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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #14,741
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:06am Dec 21, 2011 9:06am
Quoting Goldmansacks
I have a "feeling" we will see some decisive movement over next few days, ie 8th, 9th, 10th or 12th 13th this Month..(December) A direction at least. I am bullish, but could imagine a fakie down first followed up move towards/past $1800. (chart 1)

Quoting Goldmansacks

I see gold either ranging, or down until either December 28th (Chart 2) and if nothing happens then on or around 28th, then I see down or ranging until Jan 8th-16th (give or take 1or two days post 16th) where I see another POSSIBLE turn upwards, so basically if nothing happens early...
Another possible Fibo turn date (no direction) for 28th December ISH
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  • #14,742
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:20am Dec 21, 2011 9:20am
My understanding is that Xtrade was looking at a weekly chart, but I might be wrong.
What is actual is that gold is now trading slightly below the 200 days but way above 200 weeks ma.


Quoting TheArcher
care to post the charts .. ? care to elaborate what cues ... tks
Patience is magic
  • #14,743
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:49am Dec 21, 2011 9:49am
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...ff_Coming.html
  • #14,744
  • Dec 21, 2011 10:33am Dec 21, 2011 10:33am
Dreadful pin bar today indeed


Quoting rozario173
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...ff_Coming.html
Patience is magic
  • #14,745
  • Dec 21, 2011 10:55am Dec 21, 2011 10:55am
Quoting rozario173
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educati...ff_Coming.html
its not about gold =)
When gold is corelated with eurusd now its not the "gold"
Look at euro fundys and trade it on gold.
I will not trade gold until correlation ends.
  • #14,746
  • Dec 21, 2011 11:28am Dec 21, 2011 11:28am
I just can't understand why so many think the 200 SMA is important?

When price was in the low 1900's what did that show.

When it dropped into the 1800's, 1700's, 1600's nothing. Only when it broke below the mid 1500's did it become a self-fulfilling prophecy to put a bottom in. Now that bottom might be a top. Who knows.

To each his own. I rather not stick around and wait and hope.

Equities rally is fizzling once again.
  • #14,747
  • Dec 21, 2011 11:32am Dec 21, 2011 11:32am
I've previously said that I'm targetin 164x to go short. But I was out today, happy to made the right forecast..

What are you expecting so? supper @ 1610 area and go higher or sell off ?
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  • #14,748
  • Dec 21, 2011 12:12pm Dec 21, 2011 12:12pm
PA just on the edge of the neutral zone in my envelop study.

Today went through then back down at the 200DMA. Normal PA on reaching first MA.

PA now bouncing between 23.6 and 38.2% feb.

I am looking for an inside day tomorrow to reasses entry.
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I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #14,749
  • Dec 21, 2011 2:19pm Dec 21, 2011 2:19pm
I went long at 1615 with a tp at 1740
  • #14,750
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:14pm Dec 21, 2011 5:14pm
I had an initial buy at 1616, with a stop at 1600 - tight i know, after +10 pips, i went to break even +1 just to see where it was going, I was pretty happy to see it at 164X last night, and had a good sleep. then awoke to it stopping out again. bah humbug. haha.

oh well, at least I didn't loose any $$.

As soon as gold moves into +10 on gold/silver, i move to break even. Way to volatile to keep wide stops IMHO.

The plan was to hold onto this till 1998
  • #14,751
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:23pm Dec 21, 2011 5:23pm
Sure. I have been posting this chart repeatedly for the past several months just so you are aware.

First I will guide you to these posts.

Wrapping around the LTL weekly

Dec 16 weekly channel update.

. see below for a new weekly channel without my notes
first.

Next chart will have my commentary.

Thick yellow line = stiff resistance we need to break.

Quoting TheArcher
care to post the charts .. ? care to elaborate what cues ... tks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly re gold dec.GIF Size: 53 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,752
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:27pm Dec 21, 2011 5:27pm
Why go short, what is your reasoning,

I see more money in riding the longs. Especially now that we have maintained weekly channel LTL for 2/3 days. I would personally and am shooting for the top.

With my long placed at 1585.

What happened today? We shot up and then hit some stiff resistance and sell orders were triggered. Not enough follow through for me to be bearish short term even.

Quoting hbkarakas
I've previously said that I'm targetin 164x to go short. But I was out today, happy to made the right forecast..

What are you expecting so? supper @ 1610 area and go higher or sell off ?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #14,753
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:28pm Dec 21, 2011 5:28pm
Bad luck mate. That's why I always set a TP, especially if overnight. I hit 1639.49 and got taken out but my pending on silver got hit, reversed and stopped out and I ended up netting zero. Oh well.

Quoting benjamf13
I had an initial buy at 1616, with a stop at 1600 - tight i know, after +10 pips, i went to break even +1 just to see where it was going, I was pretty happy to see it at 164X last night, and had a good sleep.
  • #14,754
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:44pm Dec 21, 2011 5:44pm
Pivot at 1608.00

Long above 1608 with 1641.5 & 1650 in sight. So far respecting short term TL.

The downside penetration and close below 1608 could call for a slide towards 1588 & 1582.

Pinbar on D1 is making me a bit nervous for longs so I'll observe PA throughout the day before diving in.
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  • #14,755
  • Dec 21, 2011 5:53pm Dec 21, 2011 5:53pm
have been a great couple of days in the Gold market...

I have opened a small long in @ 1613. seeing support at this point, looking for 1625 off this higher low. This pattern still has some counter rally about it so I have a tight stop @ 1611.

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #14,756
  • Dec 21, 2011 6:05pm Dec 21, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting scfx
have been a great couple of days in the Gold market...

I have opened a small long in @ 1613. seeing support at this point, looking for 1625 off this higher low. This pattern still has some counter rally about it so I have a tight stop @ 1611.

scfx
Trade reversed, as price closed below my entry bar confirming resistance (loss of $1.90). Counter broke the higher low patten and confirmed a trend line break to say short. shorted @ 1612.42

scfx
The best indicator is price.
  • #14,757
  • Dec 21, 2011 6:31pm Dec 21, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting scfx
Trade reversed, as price closed below my entry bar confirming resistance (loss of $1.90). Counter broke the higher low patten and confirmed a trend line break to say short. shorted @ 1612.42

scfx
Why are you back and forth with such tight stops? price is already back up to 1613.8 and you would have made money instead of losing both ways. been there, done that!! proper MM and large enough stops will go a long way. The only time I use tight stops if there is a breakout and it comes back to test. tight stops are a gamble in this market. just my 2 cents.
  • #14,758
  • Dec 21, 2011 7:47pm Dec 21, 2011 7:47pm
Price squeeze again. Looking for mini break north. Short term TL still being respected (just!!). Weekly channel well intact as XTrade has pointed out. It's a punt, pinbar on D1 is still looming but hey it's all about fundies now ain't it?

Long at 1613.22
SL: 1605.83
TP: 1641.5

Gonna give silver a rest, too volatile. Bitch slapped me too many times now. I'd rather just stack it than trade it for now!
  • #14,759
  • Dec 21, 2011 7:50pm Dec 21, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting Sreym33
Why are you back and forth with such tight stops? price is already back up to 1613.8 and you would have made money instead of losing both ways. been there, done that!! proper MM and large enough stops will go a long way. The only time I use tight stops if there is a breakout and it comes back to test. tight stops are a gamble in this market. just my 2 cents.
Exactly it is because of the volatility that loose not tight stops should be used.
  • #14,760
  • Dec 21, 2011 9:14pm Dec 21, 2011 9:14pm
Time I use tight stops is when I am scalping for like a 3 to 10 USD move and I think there is the possibility of a breakout in the opposite direction.

Gold averages about 30 bucks Hi to Lo a day these days,
using tight stops even while day trading is a sure fire way to lose.

And "so called hedging" is a way to lose even more.

I have had in depth discussions with Mt4 brokers about what happens when you
"hedge" or take an opposing position in the same pair.

The response was so circled and twisted my head was spinning by the amount of bvllshit I was getting handed.

A real hedge should be something like LONG AUD short NZD or Long Swissy short Euro or Long Gold Short Silver.......
Not a play against yourself. ESPECIALLY RULE ONE NEVER HEDGE A LOSING POSITION. Better off cutting your losses sucking up the bad entry and re entering the market at the RIGHT TIME.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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