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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #6,281
  • May 12, 2011 2:54am May 12, 2011 2:54am
Yesterday I was watching "Fight Club". They had that project, "Project Mayhem". It seems to be an ongoing project in the precious metals at the moment. Nasty, nasty.. Until yesterday I had an "up" bias, but now it seems that I can use full power on my short positions.

Quoting six gun
I found a fork I had drawn on the daily. Lower parallel would line up around 1475 if price got down to it. Seems likely although 1490 has rejected price twice on the 1H chart right now.
It looks like we are looking at the same fork (I drew it on H4). The lower quartile is holding now around 1492, lower parallel gives support ~1473. If the support fails, well, it would be time to draw a 1st warning line ~1434.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #6,282
  • May 12, 2011 3:38am May 12, 2011 3:38am
Quoting six gun
After going long and having a small profit on the day it got blown away pretty damn fast. Hmmm I am long again from the bottom - here goes again.

This is a bearish outside bar on the daily.
One of the James16 PA bars.
However as a bar to trade short on this is not one of them.

Firstly it sits on the 1500 - a big round number.

If you were trading short on this you are pretty much trading into the BRN and that is not usually a good play.

The BEOB did not close beneath the BRN and so the bearish move was insufficiently strong to get price under...
Like i say not a pattern i play very often.

Im afraid I no longer put a huge emphasis on brn, I lean these days towards momentum and to me gold momentum at the moment is slightly down. Siver is weak looking at the moment. IMHO
  • #6,283
  • May 12, 2011 4:02am May 12, 2011 4:02am
@mmudasir: that's something for you, I suppose. Remember, fundamentals are long-term, they don't change from one day to the other

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gue...ity-correction

By posting it, I don't mean that the drop is over and now it's time to buy. I'm just pointing to some fundamental analysis which may make the case for good buy opportunities in the next days. Or maybe not
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #6,284
  • May 12, 2011 4:56am May 12, 2011 4:56am
Quoting harvest3r
Yesterday I was watching "Fight Club". They had that project, "Project Mayhem". It seems to be an ongoing project in the precious metals at the moment. Nasty, nasty.. Until yesterday I had an "up" bias, but now it seems that I can use full power on my short positions.



It looks like we are looking at the same fork (I drew it on H4). The lower quartile is holding now around 1492, lower parallel gives support ~1473. If the support fails, well, it would be time to draw a 1st warning line ~1434.
Looks like it is running true to the fork and would likely reach target this afternoon - my fork says $1474.5.
I have a 5 minute fork and it is bouncing down between the upper parallel and the median line.

The first fork is 5minute the next is 4H.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,285
  • May 12, 2011 4:57am May 12, 2011 4:57am
I tried a fork on the daily, looks like down down to me but my first ever one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,286
  • May 12, 2011 4:58am May 12, 2011 4:58am
Gold currently on its support i.e 1480 next support comes at 1458 the graph i sent yesterday its moving towards its daily support line of 1408 .
MMMYYYKKK
  • #6,287
  • May 12, 2011 5:10am May 12, 2011 5:10am
Quoting Euroscum
I tried a fork on the daily, looks like down down to me but my first ever one.
well I am glad to see you have applied the technique.
The issue with these is drawing them is an art and I have not mastered that art but I get better.
Need to do lower and higher timeframes and check all of them.

For a daily chart you should have a point A further back I think.
Like the low in January just above 1300.
That is where the point A on the 4H is.
This fork was drawn quite some time ago and I only looked at it this morning much to my dismay and the fall yesterday is clearly telegraphed on it.

The chart is fundamentally uptrending.
Yeah it takes a dip but that is normal.
My fork for the 4H is a modified Schiff.
when you look at the fork price simply went from the upper warning line and is heading to the lower parallel.
Now it could bounce there or it could run through it and we are down some more.
At that point you might well start thinking about drawing a down facing fork but not yet.
  • #6,288
  • May 12, 2011 5:11am May 12, 2011 5:11am
why is usdx rallying?
  • #6,289
  • May 12, 2011 5:15am May 12, 2011 5:15am
Quoting six gun
well I am glad to see you have applied the technique.
The issue with these is drawing them is an art and I have not mastered that art but I get better.
Need to do lower and higher timeframes and check all of them.

For a daily chart you should have a point A further back I think.
Like the low in January just above 1300.
That is where the point A on the 4H is.
This fork was drawn quite some time ago and I only looked at it this morning much to my dismay and the fall yesterday is clearly telegraphed on it.

The chart is fundamentally uptrending.
Yeah...
like that then
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  • #6,290
  • May 12, 2011 5:19am May 12, 2011 5:19am
beeb can correct me if I'm wrong: when you draw a fork, you should choose a lower timeframe and "zoom out", so that the candles get very small. It will look cleaner and clearer. Somehow I believe that such a procedure has a technical reason, but I cannot explain why.

For instance, if you use M1 instead of M5, you may see many small candles touching a line, giving you a better sense of a resistance. Using M5, you may see half of the candle crossing the line, so the impression will be totally different.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #6,291
  • May 12, 2011 5:26am May 12, 2011 5:26am
Quoting Euroscum
like that then
No -

The B (around 1440) & C (around 1300) are as in the image.

If your platform does a modified Schiff great otherwise you draw a line connecting point A to point B. Then halfway along this line you move the point A of the fork.
This makes the fork less steep and more often fits what is happening on the longer term charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,292
  • Edited 6:58am May 12, 2011 5:29am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting harvest3r
beeb can correct me if I'm wrong: when you draw a fork, you should choose a lower timeframe and "zoom out", so that the candles get very small. It will look cleaner and clearer. Somehow I believe that such a procedure has a technical reason, but I cannot explain why.

For instance, if you use M1 instead of M5, you may see many small candles touching a line, giving you a better sense of a resistance. Using M5, you may see half of the candle crossing the line, so the impression will be totally different.

In general terms the three points of a fork should be a swing high(or low) and then next alternate low and high (or vice versa)

Forks work on any timeframe from monthly to 1 minute - that's the science. The art comes in choosing the right ones and applying what they tell you. For example FX4Newbies tends to look at narrower forks than I do. I find it easier to look at wider forks over longer time and to watch the reactions to the quartiles and sliding parallels along the lines of the fork...but each to their own...

beeb
  • #6,293
  • May 12, 2011 5:29am May 12, 2011 5:29am
I do not want to post charts all day, but I did one more 4 hour. 1462 is the one to watch. So I was wrong in the daily, still up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,294
  • May 12, 2011 5:42am May 12, 2011 5:42am
Quoting six gun
No -

The B (around 1440) & C (around 1300) are as in the image.

If your platform does a modified Schiff great otherwise you draw a line connecting point A to point B. Then halfway along this line you move the point A of the fork.
This makes the fork less steep and more often fits what is happening on the longer term charts.
No schiff.

I guess as it is "median line" you should do your best to get it in the middle. Just deciding where that is, is the art.
  • #6,295
  • May 12, 2011 5:47am May 12, 2011 5:47am
Please contribute in bellow Poll (whats your views):

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=293955
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #6,296
  • May 12, 2011 6:04am May 12, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Euroscum
No schiff.

I guess as it is "median line" you should do your best to get it in the middle. Just deciding where that is, is the art.
Yeah tell me about it!
I have a big computer screen and put a perspex ruler on the screen and I'm fiddling with the mouse to line it up!
we will see if it is right - price has just gone up on the 5 minute chart and then it will start the down move to 1474.50 (or something like that)
Then price will have hit the lower parallel of the 4H chart and we look for a bounce or see if it continues through.
The first indications are on the 5 minute chart where price will stop following this fork and walk out the right side of the fork.

Let's see.
  • #6,297
  • May 12, 2011 6:09am May 12, 2011 6:09am
Silver huge support is at 32.20 and gold 4 hour is at 1478 (gold need n hourly close below 1478 to confirm a downward move to its daily support at (1410-1420) I wonder if we break 32.20 in silver the next major support is at 26.80 n a break would defiantly take gold with it . Gold is currently trading one step behind silver
MMMYYYKKK
  • #6,298
  • May 12, 2011 6:09am May 12, 2011 6:09am
try drawing one on the usd/chf 4h now. I have tried several times and failed, it is just too steep.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,299
  • May 12, 2011 6:25am May 12, 2011 6:25am
Bought silver target 33.20
MMMYYYKKK
  • #6,300
  • May 12, 2011 6:25am May 12, 2011 6:25am
Quoting Euroscum
try drawing one on the usd/chf 4h now. I have tried several times and failed, it is just too steep.
Then you need to try a modified Schiff. you have a standard Andrew's fork which is often too steep.
So take the point A of your fork and slide it up towards point B.

Also move it to the big bearish bar a couple of bars previous to the one you have used. It will still be too steep I guess and then do the modified Schiff.

See where it fits best.
Then measure to see where it is between point A and B.
If it is halfway along the line between the two then you have a modified Schiff that is working.
There are other forms of fork and you can do what I have tried sometimes which is to slide the point A end to somewhere it fits.
beeb says this is a primitive type of fork - an action reaction setup.

It might all seem like people drawing some old sh#t on the page but if price is in harmony with the fork that is fine with me.
It is not all plain sailing of course as you don't know if price will react to your line with a bounce or go through. You can use the PA look of the bar as well but on the shorter time frame it can be more difficult.
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