single year pivot) responds.
1 year
1903
1597
1291
quartrly
1896
1632
1378
weekly
1648-55
1597-1604
1535

#15,134
Jan 8, 2012 8:54am Jan 8, 2012 8:54am

forexfacts
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 558 Posts

Quote

Disliked

quartrly
1896
1632
1378

In this 50 - 50 market both 1400s and 1800s can be seen in quarterly.

My heart says start trading regularly in such a market, but i am not going to

#15,135
Edited 1:39pm Jan 8, 2012 1:19pm | Edited 1:39pm

lilpip
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,219 Posts

Quoting forexfacts

Disliked

In this 50 - 50 market both 1400s and 1800s can be seen in quarterly.

My heart says start trading regularly in such a market, but i am not going to

Ignored

this means follow the new quarterly trend from 1632.
the 1st daily close below last 2011 yearly breakout 1551 did not hold on its retest so we are up from there.
the single yearly pivot of 2012 is the 1597-1600 area so its bulls above we confirm it with a break of the secondary trend the quarterly trend guide 1632.
we filter direction and confirm by monthly,weekly daily. (Will 1600 area hold ? ) Lets watch the daily and weekly for direction.
Last week we had a very controlled move up as we achieved our daily highs yet not beyond, on our way way to 1632.

jan. monthly trend guide 1629
bias is down from 1629-32 area
1769
1629
1489

weekly pivot 1604
1648-55
1604
1535
daily
1640
1597
1554
The battle for 1st quarter direction.
Bias is up from the daily and weekly pivot area 1597-1604 with eyes on 1632 response. Candle formations and pa on the 5 min.will give a heads up.

#15,136
Jan 8, 2012 8:01pm Jan 8, 2012 8:01pm

Wheels
| Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Trader | 423 Posts

Quoting XTrade

Disliked

CORRECT.

They are buying gold on the latest GOLD RUSH.

It's just not panning for gold they are ripping people off hand over fist. Even if the market tanks 100 bucks they still are ripping people off by paying -especially with jewelry, much less than even 2 % below spot/.

I'd say at worst they offer 50% below.

And NO NO NO. They do not sell gold. Everything they buy gets melted and sent to the refinery or smelter they deal with likely on a daily basis.

To sell. well then they might lose. Not a bad racket.

Ignored

Hey X - do you account for cycle lows in your yearly outlook in a significant way?

I know you are long from a nice low level now (I am repeatedly impressed by your calls), but am curious if you've read much about cycle lows and four year cycle lows.

My initial plan was to wait out this quarter for a bit as so much remains in the air. I expected a nice chance to enter low sometime in this quarter prior to the Spring rush. Perhaps not the best call, but I'm still happy where I am and watching the daily to see if the pattern continues lower. Certainly not time for me to jump back in long just yet.

BTW - where are all you intelligent contributors?

I look forward to your return Bemac. I never trade on your wisdom unless it lines up with my own (perhaps to my own detriment), but I always appreciate your perspective. Feel free to share your thoughts on an upcoming cycle low, as well. In my opinion, a nice time to get long may be approaching.

As Suntrader says, what goes down must come up. Or do I have that mixed up?

Cheers

#15,137
Jan 8, 2012 10:49pm Jan 8, 2012 10:49pm

Sreym33
| Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 247 Posts

Hello all, does anyone have a good volume indicator that they wouldn't mind sharing? Thanks.

#15,138
Jan 8, 2012 11:19pm Jan 8, 2012 11:19pm

bumapatria
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 10,724 Posts

Quoting Sreym33

Disliked

Hello all, does anyone have a good volume indicator that they wouldn't mind sharing? Thanks.

Ignored

give a search on better volume 1.5 (newest version)
i personally like 1.3 more though..

if u are into bill wiliams and voluem too here it is and better volum eindis uploaded

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