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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,521
  • Apr 29, 2011 12:51am Apr 29, 2011 12:51am
very intersting

thank you xtrade
  • #5,522
  • Apr 29, 2011 3:50am Apr 29, 2011 3:50am
Quoting beeb
Silver still pretty difficult to chart but this 240min SI seems reasonable - I like the validation from the lower parallel touches and then the upper parallel resistance becoming support....

http://www.screencast.com/t/7gpUPEn56o
beeb's chart and mine are quite similar and still valid. As sixgun said, we are sitting at the 1st warning line for over 36 hours (except for that funny spike yesterday, when it touched $47.20).

A difference to my fork is: mine is shifted, so I have a median line between beeb's upper parallel ($45.50) and 1st warning line ($48.20). Therefore, I see an extra support line at $46.80.

Three supports for silver. Upwards... we may get close to $50 again, but I'm not sure about the volume level today and Monday. Let's see.

So guys... I would love to see $44 in order to save some money this weekend (I will buy my few coins), but it's rather... very improbable.

For gold (chart below), the fork is very similar. There is a support at the upper parallel ($1525, it was tested yesterday). If there is enough movement today, we could either see $1545 (extra quartile above the fork) or fall back to ~ $1508 (upper quartile).

Oh man, now I sound like a professional trader
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fork.jpg Size: 42 KB
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,523
  • Apr 29, 2011 4:15am Apr 29, 2011 4:15am
Quoting harvest3r
beeb's chart and mine are quite similar and still valid. As sixgun said, we are sitting at the 1st warning line for over 36 hours (except for that funny spike yesterday, when it touched $47.20).

A difference to my fork is: mine is shifted, so I have a median line between beeb's upper parallel ($45.50) and 1st warning line ($48.20). Therefore, I see an extra support line at $46.80.

Three supports for silver. Upwards... we may get close to $50 again, but I'm not sure about the volume level today and Monday. Let's see.

So guys... I would love...
Hi there harvest3r
Anything is possible, maybe probably - the metal is so volatile in could crash the $4-5 XTrade and I are mentioning. Go buy some silver coins man if it does, might say go buy some if it doesn't.

Just a point - beeb did not complete his pitchfork chart. Price is sitting on the second warning line, he hasn't drawn in his first warning line. Price just shot through that as if it weren't there.
The distance from the upper parallel of the fork to price is equal to the width of the fork (upper to lower parallel).
  • #5,524
  • Apr 29, 2011 4:32am Apr 29, 2011 4:32am
Quoting Wile E
No, please forgive me really....
No you could not have done worse to make a bearish statement. Prices go up and down, we do not dictate them, no-one here is Evelyn de Rothschild and his crowd. We simply try to anticipate them.

Many threads at Forex Factory have little control over what goes on. Total BS is tolerated. Wild unsubstantiated comment is the norm.

You can make bearish statements as long as you put forward evidence to back up your statement. You may be seeing something others on here have missed.

When it is so clear the large swings in price over the last few weeks are not typical of silver, your question sounded dumb and as such would be ignored. You could have generated a discussion on why the swings are so violent even for this wild whipsaw commodity.

The UK is Bank Holidays today and Monday. Sir Evelyn de Rothschild who is the most trusted advisor to the Queen will likely be at Westminster Abbey for Prince William's wedding. Trading volumes will not be their usual size which means a decent sized trade which would normally not impact on price, in this lighter market will.
This will partly be what is causing the bigger swings but probably not the whole story.
  • #5,525
  • Apr 29, 2011 4:42am Apr 29, 2011 4:42am
For anyone interested (it does influence the gold price) the USD has just recorded its lowest ever value against the CHF.
The dollar index was at a low yesterday.

As the USD goes down, gold goes up.

Gold is seen to have an absolute value I guess so when the USD goes down it takes more USD to buy an ounce.

I have a long term weekly fork for USD/CHD it is right at the lower parallel. Has a very little bit before it gets there. I am wondering what will happen.
Well we don't know, it might just go through the lower parallel - that suggests the USD is totally tanked out and Au/Ag will be heading to the stars.
  • #5,526
  • Apr 29, 2011 4:52am Apr 29, 2011 4:52am
We usually look at gold in USD terms and that it is in a massive bull market.
Well it is in a massive bull market but our view is distorted by USD weakness.

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

If you fiddle around with the chart on this page you can get gold's price over time against various currencies.

Gold against the Swiss franc is not at all time highs. It is in a tremendous bull run over years having said that.
Attached Image
  • #5,527
  • Apr 29, 2011 5:10am Apr 29, 2011 5:10am
Wile E, don't mind sixgun. He is just picky
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,528
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:08am Apr 29, 2011 6:08am
Quoting six gun
We usually look at gold in USD terms and that it is in a massive bull market.
Well it is in a massive bull market but our view is distorted by USD weakness.

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

If you fiddle around with the chart on this page you can get gold's price over time against various currencies.

Gold against the Swiss franc is not at all time highs. It is in a tremendous bull run over years having said that.
I believe (not 100% sure) the Swiss franc is still backed by gold by a certain percentage.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,529
  • Edited 6:31am Apr 29, 2011 6:20am | Edited 6:31am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I believe (not 100% sure) the Swiss franc is still backed by gold by a certain percentage.
I read just last night that by law the CHF had to be gold backed but then they joined the IMF and it is against their rules for its members to back their currency with gold!

http://www.24hgold.com/english/contr...92339902G10020

There isn't enough gold in the world to back currencies or the value of gold would have to increase ++++++++++++++

The whole thing is a scam. A massive, massive scam. The US has a private central bank which controls the money supply and interest rates. A private bank, unbelievable. That means private individuals who are unaccountable to the American people control their money. Their lousy waste paper fiat green back. JFK was right to take away their power but then he bought a bullet.

The pin stripe Jewish (no racial slur intended) gangsters in London and the Chinese control the world with all their off shoots spreading out. You never know what the Chinese are up to. The Rothschilds and their generals never reach the richest lists but they are worth trillions.
  • #5,530
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:30am Apr 29, 2011 6:30am
Quoting six gun
I read just last night that by law the CHF had to be gold backed but then they joined the IMF and it is against their rules for its members to back their currency with gold!

http://www.24hgold.com/english/contr...92339902G10020

There isn't enough gold in the world to back currencies or the value of gold would have to increase ++++++++++++++

The whole thing is a scam. A massive, massive scam. The US has a private central bank which controls the money supply and interest rates. A private bank,...
I've never understood the: there isn't enough gold argument. If a currency can inflate then it can also deflate. You just revalue gold to the current supply of money in circulation and use that as the base for the backing in gold. In the case of the US, I think that would be like Gold 8000 - 10000.

I need to buy some books on the the gold standard to really understand in detail how it works.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,531
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:47am Apr 29, 2011 6:47am
Quoting harvest3r
Wile E, don't mind sixgun. He is just picky
Thanks, harvest3r. But, I can appreciate criticism as much as any person wishing to grow, both as an investor and contributor to the forum. Though, I must admit, exchanges like this, which I thought would be a conversation starter, could variably be a deterrent/intimidator for the new guy looking to enter the fray. Could just be me.
Quoting six gun
... your question sounded dumb and as such would be ignored. You could have generated a discussion on why the swings are so violent even for this wild whipsaw commodity.
So, rather than a closed-ended "yes/no" question, I would have been better off asking an open-ended "why" question? If so, I suppose I assumed the "why" would come along with the "yes/no" answer, considering the no "unsubstantiated comment" prerequisite of this thread.

I find value in your input, as I do this thread.

Wile E
  • #5,532
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:02am Apr 29, 2011 7:02am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I've never understood the: there isn't enough gold argument. If a currency can inflate then it can also deflate. You just revalue gold to the current supply of money in circulation and use that as the base for the backing in gold. In the case of the US, I think that would be like Gold 8000 - 10000.

I need to buy some books on the the gold standard to really understand in detail how it works.
You are kind of right about the $10 000/oz for gold.

Interesting link
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=76926

This is a post from February

The current monetary base is over 2 tril dollars, according to the St. Louis Fed.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

The official gold reserves of the US stand at 8,133.5 tonnes, which is about 261527331 troy ounces, by my calculations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserves

That puts the ratio at $7647/tr oz.

Since the USD is really an international currency, let's use the entire world's gold reserves of 30,562.5 tonnes.

The ratio would then be at $2035/tr oz.

See how the amount of money in circulation has shot up.
My calculations put a price on gold at $9940/oz if the alleged US gold reserves backed the dollars in circulation St Louis Fed figures.

BUT there is more money than this.
The US debt is bigger than there is money in circulation

Says here it is over $14 trillion.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/fiscal.../p/US_Debt.htm

The money in circulation is about $2 600 000 000 000 (2 600 billion)
A trillion is 1 000 billion so there is $2.6 trillion according to St Louis Fed but the US debt is over $14 trillion.

The debt is money, nothing else, how can this be more than 5X greater than there is money in the US system?

It is all BS. This is why fiat money is nonsense. It is infinitely inflatable. It is simply a confidence trick, smoke and mirrors. The instant people no longer believe the illusion you are holding worthless paper, your bank account is empty.
  • #5,533
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:07am Apr 29, 2011 7:07am
Is Bernake due to speak today also...?
What worse does he want to do for the dollar..?
  • #5,534
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:15am Apr 29, 2011 7:15am
Why would bernanke speak today ? Just take a look at the calendar, no mention of fomc. It's not like he just happens to jump in front of a bunch of cameras every now and then.
  • #5,535
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:19am Apr 29, 2011 7:19am
Quoting 4cc
It's kind of fun to ride those wicks.
that's what I keep telling the girl at the coffee shop, but she ain't buying it.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,536
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:20am Apr 29, 2011 7:20am
Quoting Pratik
Is Bernake due to speak today also...?
What worse does he want to do for the dollar..?
I didn't see anything about it...

Does anyone see a spike to $1542 in gold? I got some shorts triggered at this rate!
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #5,537
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:35am Apr 29, 2011 7:35am
Quoting 4cc
Why would bernanke speak today ? Just take a look at the calendar, no mention of fomc. It's not like he just happens to jump in front of a bunch of cameras every now and then.
The Bernanke speaks today it is at the bottom of the calendar on Forex Factory.
  • #5,538
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:35am Apr 29, 2011 7:35am
Quoting harvest3r
I didn't see anything about it...

Does anyone see a spike to $1542 in gold? I got some shorts triggered at this rate!
Its there in the Calender here in FF..
  • #5,539
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:37am Apr 29, 2011 7:37am
Doh. I should really go back to bed, looking at the wrong day. Apologies !
  • #5,540
  • Apr 29, 2011 7:40am Apr 29, 2011 7:40am
Quoting Pratik
Its there in the Calender here in FF..
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
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