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  • #10,041
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:42pm Sep 13, 2011 3:42pm
I don't see metals dropping during the Asian Session. There are bad expected news for US tomorrow morning EST. Therefore, I think we can see it moving up or ranging.
  • #10,042
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:45pm Sep 13, 2011 3:45pm
The support at 1800 is quite strong.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #10,043
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:11pm Sep 13, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
The support at 1800 is quite strong.
Yes - but we also know that the price is set at the whim of the big players (particularly bank traders). It really depends on where they want the price to go.

I find it particularly interesting looking at the bizarre downside movements. The upward move is much more natural as the price action is less of a sudden drastic jump to new highs. Drops look like all sellers are magically coordinating their efforts to sell at exactly the same time - repeatedly. Almost like the move we saw in the Swiss Franc last week... It seems illogical to assume these drops are typical price action.

I'm attending a conference with the GATA folks presenting soon. I will report back if I hear anything tangible about the lawsuit against JP Morgan and HSBC. The biggest question is whether their naked shorts/manipulation promote a fair, liquid, stable, and transparent market. If not, then what they are doing is illegal according to US law (as I, a layman, understand it). They could argue that they are preventing gold/silver prices from exploding, but I think this is silly. If they explode, fewer buyers will emerge. The price should naturally drop to an efficient level if people are not willing to buy - banks should not have direct sway IMHO.
  • #10,044
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:24pm Sep 13, 2011 4:24pm
Where have you been for the last 6 years? Gold has been exploding.
BTW nice PinBar forming but that is getting ahead of ourselves with 2 more weeks left in the month:
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  • #10,045
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:45pm Sep 13, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting SunTrader
Where have you been for the last 6 years? Gold has been exploding.
BTW nice PinBar forming but that is getting ahead of ourselves with 2 more weeks left in the month:
It hasn't reached its all-time high adjusted for inflation and I have read no reports that people in India and China have slowed their holiday buying (or any buying at all for that matter).

Inflation has continued and global demand is keeping pace with the higher prices.

The only people who are deciding prices should go down are people playing the market- not people who own physical gold. A lot of people believe that its price should be determined by supply and demand - not the whim of JP Morgan or HSBC.

These massive corrections are at such break-neck speeds that we can all but assume that they have nothing to do with market efficiency.

What is actually happening with the USD and gold is not such a simple case. Although I admit it will be possible to manipulate price downward, we are in new territory and I refuse to buy assumptions that gold will naturally correct (without manipulation) against the USD without some kind of fundamental change.

China, Russia, and Brazil all have an interest in establishing alternatives to using the USD as a reserve currency. While the US can easily justify invading Libya with the threat of a gold-backed dinar and gold for oil trading scheme, it would be much more difficult to justify war against these three countries.

I just think there is more to this story than a bull market in gold due for a correction. China has been hedging itself against issues with the USD for years. Perhaps you have inside information about this policy having changed in China.

I personally don't think China has bought so much gold to sell it at a higher price. It is a strategy IMHO. The price of gold has been knocked around significantly and capped off for years. You should really check out the merits of this GATA lawsuit, even if you think I'm full of it.

If anything, look at the HUGE volume and sudden drops in the price of both gold and silver. It isn't always related to margin hikes (which in and of themselves are a form of price manipulation).

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth...046520396.html
  • #10,046
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:49pm Sep 13, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting SunTrader
Where have you been for the last 6 years? Gold has been exploding.
BTW nice PinBar forming but that is getting ahead of ourselves with 2 more weeks left in the month:
As I said, demand has not been slowing in India and China.

Any MASSIVE correction would supplant any logical relationship with supply and demand of physical gold affecting the price, even accounting for hedging.

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topic...8&parent_id=28
  • #10,047
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:05pm Sep 13, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting Wheels

The only people who are deciding prices should go down are people playing the market- not people who own physical gold. A lot of people believe that its price should be determined by supply and demand - not the whim of JP Morgan or HSBC.

These massive corrections are at such break-neck speeds that we can all but assume that they have nothing to do with market efficiency.

You might like to have a listen to both of these interviews:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...w_Maguire.html

beeb
  • #10,048
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:08pm Sep 13, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting Wheels
As I said, demand has not............
Is there some kind of market rule that I haven't heard that says something should make a new inflation-adjusted alltime high just because?

Relax it will probably do it soon. But forget about the JPMorgan conspiracies.

It's OK for gold to move 3, 4 5 percent or more in a day but not for it to, very occassionally, do the same to the downside, huh?

Does the big money move the market. Naturally. But some of that big money are central banks (China for one) doing the buying. Certainly not selling nowadays.
  • #10,049
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:18pm Sep 13, 2011 5:18pm
Quoting SunTrader
Is there some kind of market rule that I haven't heard that says something should make a new inflation-adjusted alltime high just because?

Relax it will probably do it soon. But forget about the JPMorgan conspiracies.

It's OK for gold to move 3, 4 5 percent or more in a day but not for it to, very occassionally, do the same to the downside, huh?

Does the big money move the market. Naturally. But some of that big money are central banks (China for one) doing the buying. Certainly not selling nowadays.
There are a number of strong arguments as to why gold should reach a new high, adjusted for inflation, but you have heard them all.

The downward moves have been extreme and fast - by far exceeding the gradual rise in gold.

I'm not necessarily a believer in the "conspiracies", but there are debatable incentives for the GATA folks to sue JPM and HSBC unless they have a solid basis. Why would they sue major banks unless it was at least a little bit worth their while? It's a pretty expensive move.
  • #10,050
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:21pm Sep 13, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting beeb
You might like to have a listen to both of these interviews:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...w_Maguire.html

beeb
Thanks, Beeb. I like the stuff KWN puts out although some can seem a bit out there for the mainstream audience.

FTR, I am open to bear arguments, Suntrader. I just haven't heard a strong enough argument why gold should correct to 1500 or lower without artificial influence that has nothing to do with a fair market price.
  • #10,051
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:40pm Sep 13, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting Wheels
......

FTR, I am open to bear arguments, Suntrader. I just haven't heard a ........
Permabulls are just as as permabears.
  • #10,052
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:48pm Sep 13, 2011 5:48pm
Quoting SunTrader
Permabulls are just as as permabears.
Perhaps so, but I am clearly stating that I am not a permabull. I am just pointing out that price drops may have had more to do with manipulation than market efficiency in some cases.

This is something worth investigating for me. Feel free to disagree or call it a conspiracy. I plan to look into the lawsuit and learn about whether their case has merit.
  • #10,053
  • Sep 13, 2011 6:05pm Sep 13, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting Wheels
Perhaps so, but ..........
What about manipulation on the upside.

You sound like someone who is in the hole on a long position. Though it's none of my business.

But you choose to ignore the fact market are allowed to go both directions.

If you have spent any time posting or just reading the eurusd thread you would see that you can tell which way the euro is trading just by the posts talking about the big bank/traders "manipulating" things aka moving it against their position. But when it is going the right direction, their direction, well that is just how it should be.

Better to trade price than biases.

Lawyers were born to file cases. Investigate all you want. The market will still be here when you get done.
  • #10,054
  • Edited 6:55pm Sep 13, 2011 6:18pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting SunTrader
What about manipulation on the upside.

You sound like someone who is in the hole on a long position. Though it's none of my business.

But you choose to ignore the fact market are allowed to go both directions.

If you have spent any time posting or just reading the eurusd thread you would see that you can tell which way the euro is trading just by the posts talking about the big bank/traders "manipulating" things aka moving it against their position. But when it is going the right direction, their direction, well that is just...
Not in the hole as far as my account is concerned (although some of my buys are negative). I am holding onto long positions with sell stops below. I am fortunate enough to be in a position to manage price action full time - in both directions.

**Allow me to clarify - my equity is up, not just my balance.

I'm willing to leave the table breaking even, but will manage my positions in the meantime hoping to come out with a more substantial profit than where I am now. I hope for success, but understand the risk-taking nature of derivative spot speculation.

Ultimately, you are entitled to your opinion, but you seem to make a lot of assumptions. For example, an assumption that all discussion of manipulation has to do with people taking price movement personally seems a touch unfair.

I have made no personal comments until this last one - a reaction to your baseless accusation. Perhaps we are done now - because I would like to remain in good standing here. Peddling the middle ground while attacking anyone with a perspective seems disingenuous to me.

Cheers
  • #10,055
  • Sep 13, 2011 6:31pm Sep 13, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting Wheels
As I said, demand has not been slowing in India and China.

...
I will only speak to the India side of this equation.
India will very soon, if they have not already, meet their Annual Wedding Season Demand for Gold!
August/September.

Yes. Believe it or not, It's a Gold Play. Buy Gold Early Summer & hold till Mid September.
The Effect IS weakening due to people like me publishing it over the Net but it still carries some credence.

Hence: I am aside as I suspect are a Lot of Others, Including Big Dogs for a Month or so. Next we will have the Post India Buy which will take us to Thanksgiving & shortly thereafter to Xmass. Both of these TF's are considered Med Term Trades & often do not get full investiture. Therefore they can be choppy.

Keep it in your quivver for Next Year.
Better yet, Keep your Powder Dry.



B
  • #10,056
  • Sep 13, 2011 6:45pm Sep 13, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting Wheels
.......... while attacking {where} anyone with a perspective seems disingenuous to me.
Yeah we're done - I guess.
  • #10,057
  • Sep 13, 2011 7:12pm Sep 13, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting Wheels
Allow me to be the first to admit that London has not been good for gold. I had expected some kind of limited rally consistent with the previous session. Some resistance at 1800 again.
I'll try to proof it wrong tonight due to the bad expected news for tomorrow morning (08:30 EST).
  • #10,058
  • Sep 13, 2011 7:19pm Sep 13, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting Wheels
Yes - but we also know that the price is set at the whim of the big players (particularly bank traders). It really depends on where they want the price to go.

I find it particularly interesting looking at the bizarre downside movements. The upward move is much more natural as the price action is less of a sudden drastic jump to new highs. Drops look like all sellers are magically coordinating their efforts to sell at exactly the same time - repeatedly. Almost like the move we saw in the Swiss Franc last week... It seems illogical to assume these...
I use to wake up to look at the markets drop It's a cycle. When institutional traders decide to get out of their positions we are able to see a 90 USD drop in just a matter of minutes.

Why did I say "wake up"? Well, this event mostly occurs between 05 EST to 11:30 EST (which is the london close). So.. I like looking at the market so I can hedge my positions and get a couple of more hundred pips.
  • #10,059
  • Sep 13, 2011 8:03pm Sep 13, 2011 8:03pm
bearish bat...
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  • #10,060
  • Sep 13, 2011 8:06pm Sep 13, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting Pbh
I use to wake up to look at the markets drop It's a cycle. When institutional traders decide to get out of their positions we are able to see a 90 USD drop in just a matter of minutes.

Why did I say "wake up"? Well, this event mostly occurs between 05 EST to 11:30 EST (which is the london close). So.. I like looking at the market so I can hedge my positions and get a couple of more hundred pips.
And when TOKYO opens, gold goes up.
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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