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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #9,681
  • Sep 4, 2011 11:14pm Sep 4, 2011 11:14pm
Hello all,

A new member here from Indonesia, been a watcher for the gold market for years. but recently have been looking into learning technicals and all. at least a couple thousand posts i have been following here. One that impressed me most has gotta be beeb's Fork techniques. The recent argument made one of the most contributive user here to stop posting and i felt the last few days kind of lost looking for levels of support and resistance beeb normally illustrates.

Quoting Mitchoss
wheres my mate, sir beeb

looking foward to a fork to compare to my own. send me a PM when you get a chance bud.

Mitch

does anyone knows if he posts whereelse other than this FF's Forum?
  • #9,682
  • Sep 4, 2011 11:41pm Sep 4, 2011 11:41pm
From what I can see on gold H1 chart, I would say that there are 3 options at the moment:

1. A move to ~1900-1910 with pullback to 30SMA H1, then continuation of uptrend (most likely, I don't believe it could hit 1910 and reverse as there would be many buyers for new highs).

2. A move down to 30SMA on H1, and then a move up to possibly a new record.

3. Consolidation until it meets 30SMA, then a bullish breakout (again, I think bullish breakout is more possible).


Check how price interacts with 30SMA (green line) on H1 chart. Bouncing off of it. It usually scores around 50$ higher than the 30SMA before it pulls back to it, that's why 1910 might be possible before pulling back a bit.
Because of low expected volume, I guess the 3. case has most chances.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #9,683
  • Edited 11:54pm Sep 4, 2011 11:43pm | Edited 11:54pm
The obvious s/r levels re marked here for you to ponder. Personally I wouldn't be going long here......not until the previous top is taken out. The risk/reward isn't great, and that is further underscored by this less than convincing bull run since the NFP dust is starting to settle.....see the green circle.

By the way.....rather than some people here crying about beebs pitchfork analysis not showing up.....there is tons and tons of information, tutorials, forums etc etc online so you do not need to rely on other peoples analysis, which may or may not be correct, but you can learn to fork yourself.

FWIW though.....forks need to be drawn before the fact, not after the fact, and a well drawn fork can usually yield a lot of pips for quite some time. There is a forum here about pitchforks, and there once was an exponent of Andrews Pitchfork analysis used to post on the eurusd thread, but he has gone quiet for quite a long time now.....pity because his forks were spectacular in their accuracy.

Anyway, don't rely on other peoples analysis.......do you your own!

Edit: In case some of you don't know, what I have circled is the classic Evening Star formation. It won't be confirmed until the close of the current candle, but it's looking good. Click Here for the Evening Star definition if you want to
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 63 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #9,684
  • Sep 5, 2011 12:07am Sep 5, 2011 12:07am
Quoting Blud4oilPrgm
Ok so here's my analysis:


Attachment
Attachment

If silver can drop below 42.83, then I think you have a low risk short opportunity here with a stop just above the channel high at 43.40.
My question is where would you look to flip as the friendly trend is up?
  • #9,685
  • Sep 5, 2011 12:12am Sep 5, 2011 12:12am
thanks


Quoting XTrade
Silver

Reg:
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1 - 49 $45.16 $46.51
http://www.apmex.com/Resources/Catal...s/156_slab.jpg
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The premium...
  • #9,686
  • Sep 5, 2011 12:19am Sep 5, 2011 12:19am
Quoting lilpip
My question is where would you look to flip as the friendly trend is up?
As of now, silver would need to bounce off the lower yellow boson line near 38.70 for me to think about buying. Too much overhead resistance here. Also
Aussie markets were selling off tonight and seems the CRB index is cooling a bit here in initial trade.
  • #9,687
  • Sep 5, 2011 3:02am Sep 5, 2011 3:02am
Quoting realjumper
The obvious s/r levels re marked here for you to ponder. Personally I wouldn't be going long here......not until the previous top is taken out. The risk/reward isn't great, and that is further underscored by this less than convincing bull run since the NFP dust is starting to settle.....see the green circle.

By the way.....rather than some people here crying about beebs pitchfork analysis not showing up.....there is tons and tons of information, tutorials, forums etc etc online so you do not need to rely on other peoples analysis, which may or...
thank you, i suppose it is cancelled now? its gonna change 8hour and it looks like the evening star did not complete?
  • #9,688
  • Sep 5, 2011 3:14am Sep 5, 2011 3:14am
Quoting realjumper
Edit: In case some of you don't know, what I have circled is the classic Evening Star formation. It won't be confirmed until the close of the current candle, but it's looking good. Click Here for the Evening Star definition if you want to
Evening Start formation invalidated.....now we'll have to see whether it breaks the recent high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 68 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #9,689
  • Sep 5, 2011 4:18am Sep 5, 2011 4:18am
There goes 1900...
Anything can happen.
  • #9,690
  • Sep 5, 2011 4:45am Sep 5, 2011 4:45am
Daily R1 capped the bulls for now.....just shy of the previous high....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 85 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #9,691
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:51am Sep 5, 2011 10:51am
Yes we are on the VERGE of a new High!

Quoting ddinnov
There goes 1900...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #9,692
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:09am Sep 5, 2011 11:09am
looking for a bounce off 1881 then sky is the limit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ike-looms.html

http://atnabtu.com/cgi/allnews.pl?op...20-%20Investme
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #9,693
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:25am Sep 5, 2011 11:25am
Quoting dryclean
looking for a bounce off 1881 then sky is the limit
A trip to 81 now would mean a double top on H1. The day is pretty slow because of the holiday, I don't expect any big moves but slow crawl.
  • #9,694
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:32am Sep 5, 2011 11:32am
I agree but NY open maybe even LO will get things rolling
Posible stall at 1911 then break up to maybe 1940
  • #9,695
  • Edited 12:24pm Sep 5, 2011 12:07pm | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting Blud4oilPrgm
As of now, silver would need to bounce off the lower yellow boson line near 38.70 for me to think about buying. Too much overhead resistance here. Also
Aussie markets were selling off tonight and seems the CRB index is cooling a bit here in initial trade.
If your going to short watch the daily highs respond.
Heres a retest of that now of the 1901 area .
silver should follow her and shes sitting at your 42.83 area at that, they will lead the way all we have to do is follow.
they both went south when gold droped from 1901 and turned around at silvers anticipated 42.05-25 area posted earlier as mon pivot and fri. breakout retest area.
  • #9,696
  • Sep 5, 2011 12:10pm Sep 5, 2011 12:10pm
We are again at 1900, YES!
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #9,697
  • Sep 5, 2011 2:12pm Sep 5, 2011 2:12pm
It'll get taken out. Remember NY wasn't even open today.

Quoting dryclean
looking for a bounce off 1881 then sky is the limit
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #9,698
  • Sep 5, 2011 2:48pm Sep 5, 2011 2:48pm
hey guys,

bit curious... why isn't the charts updating for PM's? Did I miss something hehe
  • #9,699
  • Sep 5, 2011 3:03pm Sep 5, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting Mitchoss
hey guys,

bit curious... why isn't the charts updating for PM's? Did I miss something hehe
Not enough locations open. This would be the time when US was open alone, now it's closed anyway so charts look funny.
  • #9,700
  • Sep 5, 2011 3:07pm Sep 5, 2011 3:07pm
Thanks mate, I thought as much but I wasn't sure where the price feed came from as im Australian.

Mitch

Quoting Firsh
Not enough locations open. This would be the time when US was open alone, now it's closed anyway so charts look funny.
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