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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #5,001
  • Edited 4:41pm Apr 21, 2011 11:58am | Edited 4:41pm
Sneeky silver got in there again. Beating gold to another (all time - non Hunt brothers'] high.
  • #5,002
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:16pm Apr 21, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting six gun
Sneeky silver got in there again. Beating gold to another all time high.
was a nice day here in Prague at 24, how is Spain

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...s-beaches.html
  • #5,003
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:27pm Apr 21, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting Euroscum
was a nice day here in Prague at 24, how is Spain

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...s-beaches.html
Ha Ha. I left the UK and it was lovely warm and sunny.

It has been chilly, cloudy and rain in Espana. Fortunately we have home from home comfort here in Spain so it is not so bad. Might be warmer next week.

A mate just emailed me for England

"How's it going man? Did you get to Spain ok?

It's absolutely roasting here - like 23 degrees. I'm in library and dying in this heat.

Looking forward to dam now - that's my next trip!!

Harry"
  • #5,004
  • Apr 21, 2011 3:39pm Apr 21, 2011 3:39pm
Correct me if i'm wrong but is silver the only commodity to not reach it's all time high, which I believe is somewhere in the 50's? (If anyone knows the exact price please let me know?)
If so, I would say that silver will hit its all time high (pretty soon) before making this big correction that everyone is talking about. Or it could shoot right through it and never look back
I don't think it will make a major correction until then though.
Nick
  • #5,005
  • Apr 21, 2011 3:43pm Apr 21, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting 555ngone
Correct me if i'm wrong but is silver the only commodity to not reach it's all time high, which I believe is somewhere in the 50's? (If anyone knows the exact price please let me know?)
If so, I would say that silver will hit its all time high (pretty soon) before making this big correction that everyone is talking about. Or it could shoot right through it and never look back
I don't think it will make a major correction until then though.
Yeah, 50ish is the old high and a nice big round number. It will be a psychological level, but as far as "true all time high" silver would have to hit $150 (or so) adjusted for inflation.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,006
  • Apr 21, 2011 4:20pm Apr 21, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting 555ngone
Correct me if i'm wrong but is silver the only commodity to not reach it's all time high, which I believe is somewhere in the 50's? (If anyone knows the exact price please let me know?)
If so, I would say that silver will hit its all time high (pretty soon) before making this big correction that everyone is talking about. Or it could shoot right through it and never look back
I don't think it will make a major correction until then though.
Hmm quite true.
I was not counting the $48.70/oz high. That was Bunkers' bunkum and collapsed as quickly as it appeared.
  • #5,007
  • Apr 21, 2011 5:17pm Apr 21, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting 555ngone
Correct me if i'm wrong but is silver the only commodity to not reach it's all time high, which I believe is somewhere in the 50's? (If anyone knows the exact price please let me know?)
If so, I would say that silver will hit its all time high (pretty soon) before making this big correction that everyone is talking about. Or it could shoot right through it and never look back
I don't think it will make a major correction until then though.

$49.45 fall of 1980 or 1981
  • #5,008
  • Apr 21, 2011 6:33pm Apr 21, 2011 6:33pm
Quoting dryclean
$49.45 fall of 1980 or 1981
I've seen that price quoted as well.

Don't know which is correct but it was January 17 1980.

Checked on http://www.silverinstitute.org/hist_priceuk.php

it is $49.45....

Historically this is peanuts.

http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html

The Spanish went to S. America and looted the silver there. This drove the price down.

All very interesting stuff.
  • #5,009
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:02pm Apr 21, 2011 9:02pm
This "all time high" of silver in the 80's should be basically irrelevant.
It was due to the Hunt brothers trying to corner the entire silver market.
That's ALL.

Thus, it is basically useless as a technical or fundamental factor.
It would be the same as if JPM was allowed to buy all the contracts on the COMEX and take delivery. Which is not allowed.

Now, on the other hand, the answer to your question is no anyway.

Brent crude oil hit appx 150 a barrel USD. We may be on the way there, but we are not yet, THERE.

Furthermore, Gold and Copper have made new highs.


QUOTE=555ngone;4564261]Correct me if i'm wrong but is silver the only commodity to not reach it's all time high, which I believe is somewhere in the 50's? (If anyone knows the exact price please let me know?)
If so, I would say that silver will hit its all time high (pretty soon) before making this big correction that everyone is talking about. Or it could shoot right through it and never look back
I don't think it will make a major correction until then though.[/quote]
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,010
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:25pm Apr 21, 2011 9:25pm
Ok care to elaborate? Completely different.
Sorry.

Quoting dryclean
$49.45 fall of 1980 or 1981
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,011
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:28pm Apr 21, 2011 9:28pm
The talking heads only call bubbles way after the fact.
[QUOTE=six gun;4562577]Keep buying.[/quote]
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #5,012
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:48pm Apr 21, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting XTrade
Ok care to elaborate? Completely different.
Sorry.
I was just answering a question about the all time High.

I know all about the Hunts I was trading physical silver at the time
I agree with what you said about those times

I remember the morning when on the news the govt suspended silver trading to investigate what was going on.

The priced dropped to 35 the next day. 25 a week later.

I was sitting on a few hundred oz at the time. I'm still sitting on some of it. But it is ok I switched my thinking process to this was my survival fund for the day the dollar takes a Sh!t

Ratio wise gold was around 800 in 1980 silver 40-50 range

So should silver go or be near 100 soon? Also Don't you feel ETF's are driving up the price through speculation?

If the US does not get its budget in order and continues to drive down the value of the dollar. There is no reason Silver/Gold will not continue its climb.
  • #5,013
  • Apr 22, 2011 12:24am Apr 22, 2011 12:24am
What a GAPS !!!
Keep Simple...!
  • #5,014
  • Apr 22, 2011 1:00am Apr 22, 2011 1:00am
At the rate, silver is climbing with no pullback, it is dangerous for a trader to enter. One possible way is to wait for retrace to 00 or 50 levels, like 46.00 or 45.00 On the other hand for gold, 1500 a Big round number and psychological level may prove to be a possible support for gold. But these are all my own speculations.
  • #5,015
  • Edited 3:02am Apr 22, 2011 2:45am | Edited 3:02am
I'd like to revise some of my previous statements. I've been reviewing the phases of bull markets by watching youtube videos and reading articles and I am now of the opinion we have been out of phase 1 and into phase 2 (which is the longest phase). Also phase 2 of the bull market is where the bulk of the growth happens and my personal research (my opinion) is that phase 2 is just starting to get momentum (mainly because of public response to SLV and similar instruments). This is great news because we are going to see the general public, worldwide, start to enter these markets.

I still don't think we are even close to the 'mania' phase, which is phase 3, but it will happen. Once people are going ape s#!% over metals, that is when I'll really be looking closely at the charts for the blow off top. Also, I posted a video earlier regarding some metrics to look at (gold/dow & gold/real estate ratios). Having been through the Nasdaq and Real Estate bubbles I have some personal metrics that I will be using as well.

As for as "The Correction", I'll be wary of it, but I think I'm going to really take to heart what XTrade is trying to teach here. Buy the dips and keep stacking until there is a real sign things are turning. I've been watching youtube blogs and twitter's (and writing down notes) of people trying to catch the top by shorting and these people are getting killed. Anyways, I was bored and thought I'd post some stuff that has been floating around in my head.

I'm not trying to change anyones mind or convince people of anything, just sharing my opinions and I think everyone would benefit by reading up and getting familiar with the 3 phases of bull markets and come up with their own ideas where we are at in the cycles.


"Markets often rise higher than you think is possible, and fall lower than you can possibly imagine." ~ Jim Rogers

.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,016
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:52am Apr 22, 2011 3:52am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I'd like to revise some of my previous statements....
We were in phase 1 a year ago some may say earlier but whilst silver was $15 - $18 this was phase 1. The smart money was climbing on silver then. The price was very low but JPM was starting to lose its grip and the economic realities were emerging from the scaremongers, doomsday merchants, nut cases, sensible people whatever it is you'd like to call them.

Defo in phase 2 now.
Not so smart money is climbing on board (along with the smart money). I spoke to my brother about silver a year ago and told him to buy some. He didn't. He is not aware it has gone up or going up unless I tell him. We therefore are not in phase 3 yet.

This is not in all the newspapers, Sunday supplements magazines selling the people silver medals and coins at $300/oz. We'll get there by and by. That will be phase 3.
  • #5,017
  • Edited 4:27am Apr 22, 2011 4:00am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting Ray_1
At the rate, silver is climbing with no pullback, it is dangerous for a trader to enter. One possible way is to wait for retrace to 00 or 50 levels, like 46.00 or 45.00 On the other hand for gold, 1500 a Big round number and psychological level may prove to be a possible support for gold. But these are all my own speculations.
I have watched trends getting worried price would come back to get me. I have waited for pull backs and they never came or I missed them.

Then I get annoyed with myself for not exploiting the trend.
There are trends which have lasted for years. Trends you could have kicked off with $1/pip and then as your bank increased gone to $2 and so on.

You could apply Jacko's hedging technique.

Buy. Trail stop loss. Price comes back. Takes you out. Let it go passed you. Re-enter on trends return. Jacko is Wayne Jackson. He has a thread on here. There is some bad stuff about him in parts but doesn't alter the essence of his first few pages of his thread.

I have been using Alan Andrews pitchforks. beeb is the expert here on these. They are not too hard to get the rudiments of if you have an eye for this sort of thing.

I am using shorter time frames. The daily charts don't mean much at the moment when it is a one way street.

I have a fork since 14 March. Price is rattling up and down the price channel/fork.
The vertical height of the fork is about $1.6.
I pick price up at the bottom of the fork and chasing it up, closing when it looks like it is turning down in the channel.

Price could dump on Tuesday. It could dump at $50. It could do anything but right now the highest probability is it is going up until further notice.
There may be no big pull backs until $50 or more, so what do you do watch all those profits pass you by because you might get stopped out. If price dumps, it will go passed you and then re-enter when the trend returns. Simple really.
  • #5,018
  • Apr 22, 2011 5:19am Apr 22, 2011 5:19am
Quoting LasVahGoose
I'd like to revise some of my previous statements.
.
Forgive me for not searching for your previous statements. But, what was the sentiment you are revising? (Phase 1 or 3?)

Thanks

Wile E
  • #5,019
  • Apr 22, 2011 6:01am Apr 22, 2011 6:01am
Quoting six gun
I have been using Alan Andrews pitchforks. beeb is the expert here on these. They are not too hard to get the rudiments of if you have an eye for this sort of thing.
Hi Six Gun,

Just caught this thread topic on the list of forums. Have had some people ask about XAU and XAG. Very glad this thread is here (thank you XTrade). Thinking about starting to chart these with forks as well on the blog. Beeb mentioned that he was into metals. Will start doing some analysis with forks to see how it plays out. Seeing the difference in volatility would be interesting.

All the best,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #5,020
  • Apr 22, 2011 6:54am Apr 22, 2011 6:54am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hi Six Gun,

Just caught this thread topic on the list of forums. Have had some people ask about XAU and XAG. Very glad this thread is here (thank you XTrade). Thinking about starting to chart these with forks as well on the blog.

Jump aboard FX4 - always good to see your charts/analysis...



beeb
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