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  • #6,441
  • May 13, 2011 12:51pm May 13, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting six gun
Fontu
I come from the James16 side of the forum.
This was an ok pinbar but not A++
It was the right shape and a decent size.
The body was behind the 1500.
I agree with your analysis, but I'd also say that the Pin pretty much went to the first trouble area and did what you'd expect, for the type of pin it was. Basically a 'scalper' trade, for me personally.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #6,442
  • May 13, 2011 1:11pm May 13, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I agree with your analysis, but I'd also say that the Pin pretty much went to the first trouble area and did what you'd expect, for the type of pin it was. Basically a 'scalper' trade, for me personally.
Agreed LasVahGoose!

what many people don't realise is bars stop and start at particular price level for a reason. It is more than just the clock struck the hour and a new bar was born. Why was the bar that length? We might never know the reason but if price stalled at a level and the bar could not get beyond it on the first occasion there's a chance that when price travels that path again it will find it equally bumpy and could trip up.

So when a pin bar is crowded; for price to move in the direction you would expect it to, it will have to get past all the bar highs and lows. Each one there set to hold price up and turn it around.
Price might not have a very long clear run before it hits an obstacle. So with pin bars it is not just there is a pin bar, it is the position of the bar that is as, if not more important.

The pin bar represents a change in dominance of the bulls and bears within the lifetime of the bar. They are almost like pointers for price but if the pathway of price is littered with the highs and lows of lots of nearby bars then it is much more difficult to translate that change in sentiment into distance travelled and so pips on the chart.

Edit
Very likely we will have a bullish pinbar on the 4H chart.
Price may get further than right now but say it did not get past the current 1495 the first level at which price may have problems is 1503. See all the bars at that level. There is something holding up price around that level and so it could well do it again.
  • #6,443
  • May 13, 2011 1:16pm May 13, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting six gun
Fontu
I come from the James16 side of the forum.
This was an ok pinbar but not A++
It was the right shape and a decent size.
The body was behind the 1500.

But it did not stand out. It was within a crowd of bars. It did not truly represent a change in market sentiment because there had been trades above and below it and in very close proximity.
As Mike from James 16 would say - it did not have space.

The bar has not been invalidated.
The lower end was never actually breached.
There are more experienced traders on J16 who will trade at the 61%...
Thanks for good informations, many things I do not use in my analysis , good to read about .

Anyway when come under pressure no & nothing will work as per I know from experience & so keep myself flexible & ready for any action any time .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #6,444
  • May 13, 2011 1:23pm May 13, 2011 1:23pm
Quoting fontu
Thanks for good informations, many things I do not use in my analysis , good yo ready about .

Anyway when come under pressure no & nothing will work as per I know from experience & so keep myself flexible & ready for any action any time .

fontu
Cheers man - I do not always understand your charts but you have pointed out some things I wish I had noticed earlier.

If you are not flexible you will break.
  • #6,445
  • Edited 2:25pm May 13, 2011 2:11pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting six gun
Cheers man - I do not always understand your charts but you have pointed out some things I wish I had noticed earlier.

If you are not flexible you will break.
Ok ,thanks , I expected all the bear be over by this weekend & real start resume bull next week in eu & gold or at least real real retracement as b wave in eu & so to gold also . but serious manipulation also expecting at the same time .
gold fell very limited within the triangle while eu down the channel to apparently ending 5th wave down exactly to my tp area set before & not traded today though 1.406* , another fall to 1.4048 ok, before not & so gold may false spike down to the low to fail c, yes another leg down with eu ,gold should do now if not beyound double bottom 1478.50/69 and before continue the b or all again up .
Lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #6,446
  • May 13, 2011 2:16pm May 13, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting six gun
Fontu
I come from the James16 side of the forum.
This was an ok pinbar but not A++
It was the right shape and a decent size.
The body was behind the 1500.

But it did not stand out. It was within a crowd of bars. It did not truly represent a change in market sentiment because there had been trades above and below it and in very close proximity.
As Mike from James 16 would say - it did not have space.

The bar has not been invalidated.
The lower end was never actually breached.
There are more experienced traders on J16 who will trade at the 61%...
I would like to know your opinion on the trade you have posted as an example. I actually remember this setup but i discarded it. The reason was price had fallen through support (1074)and in my book old support becomes new resistance. was this not buying into resistance???

for this reason i did not take this trade. I might have taken it nowadays as I tend to be more contrarian and its quite often the case that the market will break a support to screw over the longs and sucker all the shorts before resuming the trend.

(i dont use the 150 by the way)

since you have(perhaps rightly) questioned my trades, i would like to question yours
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  • #6,447
  • Edited 3:54pm May 13, 2011 2:58pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting highlander2
I would like to know your opinion on the trade you have posted as an example. I actually remember this setup but i discarded it. The reason was price had fallen through support (1074)and in my book old support becomes new resistance. was this not buying into resistance???

for this reason i did not take this trade. I might have taken it nowadays as I tend to be more contrarian and its quite often the case that the market will break a support to screw over the longs and sucker all the shorts before resuming the trend.

(i...
I quickly selected the pin bar from the chart as an example.
That is one of the most important things - the best ones are those a blind man in a snow storm will see.
The pb I picked out almost at random sticks out.
It physically sticks out, it is the right shape and its body is completely within the previous bar. Not unusually bars get called pb's when this is not the case.

You are completely correct about the support/resistance - in James16 jargon a ppz - price pivot zone.

So yes you are trading into the ppz.
So price is sandwiched - above is the ppz and below is the 150ma/1050 round number.

Well price will have to go one way or the other.

Price has not seriously smashed through the 150ma since the Autumn (Fall) 2009. The 150ma is a seriously bad level.
Price has got to go one way.
My money is through the ppz and not the 150ma.
There is a clean pin bar rejected straight off the 150ma.

Now lets look at the detail of this.

thanks for asking - i enjoyed going through the analysis.
This is basic J16 method - side-to-side support resistance - where will price go? with a special twist of a mobile ppz (the 150ma)

Price broke the top of the pb and moved up.
The first bar is bearish.
It hit the ppz and reversed.

But price has got to go somewhere and there is that big bad 150ma to get through to go down.
So it turns around to produce a bullish bar - where does the bar close?
Just closes fractionally above the ppz - remember it is a zone not an exact line so basically it has closed at the ppz.
The next bar, price has another go to get past the ppz. Can't and it goes down to create another bearish bar.
Still has to get past the 150ma to go down.

A head of stream is building up and there is a big push through to create a large bullish bar.
Price has broken the resistance of the zone.
Next bar price comes back to the zone from above and confirms it as new support. The wick of the bar stops at the ppz.
Now price can move on and up.

So may be this was not the best example to post.
It is complicated by the overwhelming strength of the 150ma on the daily gold chart.

Normally you do not trade into the big round number or a ppz.
If you do, you must expect price to stall and reverse there.
You are best not to trade into a pack of bars - there are highs and lows which are mini support/resistance areas.
You should be aware that price may stall and/or reverse at these levels.
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  • #6,448
  • May 13, 2011 3:36pm May 13, 2011 3:36pm
Thanks for the lengthy reply.

I have to say that I would trade yesterdays pin again, like you said "my money was on a move up"

We had-

uptrend line

50day ema

the uptrend itself

pin closed above 1500

However there was trouble in the 1514-1526 area in the form of a lower high or FTA.
In my view the weight of evidence was in favour of the long side.

But I have been stopped. But its by no means over, infact In my trading plan i have the freedom to take the trade again if I believe i have been whipsawed. I will defineatly be considering a second crack at this one.

Thanks.
  • #6,449
  • May 13, 2011 3:41pm May 13, 2011 3:41pm
My personal view.
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  • #6,450
  • May 13, 2011 4:11pm May 13, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting highlander2

But I have been stopped. But its by no means over, infact In my trading plan i have the freedom to take the trade again if I believe i have been whipsawed. I will defineatly be considering a second crack at this one.

Thanks.
Absolutely ++++

The pin bar is still in play.
It got retraced - if you had waited to enter you would have got a great position. Hmmm there are so many IF's

If you follow beeb's 4H fork - price hit the median line, reversed and then came down today.
It came right down onto the lower parallel which because it is an up facing fork is slightly higher than the end of the pin bar.

Price then reversed having hit the lower parallel -
This lower parallel is rejecting price really nicely.

I would expect price to get to 1520 after getting through 1504 where there are a good few bar top/bottoms.
I say 1520 as that I expect will be the price of the median line by the time price gets up to it.

Then the question is does price get through the median line or bounce down?

There are a few possibles - plot the 4H fork - look at how price has moved, draw the lines in.
  • #6,451
  • May 13, 2011 4:28pm May 13, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting GeraldFX
My personal view.
Gerald - last post for today.

I have heard of your method. Seen a few charts - looked at a few pages of a pdf on the subject.

The chart is overwhelming for me with lines and colours.
I would not be surprised if no-one here understands your take on things.
  • #6,452
  • May 13, 2011 4:36pm May 13, 2011 4:36pm


Quoting khizer
as my analysis gold will be close today bellow 1500

closed buy lot at 1512

flat right now in gold, and waiting better buying entry.
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #6,453
  • May 13, 2011 6:13pm May 13, 2011 6:13pm
Quoting six gun
Absolutely ++++

The pin bar is still in play.
It got retraced - if you had waited to enter you would have got a great position. Hmmm there are so many IF's

.
Yeah, this is probably the toughest part of trading PB's wait for a retrace and miss the trade, or take the trade right away an miss a far better entry.

This is especially true on large candles, the comprimise i take is to not put the stop at the end of the tail, and as a result i can be taken out of good trades. But i do sometimes get back in, in these situations.

I bought back some gold at 1585 and I will probably buy some more on the open. then perhaps more above 1500. There is no reason for this to not work. again there is no reason why it should!
  • #6,454
  • May 14, 2011 2:46am May 14, 2011 2:46am
Quoting fontu
Ok ,thanks , I expected all the bear be over by this weekend & real start resume bull next week in eu & gold or at least real real retracement as b wave in eu & so to gold also . but serious manipulation also expecting at the same time .
gold fell very limited within the triangle while eu down the channel to apparently ending 5th wave down exactly to my tp area set before & not traded today though 1.406* , another fall to 1.4048 ok, before not & so gold may false spike down to the low to fail c, yes another leg down with eu ,gold should do now if...
weekend unfinished move carrried over for market open & Monday.prediction remains the same.little different in different tf but lower one should stand for first movement & may proceed for next tf . lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #6,455
  • Edited 3:57pm May 14, 2011 10:29am | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting lilpip
the correction that was expected from this jan 3 post is playing out last week and again this week. I would hold buys from todays 32.65 area till proven wrong or have mm prepared for 3x size at $30.00 area and closeout 32.65 when in the money and leave the original order size run from 30 till uptrend is confirmed.
what has played out was expected this is where we need to pay attention.
Bought physical eagles today for $39 spot happened to be 34, rounds @ 36.
cheers
after a very steady and very contolled move up (we felt it) to the weekly pivot (39.37 area) the bears brought her down again.
once again the line in the sand holds.
fridays rotation up to 35.91 (daily pivot) along with move down.
Bulls fought back with the daily close once again above 34.60 along with the weekly.
To me it doesnt feel like a real battle as of yet, at least compared to battles for control of past, whatever market it might be.
I get the feeling that $30-32 will be more intense, this cannot be it..
Ill be there for the upcoming 3rd week of battle.
  • #6,456
  • Edited 2:11pm May 14, 2011 1:50pm | Edited 2:11pm
silver weekly
47.83
39.10
30.37
keep eyes open if bears move further south .
30.37-31.05
31.05 is 2nd quarter trend guide.
silver mon.daily
39.25
35.67
32.09

gold weekly
1566
1510
1454
mon. daily
1523
1499
1475
bias is still up from monthly pivot 1485.
  • #6,457
  • May 15, 2011 3:31am May 15, 2011 3:31am
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/5562/xau1.png
http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/5496/xau2.png

My take on recent PA on gold. Also please see W1 PB, it's stuck it traffic for sure, however still is an indication.

Last week PA was rejected @ WP-MP range, close below MP and setting up for a triangle breakout, upside potential looks to be limited, however still an option, still downside looks more promising, though I'd like to see definitive PA below white rectangle for the downside.

Also maybe we are looking at a bearish flag as a continuation pattern?
  • #6,458
  • May 15, 2011 2:56pm May 15, 2011 2:56pm
I have just been looking through my charts and it seems both gold and silver posted weekly indecision high wave candles- call them what you like.

Not quite so keen on the long side now, I had intended to add back to the long trade I had been stopped on, but it does not look so jolly now... still to make up my mind.
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  • #6,459
  • May 15, 2011 3:03pm May 15, 2011 3:03pm
What is obvious from your chart is that price on the gold chart stops at your trendline.
There is a very bearish candle plunging down - then the move is stopped in its tracks so to speak at the line.
Price has so nicely bounced off the lower parallel of the gold fork beeb posted.
Suggests that trendline is pretty powerful in traders' minds.

I fully understand your gut feelings on this - when you see such a bearish weekly candle and then an indecision candle following it does not shout we are moving up again.

Certainly suggests great care and a close watch either way.
  • #6,460
  • Edited 4:47pm May 15, 2011 3:54pm | Edited 4:47pm
Just to expand a wee bit on what six gun has said about forks....

Remember that they are NOT inviolate - they are very powerful trading tools that can indicate likely areas of support and resistance. If price hits a lower parallel it is not certain that it will bounce from that level, it is an indication of a likely area of support.

Looking at the 240min GC fork - we have seen two bounces from the lower parallel, but the most recent bounce has not yet traded as high in the fork as the previous bounce. In other words the reaction AWAY from the lower parallel has not been so strong. Until this second bounce matches the level of the first move IN THE FORK, I will consider the possibility that the fork is losing strength and that the power of the lower parallel is declining. That would lead me to be wary of a third approach to the lower parallel as there may not be sufficient power left to propel price up again so far, or indeed at all.....

If however the second move exceeds the first in the fork then I would conclude that the fork retains or is increasing it's strength and would look for further bullish moves along it's lines.....

here's the fork......

beeb
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