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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #7,101
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:47am Jun 10, 2011 7:47am
Quoting allngap
or put it like this,
please shift your charts to weekly timeframe and with RSI (14).

see what happens when it reaches 70 level.

you'll see an engulfing bar down.


Gold is in a mega bull situation, but unfortunately it doesnt move up in a straight line. It moves in $100 then retrace and find support, then moves up another $100.

first wave was end of January, from 1320 to 1440 ($120 move up), then retrace to $1380 (pullback $50).

then after some consolidation. after breaking $1440, all the way to 1575 ($130), then retrace to $1470 ($100move...

OK -however my RSI readings are somewhat different to yours.....

If you accept that gold is in a mega bull, by using weekly readings to show you exhaustion/change of trend you would seem to be implying that the bull run is over. If however you were using shorter timeframes to tell you this, then you could scalp against the major weekly trend whilst still retaining a belief in the major bull trend......It just seems strange to use what you deem to be exhaustion indications on a very long time frame to look for a 5% retracement in the general trend...

beeb
  • #7,102
  • Jun 10, 2011 7:58am Jun 10, 2011 7:58am
big drops.. any reason?
  • #7,103
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:00am Jun 10, 2011 8:00am
Quoting beeb
OK -however my RSI readings are somewhat different to yours.....

If you accept that gold is in a mega bull, by using weekly readings to show you exhaustion/change of trend you would seem to be implying that the bull run is over. If however you were using shorter timeframes to tell you this, then you could scalp against the major weekly trend whilst still retaining a belief in the major bull trend......It just seems strange to use what you deem to be exhaustion indications on a very long time frame to look for a 5% retracement in the general trend...

beeb...
see the danger when RSI 14 @ weekly is at >70, we are now at that level and the price is capped at 1550.
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  • #7,104
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:06am Jun 10, 2011 8:06am
Quoting leandar
my strategy is different, look monthly chart there is pullback after reach $250 to $300 retrace is $100 it happen in every 6th month but this time it was in 4th month because $300 happened earlier.
ya, that is the basic idea, if you remove the time factor, it did move up faster this time around. however the movement behaviour is still similar.

we have move up from 1320 to 1575, almost $255. all the big buyers have liquidated their position and went for holidays.

LONG term trend is still up, however now it might be going lower $100.

BULL went for holidays d, BEAR is partying in da house now !
  • #7,105
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:08am Jun 10, 2011 8:08am
GC240min - currently at poss support

http://www.screencast.com/t/AI3HT0Y2

beeb
  • #7,106
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:19am Jun 10, 2011 8:19am
Quoting allngap
all the big buyers have liquidated their position and went for holidays.

Remember the physical market in London. The gold market is not just what is traded on the comex......

beeb
  • #7,107
  • Jun 10, 2011 8:27am Jun 10, 2011 8:27am
Quoting beeb
Remember the physical market in London. The gold market is not just what is traded on the comex......

beeb
ya true, i'm from Malaysia, and a friend of mine accumulate jewelry from pawn shop, melt it and sell to middle east buyers since 10years ago

the problem is the price is determined in COMEX Futures. i believe big buyers like to buy low and sell high, the price now is definitely high at the time being......

if you see smaller timeframe (5minutes), there is no resistance (hardly any bounce) when the fall happens, means less buyer...
  • #7,108
  • Edited 10:20am Jun 10, 2011 8:36am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting allngap
ya true, i'm from Malaysia, and a friend of mine accumulate jewelry from pawn shop, melt it and sell to middle east buyers since 10years ago

the problem is the price is determined in COMEX Futures. i believe big buyers like to buy low and sell high, the price now is definitely high at the time being......

if you see smaller timeframe (5minutes), there is no resistance (hardly any bounce) when the fall happens, means less buyer...

Not exactly, don't underestimate the size or importance of London's physical market. There is also a trend towards accumulation rather than just buy-low-sell-high - suggest you look into it a bit more

Also please check out the 240min chart posted above which shows poss support from a fork dating back to late Jan....if the bottom is in then it caught it within 50 cents !

beeb
  • #7,109
  • Jun 10, 2011 2:17pm Jun 10, 2011 2:17pm
GOLD can't go above 1550... it seems like some US fundies are fighting hard, very hard to keep gold below that level..
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #7,110
  • Jun 11, 2011 2:01am Jun 11, 2011 2:01am
Quoting MapleLeaf
GOLD can't go above 1550... it seems like some US fundies are fighting hard, very hard to keep gold below that level..
china want more gold to reach near USA, EURO etc now china have only 1.7% reserve gold

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_re..._gold_holdings

calculate where gold will reach when china store gold like other major nations

also look monthly chart that gold never down more than $100 in onz after the 6th month rally because if any country in trouble investors change their investment to gold. its happening in every country.

there is no good base metal than gold so gold never down it will reach at sky...
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  • #7,111
  • Jun 11, 2011 10:31am Jun 11, 2011 10:31am
For anyone interested in the Kitco affair - Harvey Organ seeks to explain it:

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

beeb
  • #7,112
  • Jun 11, 2011 12:50pm Jun 11, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting beeb
... I believe is slightly less useful than a chocolate teapot

beeb


I'm also enjoying the 'Clean' debate on Indicators that measure history in an attempt to unveil a possible future scenario.

Waiver: I plot a modified version of MACD, RSI & Stohs on all my charts but use them as an "At a Glance" thermometer.

B
  • #7,113
  • Jun 11, 2011 3:37pm Jun 11, 2011 3:37pm
http://i55.tinypic.com/2q2fuci.png

Down
  • #7,114
  • Jun 11, 2011 5:07pm Jun 11, 2011 5:07pm
As I understand head and shoulder theory - which I don't wholly subscribe to - a break of the neckline should lead to a move equal to the distance from the head to said neckline. Your chart seems to show a head of 1555 and a neck of 1531 so I'm not sure where your 1450 figure comes from......

beeb
  • #7,115
  • Jun 12, 2011 1:08am Jun 12, 2011 1:08am
recent gold $100 down was for 6th month (or $250) take profit so this head and shoulder neck line down to 1450 is not possible by analyzing fundamental and technical. but watch real time news when euro zone and us recover their crisis then demand for gold will decrease.

crisis wont recover within a day so we will get more time.
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  • #7,116
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:50am Jun 12, 2011 11:50am
Completely correct. The chart is off. If the suggested pattern in fact pans out
the correct target would be appx 1510.

Quoting beeb
As I understand head and shoulder theory - which I don't wholly subscribe to - a break of the neckline should lead to a move equal to the distance from the head to said neckline. Your chart seems to show a head of 1555 and a neck of 1531 so I'm not sure where your 1450 figure comes from......

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,117
  • Jun 12, 2011 11:59am Jun 12, 2011 11:59am
I'm going to have to disagree with the head and shoulders.

This is H4 XAU. Looks like range to me. A dip is not out of the question but
I don't see anything clear.

The USDX has had a little rally last week which I am expecting to end soon.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,118
  • Edited 12:15pm Jun 12, 2011 12:03pm | Edited 12:15pm
Let's take a look at DXY below...

It's is possible it breaks the line. and pops up a bit further. Yet I don't see any fundamentals supporting a major reversal as of yet.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #7,119
  • Jun 12, 2011 12:16pm Jun 12, 2011 12:16pm
Inserted Video
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  • #7,120
  • Jun 12, 2011 6:47pm Jun 12, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting leandar
http://youtu.be/GuqZfaj34nc


Funny things is that Russian propagandist machine blames US for "rescuing" the dollar while Chinese propaganda claims that americans artificially devaluate USD. Go figure.
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