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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #8,361
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:28am Jul 25, 2011 6:28am
I can see a 15 USD range until a break. 1623 / 1607
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,362
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:29am Jul 25, 2011 6:29am
tHANK YOU KIND SIR.

I am all sorts of off.....

Hmm - enlightening though none the less. on the larger fork price is resting atop the "top" which could suggest further movement north.


Quoting beeb
240min kiwi
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #8,363
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:33am Jul 25, 2011 6:33am
Quoting XTrade
I can see a 15 USD range until a break. 1623 / 1607
Xtrade hope you do not mind me asking this. Back in Aug 2007 gold had dipped to 640 (we never saw that since then). The reason was because portfolio managers were selling off gold to cover their losses on stocks.

I know the scenario is way different since then but I have been reading the news and a lot of the buyers have been portfolio managers from U.S and Europe.

Is it likely given the current crisis to see such a sell off? Not that I want to see one.
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,364
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:36am Jul 25, 2011 6:36am
Quoting XTrade
tHANK YOU KIND SIR.

I am all sorts of off.....

Hmm - enlightening though none the less. on the larger fork price is resting atop the "top" which could suggest further movement north.

As I have tried to emphasise - there is no right and wrong, it's a question of finding something in tune with price and then watching for the support and resistance.
The amount of time at the Upper Parallel shows an area of resistance there and would be a place to lighten longs. If it breaks convincingly up that line could very well become a line of support....

beeb
  • #8,365
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:43am Jul 25, 2011 6:43am
Quoting Tilf
Xtrade hope you do not mind me asking this. Back in Aug 2007 gold had dipped to 640 (we never saw that since then). The reason was because portfolio managers were selling off gold to cover their losses on stocks.

I know the scenario is way different since then but I have been reading the news and a lot of the buyers have been portfolio managers from U.S and Europe.

Is it likely given the current crisis to see such a sell off? Not that I want to see one.
imho you might see some fund liquidation but big money (esp from the far east) and central banks are underpinning the PHYSICAL market. I don't think such a dip is feasible....

beeb
  • #8,366
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:46am Jul 25, 2011 6:46am
Quoting beeb
imho you might see some fund liquidation but big money (esp from the far east) and central banks are underpinning the PHYSICAL market. I don't think such a dip is feasible....

beeb
Thanks beeb. Agree with you on this. Maybe short term money flowing in and out can cause some noise in this long term up trend.
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,367
  • Jul 25, 2011 6:53am Jul 25, 2011 6:53am
CME raises margin requirements on Treasuries, effective COB today

http://www.forexlive.com/

does it effect gold ?
MMMYYYKKK
  • #8,368
  • Edited 10:55am Jul 25, 2011 6:58am | Edited 10:55am
Quoting Tilf
Thanks beeb. Agree with you on this. Maybe short term money flowing in and out can cause some noise in this long term up trend.

Agree - things are looking somewhat overbought and there is opex approaching, so some window dressing is always possible.

Important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Markets ebb and flow and confident traders can use these movements to increase or decrease their exposure to a vehicle, whilst taking profits off the table.

This thread sees too many people using the word "bearish" without giving a timeframe. Likewise some have been calling the top in gold for hundreds of dollars.

Everything I see tells me that the long term fundamentals for gold are still very bullish and that it is not in a bubble. If it goes down I will look for support to show and then go long again in my trading positions - if it continues up I will hold my existing positions until I think it has topped.....Short term am wary of opex but will let the charts tell the tale.

beeb

PS I don't post price predictions
  • #8,369
  • Jul 25, 2011 7:01am Jul 25, 2011 7:01am
Quoting beeb
Agree - things are looking somewhat overbought and there is opex approaching, so some window dressing is always possible.

Important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Markets ebb and flow and confident traders can use these movements to increase or decrease their exposure to a vehicle, whilst taking profits off the table.

This thread sees too many people using the word "bearish" without giving a timeframe. Likewise some have been calling the top in gold for hundreds of dollars. I believe the long term fundamentals for gold...
True. Gold has moved up consistently and not extensively. This is not a bubble. The crude oil rally can be called a bubble. Gold has a longer history on being the safe haven than anything else.
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,370
  • Jul 25, 2011 7:43am Jul 25, 2011 7:43am
News Wire:
Investor Dennis Gartman is once again adding Gold in EUR and GBP denomination to his portfolio
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,371
  • Jul 25, 2011 7:46am Jul 25, 2011 7:46am
Quoting Tilf
News Wire:
Investor Dennis Gartman is once again adding Gold in EUR and GBP denomination to his portfolio

DG is a well-known contra-indicator......lol

bad news for bulls

beeb
  • #8,372
  • Jul 25, 2011 9:19am Jul 25, 2011 9:19am
Quoting beeb
DG is a well-known contra-indicator......lol

bad news for bulls

beeb
Nice indicator there . Not much downside yet which would make me hit the PANIC button.
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,373
  • Jul 25, 2011 12:27pm Jul 25, 2011 12:27pm
Went long @ 1612.10 in search of a double bottom. Expecting demand overnight there. 5 waves up and 5 waves down so nothing significant in that.

Stop is in the supply zone at 1605 exactly. Will move stop to break even on a move past 1620.

Plus high volume(colored) on the previous dip indicating demand is there as of now.
Attached Image
Trends I Love Finding
  • #8,374
  • Jul 25, 2011 5:19pm Jul 25, 2011 5:19pm
Can't see this at the FOREX FACTORY CALENDAR:

"Tonight at 9 p.m. EDT President Obama will address the nation on the stalemate in Washington over avoiding default and the best approach to cutting deficits."
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #8,375
  • Edited 8:13pm Jul 25, 2011 8:03pm | Edited 8:13pm
mon. silver highs hit @ $41.05 and rotated back to pivot area which was the low for the day.
although $41.73 is of extra interest this week will be watching how 41.27 responds first.
tue. slvr
41.27
39.83
38.91
keeping with the trend up, will be watching how 1612 responds today.
personally I would be watching how 1627 -28 area responds before adding to as it may be a point in time for a daily rotation back as silver did yesterday.
gold tues.
1627-28
1606
1594
  • #8,376
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:55am Jul 26, 2011 1:55am
Quoting Tilf
Went long @ 1612.10 in search of a double bottom. Expecting demand overnight there. 5 waves up and 5 waves down so nothing significant in that.

Stop is in the supply zone at 1605 exactly. Will move stop to break even on a move past 1620.

Plus high volume(colored) on the previous dip indicating demand is there as of now.
waiting for the end of today or tomorrow. for market movement as at the moment its in a slow range.
i think there is a short coming. albeit for a brief period. entering long now is kind of unsubstantiated...
  • #8,377
  • Jul 26, 2011 2:16am Jul 26, 2011 2:16am
One word: OPEX

beeb
  • #8,378
  • Jul 26, 2011 1:35pm Jul 26, 2011 1:35pm
Good morning all,

great action we're seeing in the PM's this week.

@anyone who knows, have the options expired for the PM's for this month yet? I'm curious if the drop last night was as bad as we are going to see... very minor

Mitch
  • #8,379
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:30pm Jul 26, 2011 5:30pm
,k We are all waiting to hear the descision on US Debt & I'm a Gold Bull. (Surprise)

But...
Haven't placed the Trade yet but 1,605 keeps hovering in my head.
Given the right "Bar Structure" matched with FA, that price could be my Biggest Gold Trade in Years.

B
EDIT* ADD
btw. check the time of this post. I expect Longs to take some casualties within the next 12-14 hours.
  • #8,380
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:44pm Jul 26, 2011 5:44pm
bemac, thx for the post... I'm right there with you with the add, been thinking all summer what number i wanna throw at it. Keep us lesser folks posted.
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