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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,061
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 22, 2011 4:32pm | Edited 4:49pm
Clearly there are many ways to skin the cat.

I have bought silver but if I am straight about it the max profit is made on trading.
You are trading on margin.

Lets say you put a £1 stake on spread betting on silver at $20 when it was the spot price.

You have enough in the bank to stand some draw down and then price continued up.
You left it there.
With GFT this would cost £30 spread.
At $46 that is an increment of $26.
That is £26 000 profit - £1000/$1 increase.

If you then put another bet on at $25 and then at $30.... You are talking major profit.

You could not have made that with the physical.
Ok the risk was there at the beginning but once price had moved out from your initial price that's it.
No value added tax and for me in the UK NO income tax or capital gains tax to pay.

beeb I have been struggling to get a proxy server to watch the telly.
Finally managed it this afternoon. I set up a VPN on Windows and found a free UK VPN service. I love my BBC iplayer.
I pay for a TV licence so I feel I'm entitled.

Rush for gold - the price of gold has been pretty static - there is no bubble.

Just thought gold is on Newsnight - we must be at the start of phase three in gold.
  • #5,062
  • Apr 22, 2011 4:51pm Apr 22, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting six gun

beeb I have been struggling to get a proxy server to watch the telly.
Finally managed it this afternoon. I set up a VPN on Windows and found a free UK VPN service. I love my BBC iplayer.
I pay for a TV licence so I feel I'm entitled.

Rush for gold - the price of gold has been pretty static - there is no bubble.

Just thought gold is on Newsnight - we must be at the start of phase three in gold.

Am well aware of the benefits of spread bets but I don't push it because of the dangers of margin for newbies.....

I don't really believe in phases, just price......

Enjoy the weekend

beeb
  • #5,063
  • Apr 22, 2011 4:58pm Apr 22, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting beeb
I don't really believe in phases, just price......
Agree, that is why they call it a price chart.
  • #5,064
  • Apr 22, 2011 5:09pm Apr 22, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting SunTrader
Agree, that is why they call it a price chart.

Precisely

beeb
  • #5,065
  • Apr 22, 2011 5:37pm Apr 22, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting beeb
Am well aware of the benefits of spread bets but I don't push it because of the dangers of margin for newbies.....

I don't really believe in phases, just price......

Enjoy the weekend

beeb
Clearly you could go bang and lose everything trading. With the physical or at least partly physical you have something tangible. You should only have money on the market you could afford to lose. Physical metals is something else, more like a pension/rainy day setup.

Spreading the risk and capital preservation are the main goals.

I believe there are phases to markets.

The price is what matters when you are in front of the chart. The charts looks the same as when silver was at $16 but its now $46. Well it isn't exactly the same as the movements on price are much greater and faster but it is pretty much the same.

What the phases are about is who is involved in the supply demand equation.

Do we have what some might have called maverick investors - phase 1
The wider investment community - phase 2
Mr and Mrs Average being drawn in and wild greed in a bigger fool will pay the inflated price scenario - phase 3

For price to rise as it has been doing there has got to have been a change in the dynamics. There is more money circulating in the system. So either the same people are piling more money in or there are more people piling more in.

As we move up through the phases price will move further and faster. More and more people will have to be drawn in to fuel the rises. That could make trading more profitable but at the same time more risky.

I am not recommending one route over the other. I mention spread betting as that is what I do, but the same goes for other trading instruments. You will make maximal gain on trading because you are working on margin.

BUT (big BUT) you will have maximal risk. That could mean you lose everything. You can't do that with silver bars in a shoe box under the bed (unless you get burgled!).
  • #5,066
  • Edited 5:59pm Apr 22, 2011 5:43pm | Edited 5:59pm
All good points - but is silver rising because of the "phase" it's in or because of rumours of a short squeeze, or because of rumours of China buying or because.....etc

I don't care because ultimately I'm looking at price.....or to put it another way, could you trade the silver chart without knowing what it was? do you have some bias in your trading because of what the vehicle is?

beeb

PS How did you know where I keep my silver lol


  • #5,067
  • Apr 22, 2011 6:30pm Apr 22, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting beeb
All good points - but is silver rising because of the "phase" it's in or because of rumours of a short squeeze, or because of rumours of China buying or because.....etc

I don't care because ultimately I'm looking at price.....

beeb

PS How did you know where I keep my silver lol


The phase is a label not a cause.

As technical analysts we aren't that interested in cause but we should be interested in behaviour - this is what technical analysis is founded on. Herd psychology. The phase is a description of behaviour in the market.

In general you will know the typical characters and their behaviour involved in 1637 tulip bulb sales or the Nasdaq index stocks when they bubbled and burst.

Knowing we are in "phase 2" will not help you at the "bell" on Tuesday.
The charts and price then is all that matters. How far will price go before it turns round for this anticipate pull back and how far will it be.

This is what is important, the phase business is simply an interesting comment.

In the longer term it does matter because you will know there is phase 3 to come and then the price collapse. But I will be dismissing it from my mind now. I am sure we all know what we are talking about even if we define our words slightly differently.

What matters more beeb, is have you checked your shoe boxes lately?

What matters more for those who do buy in precious metals what are the recommends on where to safely store it?
  • #5,068
  • Apr 23, 2011 11:08am Apr 23, 2011 11:08am
Taking a Stab at Silver and Gold Technicals

"What are the technicals of a market that is trying to go straight up? Here we are talking about silver, of course, a market squarely in the crosshairs as April has already seen the largest "monthly" gain in the metal since…the Hunt brothers blowout. We also have a look at the more civilized gold market and its behavior..................."
by Saxobank

QUOTED ARTICLE NOT MY WORDS
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,069
  • Apr 23, 2011 12:20pm Apr 23, 2011 12:20pm
Thanks for the article but this is what struck me the most for the short term. Maybe a straddle position but I have no clue as to how much above or below. Might just sit next week out

Next week critical for precious metals

Another key note to keep in mind is that May silver options expire this coming Tuesday, 26 April (and the April silver contract stops trading the following day). One has to imagine that there are some enormous winners and losers holding these contracts, those who bought and sold at strikes that were unimaginably far away a month or more ago. In the meantime, there are endless reports of tightness in the physical silver market and emotion is running high. To top things off, the London Bullion Market Association, a huge presence in the physical market, is out for Easter holiday tomorrow and Monday.
If that is not enough, we also have the FOMC meeting late Wednesday and further UK disruptions from the royal wedding in the UK next Friday and the following Monday. We have to imagine the price next week at this time will be … anywhere but where it is now?
  • #5,070
  • Edited 1:28pm Apr 23, 2011 1:01pm | Edited 1:28pm
I'm thinking we'll see 50 for silver before a dip.

The summer is usually slow for PMs. Last summer happened to not be as far as I can remember. (Plus I did research this in the thread and the results were basically inconclusive - in other words some summers were rangebound or slightly bearish and others not)

I think it has to do more with the open interest during the summer being light rather than the actual price.

Now any substantial dip in silver is likely to be trounced on by investors looking for entry, this will bring the price back up, then perhaps a bear swing before the holiday months when things pick up, there is also an Indian buying season after summer during sept / october. I'll be looking for gold to hit 1600/1700 by the end of the year.

Silver can again shed 15 to 20 bucks and we will only be brought back down to the top of the old resistance about 21 22 USD.

I don't expect anything below that if it even were to go that far. Likewise I think the 30 /31 area will offer FIRM support on a bear swing. I would even set some orders for that area now, just incase.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,071
  • Apr 23, 2011 2:40pm Apr 23, 2011 2:40pm
Interesting that now more and more people are feeling the upcoming sell off...
  • #5,072
  • Apr 23, 2011 2:54pm Apr 23, 2011 2:54pm
Just checking gold after coming back from vacation for long time , my 1500$ target reached & now set for 1625++ but before that possible reach at tl 1525/30 + in near future for the possible retracement towards 1447 limit , the minimum the expect this time ( may be 1482 or less) before target top & top wherever .lets see .
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold1.gif Size: 7 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #5,073
  • Apr 24, 2011 12:00am Apr 24, 2011 12:00am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Yeah, I was a little late to the game buying silver at 12-17 and gold at 600-800. LOL. Thank goodness for all those "Conspiracy Theory" websites and talk shows saying to buy while CNN was telling everyone these investments were junk. Remember the Gold bubble at 720? LOL

Here are a few videos. I just did a search in for '3 phases of a bull market' and started watching and reading.

.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9-bO...A0AE2E54F59B3F
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWFtLfojQjk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sedsdAfRDao...
and another picture with a couple silver articles
http://dont-tread-on.me/silver/
http://soundofcannons.blogspot.com/2...lver-high.html
silver the best revenge
http://soundofcannons.blogspot.com/search?q=silver
  • #5,074
  • Apr 24, 2011 12:48am Apr 24, 2011 12:48am
THere is SOOOO much room on that chart Fontu YET, to be filled in!

I am maintaining 16/1700 by year end.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,075
  • Apr 24, 2011 2:09am Apr 24, 2011 2:09am
Quoting XTrade
THere is SOOOO much room on that chart Fontu YET, to be filled in!

I am maintaining 16/1700 by year end.
Yes ,sure . me too for that target for now & specially war time not thinking much retracement till all quite & if widspread one to trend up continue over that , some says 2500$ + is logical value for gold , me too . with oil 200+ & usdx below 68.88 & continue if not mended middleeast so early .just my idea during this special time , year /years .


Thanks , I was in vacation for 40 days , hope you doing well & all .

using the same old chart & may need update also.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold1.gif Size: 11 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #5,076
  • Apr 24, 2011 3:51am Apr 24, 2011 3:51am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold.PNG Size: 52 KB
  • #5,077
  • Apr 24, 2011 6:57am Apr 24, 2011 6:57am
Welcome back, nice to see you looking at the weekly,I am interested to see where Gold will open tonight. Likely unchanged. I will not expect any sparks until Tuesday.

Eurozone and UK still on bank holidays. Today in the US is Easter Sunday.I think even CAD is off tomorrow their Easter is on Monday.

Quoting fontu
Yes ,sure . me too for that target for now & specially war time not thinking much retracement till all quite & if widspread one to trend up continue over that , some says 2500$ + is logical value for gold , me too . with oil 200+ & usdx below 68.88 & continue if not mended middleeast so early .just my idea during this special time , year /years .


Thanks , I was in vacation for 40 days , hope you doing well & all .

using the same old chart & may need update also.
fontu
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,078
  • Apr 24, 2011 6:59am Apr 24, 2011 6:59am
Agreed, welcome to the thread

Quoting clc4x
Attachment
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,079
  • Apr 24, 2011 7:17am Apr 24, 2011 7:17am
Quoting XTrade
THere is SOOOO much room on that chart Fontu YET, to be filled in!

I am maintaining 16/1700 by year end.
what is your prediction for gold/silver ratio by end of this year?
  • #5,080
  • Apr 24, 2011 7:40am Apr 24, 2011 7:40am
It's worth remebering that London (which dominates the precious metals market ) will be closed Monday and Friday this week and the Monday of the following week,,,,,

beeb
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