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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,861
  • Apr 18, 2011 2:43pm Apr 18, 2011 2:43pm
The trend is still up on the 10 minute silver chart fork
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Click to Enlarge Name: 10min silver fork.PNG Size: 33 KB
  • #4,862
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:39pm Apr 18, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting six gun
The trend is still up on the 10 minute silver chart fork
six - i admire your diligence and enthusiasm but imho it's probably better to find a fork that's working and stick with it....you can certainly flush out the detail on smaller timeframes but maybe you don't need to watch every move via a new fork... maybe look at it in terms of the larger fork and try to decipher what the strength or weakness of price in THAT fork tells you....

keep up the good work

beeb
  • #4,863
  • Apr 18, 2011 5:06pm Apr 18, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting beeb
six - i admire your diligence and enthusiasm but imho it's probably better to find a fork that's working and stick with it....you can certainly flush out the detail on smaller timeframes but maybe you don't need to watch every move via a new fork... maybe look at it in terms of the larger fork and try to decipher what the strength or weakness of price in THAT fork tells you....

keep up the good work

beeb
My 10 minute fork from 15th April is still working ok.

Yeah a longer time frame would be better and I wouldn't bother with such low time frames normally but the way my broker prices silver a 0.1 cents change in price is £1 as a minimum. This is compared with gold where $0.50 is £1 as a minimum.
A tiny change in the price of silver is highly geared, so I feel more comfortable looking at silver under a microscope.
  • #4,864
  • Apr 18, 2011 5:18pm Apr 18, 2011 5:18pm
understood - and take it as advice not criticism.......
i find the whippy nature of silver means I rarely trade it intraday on say 20min unless i'm getting good confirming info from a 240min.

beeb
  • #4,865
  • Apr 18, 2011 5:28pm Apr 18, 2011 5:28pm
Six - I'm a bit surprised - I thought you were a higher TF trader?

Especially with GOLD.

I get borderline heart attacks looking at the 5 minute Gold chart.. Not to mention the spread sucks! but no commissions (pick your pleasure I guess) Futures carry a much HEFTIER price tag especially to trade the most active GC contract.
Not that you are trading that but 10 minute?

Why not try a 30 minute chart, Short enough to scalp long enough to catch a great position trade.

Quoting six gun
My 10 minute fork from 15th April is still working ok.

Yeah a longer time frame would be better and I wouldn't bother with such low time frames normally but the way my broker prices silver a 0.1 cents change in price is £1 as a minimum. This is compared with gold where $0.50 is £1 as a minimum.
A tiny change in the price of silver is highly geared, so I feel more comfortable looking at silver under a microscope.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,866
  • Apr 18, 2011 5:40pm Apr 18, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting six gun
my broker prices silver a 0.1 cents change in price is £1 as a minimum. This is compared with gold where $0.50 is £1 as a minimum.
i assume that's spreadbetting - seems a high minimum to me. that minimum is £10 a cent or £1000 per $1......suggest you change broker if you're uncomfortable....

beeb
  • #4,867
  • Apr 18, 2011 5:42pm Apr 18, 2011 5:42pm
I am longer time frame on gold.
I have 4H time frames on silver, just a tiny difference in entry price makes quite a difference for me in silver so I look very hard and close.

I agree the very low time frames can be frightening and can kill your trading.
Not to be generally recommended. It is generally quite a novice thing to trade the very short time frames.

I probably should get another broker for silver. There are spread betting brokers where a 1 cent change in price is £1, so a $1 change is only £100 rather than £1000 with GFT.

I certainly would recommend most traders to look at longer time frames to get the general picture. Get in on the pull backs and then trade with the trend.

Silver is quite unique for me and shouldn't be because I should get another broker with lower gearing.
  • #4,868
  • Apr 18, 2011 6:20pm Apr 18, 2011 6:20pm
Quoting six gun
I probably should get another broker for silver. There are spread betting brokers where a 1 cent change in price is £1, so a $1 change is only £100 rather than £1000 with GFT.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com

No minimum order size. NONE
  • #4,869
  • Edited 6:57pm Apr 18, 2011 6:42pm | Edited 6:57pm
Quoting Wile E
http://fxtrade.oanda.com

No minimum order size. NONE
This is probably a sensible thing to do for silver. Normally I spread bet which is a UK method of trading.

The reason for this is it is classified as betting. All profits from betting are entirely tax free in the UK. Betting in the UK has always been looked on kindly.

You can even bet with companies such as Betfair which actually relies on punters laying bets and act as the bookmaker.

Edit:
I just open an Oanda practice account - it only appears to do very small number of forex pairs and nothing else -is this right?
  • #4,870
  • Apr 18, 2011 7:35pm Apr 18, 2011 7:35pm
Have you had a look at FXDD? www.fxdd.com

My brother uses them and seems happy.


Quoting six gun
This is probably a sensible thing to do for silver. Normally I spread bet which is a UK method of trading.

The reason for this is it is classified as betting. All profits from betting are entirely tax free in the UK. Betting in the UK has always been looked on kindly.

You can even bet with companies such as Betfair which actually relies on punters laying bets and act as the bookmaker.

Edit:
I just open an Oanda practice account - it only appears to do very small number of forex pairs and nothing else -is this right?
  • #4,871
  • Apr 18, 2011 7:35pm Apr 18, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting six gun
This is probably a sensible thing to do for silver. Normally I spread bet which is a UK method of trading.

The reason for this is it is classified as betting. All profits from betting are entirely tax free in the UK. Betting in the UK has always been looked on kindly.

You can even bet with companies such as Betfair which actually relies on punters laying bets and act as the bookmaker.

Edit:
I just open an Oanda practice account - it only appears to do very small number of forex pairs and nothing else -is this right?
A big, fat WOW on the betting. ( seriously.)

On the pairs - Trade 54 major and exotic currency pairs, as well as four silver and gold crosses. Emerging market alternatives are available, including the Indian rupee (USD/INR) and Chinese yuan (USD/CNY).
  • #4,872
  • Apr 18, 2011 8:03pm Apr 18, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting Wile E
A big, fat WOW on the betting. ( seriously.)
Yes spread betting is tax free in the UK. All taxes on betting were abolished in 2001.
It is actually simpler than buying lots. You bet £x per point.

There is quite a bit of misunderstanding about the tax status. People imagine it is taxed if you make above a certain amount or it is your main income. Not true. I researched this quite a lot. If you trade "contracts for difference" these are considered investing but spread betting is gambling. It is simply the exploitation of the lenient tax treatment of gambling. The bookmakers/casinos/brokers are taxed and part of the idea is most of the money ends up in their hands in the end. You can't offset gambling losses either. So why bother with the paperwork chasing the punters?
  • #4,873
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:07pm Apr 18, 2011 9:07pm
If anyone is familiar with Tom DeMark's TD Sequential indicator just thought I'd mention it registered a sell on the daily chart on the 14th and on a weekly chart on the 15th. Of course a trigger is needed before a trade should be entered such as a down close or close lower than close 4 bars previous. I'll be watching.

But keep in mind it doesn't mean bull market is done.

If I had time tonight I'd post a chart or two.
  • #4,874
  • Apr 18, 2011 11:57pm Apr 18, 2011 11:57pm
So, in a case like yesterday for silver, does one tend to or make an attempt to ignore (overlook) the moment of volatility and look for it (ie - trend) to fall back "in line" with say your fork/channel/other patterns, etc?

How is such a reaction to news treated in analysis? I know there are some chart purists and some fundamentalists here. I would like your take for either.

Thanks.

Wile E
  • #4,875
  • Apr 19, 2011 1:06am Apr 19, 2011 1:06am
Quoting six gun
Yes spread betting is tax free in the UK. All taxes on betting were abolished in 2001.
It is actually simpler than buying lots. You bet £x per point.

There is quite a bit of misunderstanding about the tax status. People imagine it is taxed if you make above a certain amount or it is your main income. Not true. I researched this quite a lot. If you trade "contracts for difference" these are considered investing but spread betting is gambling. It is simply the exploitation of the lenient tax treatment of gambling. The bookmakers/casinos/brokers...

I still have an igindex accout with 700 euros in it, ( I got wiped out 3 years ago at my first attempt at trading), I turned 15k into 25k then lost the lot on crude oil by doubling up.

Anyway they were pretty good as far as spread betting goes.
  • #4,876
  • Apr 19, 2011 3:53am Apr 19, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Wile E
So, in a case like yesterday for silver, does one tend to or make an attempt to ignore (overlook) the moment of volatility and look for it (ie - trend) to fall back "in line" with say your fork/channel/other patterns, etc?
I would say "usually yes, depending on the news".

If you take the earthquake in Japan, you can see that there was lots of volatility in the first days, afterwards the previous trend resumed for most of the instruments. But if you take Bernanke's speech in September, when he announced QE2, you can see that it CREATED a new global trend.


Quoting Wile E
How is such a reaction to news treated in analysis? I know there are some chart purists and some fundamentalists here. I would like your take for either.
News analysis (as well as technical analysis) is irrelevant for my trading method, so anything I say won't have much weight. The news tend to create much noise and few changes in the trends. Since most people trade along the long term trends, they probably don't care much about the news - unless it's a game changer.

On the other hand, the volatility can create good entry points. Just imagine the drop in gold to 1382 after the earthquake. Or the 250-pip spike due to rumours that Qaddafi might have been killed in February. Can you imagine ever seeing 1382 again? Of course it would be risky to go long at those points in time, but it paid off for those who jumped in.

Some other people have different trade strategies. Let's take the pin bars, for instance. A day like yesterday may have created spikes in many instruments. A "pin bar" hunter could have a bigger chance to find a pin bar on such days. Everything comes down to each one's strategy.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,877
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:42am Apr 19, 2011 4:42am
is it a diamond top This relatively uncommon pattern

Since technical traders use this pattern to predict a reversal of an uptrend, a short position is taken when the price falls below the lower ascending trendline. In general, price targets are usually set to be equal to the entry price minus the distance between the top and the bottom of the pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver.gif Size: 57 KB
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,878
  • Apr 19, 2011 7:50am Apr 19, 2011 7:50am
Not familiar with that pattern. Yet it looks like silver has some resistance
currently

43.45
and gold at 1500

Now, something you should keep in mind is the price of silver could fall almost 10 bucks and we would still be in a bull market.

THat would be a great trade, yet an even better buying opp. IMO
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,879
  • Apr 19, 2011 8:04am Apr 19, 2011 8:04am
Correction... Correction... Correction...
  • #4,880
  • Apr 19, 2011 8:14am Apr 19, 2011 8:14am
"Gold is unwinding from overbought conditions, while also weighed by a DeMark exhaustion signal".

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/an...es/2011/04/19/
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