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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #7,601
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:11am Jun 29, 2011 11:11am
Quoting ShirleyLo
oh. I just realised I had one lot of long gold at 1505 earlier.

Lesson today: If I'm not as lucky today, margin has called me. I should stop being an aggresive buyer.

I maxed my cards last month buying stuffs I didn't need. If somebody is to sell their soul to me, I'll prolly buy it too. Bad, Shirley, bad.
Q to You Shirley:
Are u Practicing Fx, or are you playing Fx?




B
  • #7,602
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:27am Jun 29, 2011 11:27am
Quoting Bemac
Q to You Shirley:
Are u Practicing Fx, or are you playing Fx?




B
playing and practicing ! demo never did it to me, I actually make more profits doing it for real lol, I've one mini account to play with aggressively and a regular account where I seriously trade with no 'why' in it - usually a weekly entrance. Bought some when gold was 1410 and still holding on to half of them !

Forex is a never ending learning. New lessons everyday - good or stupid they're lessons
trading is my zen
  • #7,603
  • Jun 29, 2011 2:56pm Jun 29, 2011 2:56pm
Wild ride before with the Euro. That's why I like the Higher time frames, besides the one dip, basically 85 appx pips down, 85 up nice and smooth.

Gold looking better now at the 1510 handle.

Need to take a look at the destruction list.

1515 should be next.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,604
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:25pm Jun 29, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting ShirleyLo
playing and practicing ! demo never did it to me, I actually make more profits doing it for real lol, I've one mini account to play with aggressively and a regular account where I seriously trade with no 'why' in it - usually a weekly entrance. Bought some when gold was 1410 and still holding on to half of them !

Forex is a never ending learning. New lessons everyday - good or stupid they're lessons
Nice.
Good Structure & solid mentality.
"I'm doing this for my GrandKids. I must get it right. If I want excitement, I'll buy a PS32 or whatever."

B
  • #7,605
  • Edited 4:38pm Jun 29, 2011 4:33pm | Edited 4:38pm
Quoting allngap
If not mistaken, all the info can be obtained from the COT data, however it is a lagging data. You can see all the commercial long/short sizes and so on.

latest 24June data http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1308943957.php
whole complete list here : http://news.goldseek.com/COT/

regarding the contract volume, there is a pattern.

On a normal day, GOLD contract will be about 100k range, once it goes to 200k, it is usually a down bar on daily chart.

If LONG goes SHORT and vice versa
Then during normal UP bar, volume is "within...
Snap of Gold Call Options should also be considered.
COT {Commitment Of Traders} data has bearing. Open Interest interests me more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Calls Jun 29 11.JPG Size: 150 KB


*Edit
find them here
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/mar...php3?market=GC

and to be fair... Here is the Put side.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GC
*
  • #7,606
  • Edited 7:16pm Jun 29, 2011 6:55pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quoting Bemac
Snap of Gold Call Options should also be considered.
COT {Commitment Of Traders} data has bearing. Open Interest interests me more.
Attachment

*Edit
find them here
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/mar...php3?market=GC

and to be fair... Here is the Put side.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=GC
*
...
OI should be quite important also, but is the spot price determined by OI or determined by the number of LONG or SHORT in the FUTURES ??
During the May 1 35% correction in silver, i was in position also, OI was relatively high also.
But you have to ask yourself how is the spot price derived ? My guess is that the price is determined through the size of futures LONG and SHORT position, especially in COMMERCIAL side.

then some of these buyers might just want to accumulate physical, no matter how the price fluctuates, they would paid the full amount when necessary, so OI might maintain the same, but the price might be 20% lower from now.

we're making money through futures here, i wanted to be able to "predict" or at least get some advantage of where the price might go in the future.

Right now i see that the bear is definitely stronger. since the hammering down from 1558 to 1490, a $60 down, how much has it recovered ? $20. Big buyers are not there already. usually, it will retrace at least half of the move down within the same day or on the second day.

Be very careful coz we're on the end of week already. Most of the move down happens on the end of week.
Bankers will SHORT it when the market is thin (friday closing).
How i wish that i could make money buying all the way. But if i bought all the way during a $100 correction, hell ya it will be shitty to my account
  • #7,607
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:55pm Jun 29, 2011 7:55pm
Quoting allngap
OI should be quite important also, but is the spot price determined by OI or determined by the number of LONG or SHORT in the FUTURES ??
During the May 1 35% correction in silver, i was in position also, OI was relatively high also.
But you have to ask yourself how is the spot price derived ? My guess is that the price is determined through the size of futures LONG and SHORT position, especially in COMMERCIAL side.

then some of these buyers might just want to accumulate physical, no matter how the price fluctuates, they would paid the full amount...
Very good points & thank you.
I will be carefull.

B
  • #7,608
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:48pm Jun 29, 2011 8:48pm
Bemac,
Not that I have one, (it would be cool though)

Get the nintendo Wii - It's much more interactive and great for family! Check it out!

NO affiliation obviously simply passing along info.

Quoting Bemac
Nice.
Good Structure & solid mentality.
"I'm doing this for my GrandKids. I must get it right. If I want excitement, I'll buy a PS32 or whatever."

B
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,609
  • Edited 9:37pm Jun 29, 2011 9:18pm | Edited 9:37pm
Incorrect.

As BEEB has so kindly reminded us about 30 times, the
COMEX which is a division of the NYMEX (NY Merc. Exchange) is only a part of the Gold market.

There is a HUGE SPOT Trading market in London. If there is any bubble in Gold it will be the commercial NAKED SHORTS on the comex that can't meet their orders when and if AGGRESSIVE delivery comes.

The LONDON FIX, set as a GLOBAL standard for the Gold Price Twice a day,
The AM FIX
and THE PM FIX, is based on the spot price - NOT the futures price.
THis "FIX" is Used around the world, maybe only differing in NY at some shops due to the markets here....

This is a larger market than the COMEX by far. One of the reasons for the increase in margin for Gold futures is that the truth is that if a Bank or say Warren Buffet wanted to buy all the GOLD supposedly in the COMEX warehouses, GUESS WHAT? He could in theory, not legally.

Thus, there are LIMITS, of how many positions one entity can own at a time.
This helps (NOT cures) but helps to try and Keep the PRICE transparent and level the playing field.

There is manipulation in every financial market and surely in gold and silver.
But, This is where things begin to change and I think a POINT you often miss about Gold.

It is NOT infinite. It is Not a printing press that when Bernaked has a great lunch he fires it up and prints 1,000,000s out of THIN air - This is the REASON for inflation - ONE of the KEY drivers of GOLD.

It is a tangible asset that for THOUSANDS of years - Forget about 1500 - Battles were won and lost over the metal, pirates stole it, the Incans and Romans Hoarded it.

Now you are attaching the SUPREME value to an asset, LIFE. What is more valuable than that?

---------------------------------------------

Another thing you are forgetting is GLD - SLV - Nyse Liffe - ETC and all these ETFs which "claim" to focus or "closely emulate" the SPOT price of GOLD.
Not the Future price.

Futures were originally designed for farmers to be able to hedge their crops in the midwest, HENCE the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
As market were created new opportunities arose - ie all the airlines that hedge OIL prices to lock in a rate. Or a Mercedes dealer brokering a big sale to a US buyer, may use currency FUTURES, to lock in or effectively HEDGE, the price, so if the time comes when the cars are "taken for delivery" and the Euro has rocketed, but they are getting paid in USD, it's an even price, although they are getting a weaker USD that they signed on, they bought EURO's incase, thus, cars delivered trade closed. Sell Euro and Take profit to make up for the loss on the USD end. Get it?This would be a "commercial."

These ETF DO have an effect on the price of Gold. I think they are completely shady and don't own half the Gold they claim to, after reading reports of them buying metric tons and the open interest in certain weeks is more than what is available to them, well something doesn't add up.

Again, it all goes back to SPOT. There are two HUGE Indian buying seasons, in which buyers and dealers look to make the best deal for the bride to be adorned in OUNCES of Gold at her wedding.

Yes, Futures are also used for speculation, the same way we trade spot. 7that is not the reason the market was created, - for large cap hedge funds to get rich "betting" on Gold.

Think of a Gold Dealer, a large one. They MUST honor the price Quoted to you on the screen at time of purchase transaction. They also need stock. Say they Buy 60,000 ozt of silver at 38 per. They may open a short on the Comex to Hedge the price essentially not losing money, allowing them to sell to the public at 79 cents to 4 USD over spot for one oz.
In 2008 - you had to wait SIX MONTHS to get a couple 10 oz bars of silver.
The price was at low around 7 usd.

The bottom line is the stuff does not grow on trees. There we go back to supply and demand. Which one is stronger? Well the US MINT has not been able to meet demand for the past few years of American Silver Eagle - GVMT minted Rounds.

Another beast, Cash for Gold spots. Robbing the poor blind of their Gold to make themselves rich. It all plays a role.

Edit to add - Your COT reports for COMEX - which closes trading I believe around 1:30 pm then GLOBEX or after Hours Futures start around 5 something. The spot price is still ticking. The COT is only a fraction of the Global trade of Gold.

More,
Central Banks Trade buy and sell between eachother,
Jewelry = DEMAND
Computers Use Gold = Demand
All these fancy smart phones and "Pads" use Gold
Investment by the "main street" = demand.

You cant use a COT for Futures to accurately predict the spot price. It works the OTHER way. Spot drives Futures.
It may give some insight into volume and where money is going. Yet these are markets, they change on a dime.
Nothing is more accurate a barometer than the Price action of SPOT.

2012 Futures have already hit 1600 last I checked. So think about that! What do YOU think the price will be a year from now?
2000? Some do. Yet they have bought a contract for Gold deliverable in "GOOD DELIVERY" bars for 1600 now. It could be a loser,
Or you could be locking in profits and then some for a mere 100 + per ozt. If the Price in 2012 is 2500. Your contract stands deliverable AT
1600. - 900 USD difference.


Quoting allngap
OI should be quite important also, but is the spot price determined by OI or determined by the number of LONG or SHORT in the FUTURES ??
During the May 1 35% correction in silver, i was in position also, OI was relatively high also.
But you have to ask yourself how is the spot price derived ? My guess is that the price is determined through the size of futures LONG and SHORT position, especially in COMMERCIAL side.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,610
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:03pm Jun 29, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting Bemac
Very good points & thank you.
I will be carefull.

B
Bemac, do you have solid idea on which (futures, options, OI) is more influential to the spot price ?

i've cross checked a lot of the trading sites. from my understanding it is like this

1. OI might be high because there are buyers waiting for delivery, they are not trading, they just want to accumulate the physical.
no matter how the price fluctuates, the OI doesnt change much (always within narrow range).
As in the OI figures for silver and COMEX inventories, COMEX cannot deliver all the silver needed for all of the contracts. Yet, the spot price is down from $50 to $33.

2. when the COM (commercial) added massive shorts on the COT Futures report, you'll see the reaction same as last week (waterfall reaction)

3. sometimes this COT report is not reliable "enough"
Assume the shorts were added after the report came out.
Then 2 days later shorts were removed right before the next COT report data is gathered.
When the next COT comes out, there is no shorts "seen" on the new COT data.
  • #7,611
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:26pm Jun 29, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting XTrade
Incorrect.

As BEEB has so kindly reminded us about 30 times, the
COMEX which is a division of the NYMEX (NY Merc. Exchange) is only a part of the Gold market.

There is a HUGE SPOT Trading market in London. If there is any bubble in Gold it will be the commercial NAKED SHORTS on the comex that can't meet their orders when and if AGGRESSIVE delivery comes.

The LONDON FIX, set as a GLOBAL standard for the Gold Price Twice a day,
The AM FIX
and THE PM FIX, is based on the spot price - NOT the futures...
no doubt the COT as well as the OI figures cant be "reliable enough" to predict the price.
but i've seen many times when the COT futures data has a stronger bias on 1 side, you'll see the reaction on the previous price action.
It is still a lagging data indeed.

what i'm trying to point is that the OI might be high during a strong correction, as physical buyers know that it's a paper game. The cheaper it gets, the stronger the buying demand and the OI might even increase.
However, the spot price might be lower.

do not get mixed up with paper trading and physical accumulation.

we're trading paper here. i just wanna buy low, sell high.

think of this scenario. What if the bankers shorted so hard at the $2000 price range next year ??
sure a lot of profit taking will be happening at that price. The supply might temporarily overwhelm demand for a short period of time, then gold undergoes a 30% correction to $1400 from $2000.
If you're trading and buying during that time, i think the trading account will get margin call.

always remember that you're on leverage and trading the paper game.
  • #7,612
  • Edited 10:45pm Jun 29, 2011 10:39pm | Edited 10:45pm
So did you buy 1491?

I trade paper and buy and sell physical.

they are two different mindsets.

Being a trader does help me time physical buys though.

I also accumulate copper, Pennies - Pre 82 - Bars, shot, old coins.

Buy and sell numismatic coins as well.

My favorites are the ones that are pre 1933 US Gold.
Maybe I'll post a picture of one. Way back when a .900 fine coin of gold - bout' the size of a nickel with a date 1916 HAD A FACE VALUE OF (DRUM ROLL)
$2.5 USD Crrrrazy! Now they retail anywhere from 3 to 800 + depending on condition.

and of course silver as well.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,613
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:50pm Jun 29, 2011 10:50pm
Nice.

To have at least a couple of folks who obviously know what this game is about & how it works.
We may not always be on the same side but that does not negate {perhaps} being...
Always Friends.

B
  • #7,614
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:57pm Jun 29, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting Bemac
1,506 (April 11 should be easy)
1,515 Will cause minor hesitation but will continue North.
1,524 will probably be more like 1,529 by the time it gets there
1,540 will be a hard fought line & If/When the Bulls break it...
1,549
And Then... The Top.

Not a fight. Just a conversatiion.


B
This was a Response to XTrade's Numbers.
I agreed with them so I posted.
1,506. Done & Toasted.
1,515. well I expected this.

B
  • #7,615
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:07pm Jun 29, 2011 11:07pm
I am confident in our numbers.


Actually, when cable was down, I traded some silver for some paper GBP notes. I love the ten and 20 but I always wanted that block number, 5 - I think it;s the latest edition.
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...VvJwgRqDj5E1YU

Quoting Bemac
This was a Response to XTrade's Numbers.
I agreed with them so I posted.
1,506. Done & Toasted.
1,515. well I expected this.

B
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,616
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:42pm Jun 29, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting XTrade
I am confident in our numbers.


Actually, when cable was down, I traded some silver for some paper GBP notes. I love the ten and 20 but I always wanted that block number, 5 - I think it;s the latest edition.
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...VvJwgRqDj5E1YU
Hmmm. mid 1,515 is gonna be tough.
1,525 even more so.
I'm still on the Bull Side.

B
  • #7,617
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:54pm Jun 29, 2011 11:54pm
Oh somebody said something about breaking a trendline.
Honestly; I dont remember who but I do remember it went back to Jan 11

Here's mine.
It's not a call. It's a view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly tl jun 29.gif Size: 57 KB


B
  • #7,618
  • Jun 30, 2011 4:44am Jun 30, 2011 4:44am
flag in one hour chart it can push them more lower if the flag break in lower side trendline
Trading by EA
  • #7,619
  • Edited 5:53am Jun 30, 2011 5:49am | Edited 5:53am
I see some weakness of the bull .
We could see blooding battle here .
I am staying aside .
Newbie .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold15m.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #7,620
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:52am Jun 30, 2011 6:52am
Quoting fawaol
I''m with you, man, waiting for a spike in a region of 1515 then down again.
Waiting for 1494 today
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