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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #6,141
  • May 10, 2011 7:58am May 10, 2011 7:58am
Quoting 7bit
The trajectory of the bouncing dead silver cat will soon reach the apex and then continue to drop in free fall. Impact on the ground which is located around 20$ above sea level in this region is imminent. A considerably large impact crater will most likely be formed because the cat is quite massive.

excellent, very amusing....

technical analysis or fairy story?



beeb
  • #6,142
  • May 10, 2011 8:22am May 10, 2011 8:22am
1520 remains as a resistance for gold in short-term...
  • #6,143
  • May 10, 2011 8:31am May 10, 2011 8:31am
Gold's price appears to be jumping around a bit.
Is there some financial data just been released?
  • #6,144
  • May 10, 2011 8:33am May 10, 2011 8:33am
Quoting 7bit
The trajectory of the bouncing dead silver cat will soon reach the apex and then continue to drop in free fall. Impact on the ground which is located around 20$ above sea level in this region is imminent. A considerably large impact crater will most likely be formed because the cat is quite massive.
i didn't look at it as a dead cat bounce yet..
where is the apex according to you?
  • #6,145
  • May 10, 2011 8:34am May 10, 2011 8:34am
Quoting beeb
excellent, very amusing....
technical analysis or fairy story?
I am sure many silver bulls will not be amused after it has all played out if it plays out the way I believe it will.

If I zoom out then it looks to me like it all started in September (at the time the triangle in the G/S ratio broke out), there is also a dramatic increase in volume starting there, making everything above the September levels (and their fair extrapolations) technically a bubble, and if I try to find longer term trend lines for silver to fall back they are all in the 20-ish range.

If it was indeed a bubble then we might be seeing the "dead cat bounce" pattern and this would mean it is not over yet.
  • #6,146
  • May 10, 2011 8:46am May 10, 2011 8:46am
here somebody has made logarithmic charts:
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html

Gold is a straight line as expected and the mean price of silver should be expected to do the same. If I look at this chart and draw a trend line I would not want to buy silver at the moment. I would stay away from it until it is back on safe ground.
  • #6,147
  • May 10, 2011 8:47am May 10, 2011 8:47am
Quoting 7bit
I am sure many silver bulls will not be amused after it has all played out if it plays out the way I believe it will.

If I zoom out then it looks to me like it all started in September (at the time the triangle in the G/S ratio broke out), there is also a dramatic increase in volume starting there, making everything above the September levels (and their fair extrapolations) technically a bubble, and if I try to find longer term trend lines for silver to fall back they are all in the 20-ish range.

If it was indeed a bubble then we might be...
Silver started climbing after QE2 was declared.
When Bernanke stated there would be more paper money pushed into the system.

The price of silver has been suppressed for some time, I guess this created enough upwards pressure the lid could no longer be maintained.

I agree price got over reached and was due for a big correction. I too have called it a bubble but certainly not like the dot com bubble or similar to that.

The silver market is a bit murky with naked shorts and questions over what physical silver is held by other parties (SLV). The impression is there is insufficient silver to cover the paper.

This would suggest price is likely to do anything but crash down to the $20 level.
  • #6,148
  • May 10, 2011 8:51am May 10, 2011 8:51am
Quoting six gun
Gold's price appears to be jumping around a bit.
Is there some financial data just been released?
"(IGM)Predictably, [GOLD] has slipped further from earlier $1518.42/oz spot highs on rumours that the [CME] may turn...
Predictably, [GOLD] has slipped further from earlier $1518.42/oz spot highs on rumours that the [CME] may turn its sights on the yellow metal and up the margins like it has for Silver, oil and gas, even though the exchange has reportedly denied the speculation already. Bullion is currently around $1510 amidst headlines on Reuters from the FDIC staff that detail proposals for [FX] margin calls, coincidentally. Meanwhile, [JUN NYMEX] remains just above $101/brl after the latest report from [EUROILSTOCK] showing a 0.5% m/m rise in Apr crude stocks, but gas tanks falling and distillates also higher, and perhaps more importantly refinery usage down 2.73% y/y. Ahead, API's weekly US crude update due later and then on Wed the EIA equivalent with the latter f/c to rise 1.3 mn brls."
  • #6,149
  • May 10, 2011 8:55am May 10, 2011 8:55am
Quoting 7bit
I am sure many silver bulls will not be amused after it has all played out if it plays out the way I believe it will.

If I zoom out then it looks to me like it all started in September (at the time the triangle in the G/S ratio broke out), there is also a dramatic increase in volume starting there, making everything above the September levels (and their fair extrapolations) technically a bubble, and if I try to find longer term trend lines for silver to fall back they are all in the 20-ish range.

If it was indeed a bubble then we might be seeing...

OK well I don't think it's very difficult to find lines of support above the "20 - ish" level - and that's done in a couple of minutes - superimposed on a Daily fork which seems to have some validity:

http://www.screencast.com/t/uIrU2Kcy

A number of people here would probably dispute that silver is in a bubble and would say it became overstretched and that fundamentals remain strong....



beeb
  • #6,150
  • May 10, 2011 9:15am May 10, 2011 9:15am
Gold's price certainly seems to be bouncing around the red fork (beeb's black) and my green fork (action reaction setup).

This margin business with gold doesn't make any logical sense. Gold is not an overheated market. Price has certainly not been crazy like silver.
Looks like price dismissed it pretty quickly and gave me a chance to refuel at a lower price for a quick profit.
  • #6,151
  • May 10, 2011 9:15am May 10, 2011 9:15am
According to EW theory we may see the retrace to previous wave 4.
if this count is correct, we may see 26.3.
I hope things clear up a bit more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag_usd_019.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #6,152
  • May 10, 2011 9:18am May 10, 2011 9:18am
Quoting longshot_nl
According to EW theory we may see the retrace to previous wave 4.
if this count is correct, we may see 26.3.
I hope things clear up a bit more.
$26.30??

Think that a bit of a long shot.
  • #6,153
  • May 10, 2011 9:25am May 10, 2011 9:25am
thanks - but as stated above i don't give much credence to ew....after the lord mayor's show imho



beeb
  • #6,154
  • May 10, 2011 11:05am May 10, 2011 11:05am
They didn't teach you about craters in chart school?!

Quoting beeb
excellent, very amusing....

technical analysis or fairy story?



beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,155
  • May 10, 2011 11:07am May 10, 2011 11:07am
One of the many problems with using EW and Gold / silver

Quoting longshot_nl
According to EW theory we may see the retrace to previous wave 4.
if this count is correct, we may see 26.3.
I hope things clear up a bit more.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #6,156
  • May 10, 2011 11:23am May 10, 2011 11:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 71 KB




will monitor PA for tg
  • #6,157
  • May 10, 2011 11:27am May 10, 2011 11:27am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



will monitor PA for tg
tg?

beeb
  • #6,158
  • May 10, 2011 11:35am May 10, 2011 11:35am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



will monitor PA for tg
$1505 - $1509 sounds like a good one...
  • #6,159
  • May 10, 2011 11:38am May 10, 2011 11:38am
Quoting Fmfx
$1505 - $1509 sounds like a good one...

yes, agreed



1510 area
  • #6,160
  • May 10, 2011 12:02pm May 10, 2011 12:02pm
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