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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,661
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:07am Apr 13, 2011 11:07am
next demand zone 1453
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 3.gif Size: 54 KB
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  • #4,662
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:20am Apr 13, 2011 11:20am
trading the devil (silver) is like taming a wild horse
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  • #4,663
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:32am Apr 13, 2011 11:32am
Entering the next correction phase for the third day... 1452
  • #4,664
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:35am Apr 13, 2011 11:35am
wow that demand zone was hit with a vengeance

do you think 1433 is on the cards today
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold 3.gif Size: 54 KB
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  • #4,665
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:40am Apr 13, 2011 11:40am
What happened to dollar suddenly..? Gold and Euro trading at days low..
  • #4,666
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:42am Apr 13, 2011 11:42am
Quoting Pratik
What happened to dollar suddenly..? Gold and Euro trading at days low..

Obama Due to speak about long-term US budget deficit reduction plans, in Washington DC in an hour
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,667
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:45am Apr 13, 2011 11:45am
Quoting blue_z_zz
Obama Due to speak about long-term US budget deficit reduction plans, in Washington DC in an hour
So can we expect dollar to strengthen further during that speech..?
  • #4,668
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:49am Apr 13, 2011 11:49am
Quoting Pratik
So can we expect dollar to strengthen further during that speech..?
it depends how the market will react if they love it dollar will strengthen if they hate it they will dump the dollar again ,but now the market is postioning to avoid a surprise
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #4,669
  • Apr 13, 2011 3:42pm Apr 13, 2011 3:42pm
Hello everyone.
I read the posts with great interest. Еxcuse me for my bad English. My forex teacher said that when two traders watch the same TF on the same pair then their opinion about the direction of the market should be the same. He said also that the trend is likely to continue than to reverse.
I wonder if different opinions are not due to different types of trade / long term or short-term /?
From August 2010 until now there has not deep corection of $ 5.
I believe that reaching the $ 50 is a matter of no more than 2-3 weeks and the next goal / long-term of course / will be the psychological level of $ 100.
Do you think that logical?

Good luck
  • #4,670
  • Apr 13, 2011 4:02pm Apr 13, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting vladirich
Hello everyone.
I read the posts with great interest. Еxcuse me for my bad English. My forex teacher said that when two traders watch the same TF on the same pair then their opinion about the direction of the market should be the same. He said also that the trend is likely to continue than to reverse.
I wonder if different opinions are not due to different types of trade / long term or short-term /?
From August 2010 until now there has not deep corection of $ 5.
I believe that reaching the $ 50 is a matter of no more than 2-3 weeks and the...
I agree with you. The silver should reach the 50 in a few weeks. But I guess that the main correction should be around the 54 where we have the 423.6 fibonancci on the month chart. By the way aroud the 50 we might have some congestion because it is the 423.6 fibonancci in the weekly chart.
  • #4,671
  • Apr 13, 2011 4:37pm Apr 13, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting abreu
I agree with you. The silver should reach the 50 in a few weeks. But I guess that the main correction should be around the 54 where we have the 423.6 fibonancci on the month chart. By the way aroud the 50 we might have some congestion because it is the 423.6 fibonancci in the weekly chart.
How many traders use the 423.6 fib?
I have never used it and to be honest never heard of it before.
I somehow doubt market order flow will not be determined by this fib level.
  • #4,672
  • Apr 13, 2011 4:44pm Apr 13, 2011 4:44pm
Quoting abreu
I agree with you. The silver should reach the 50 in a few weeks. But I guess that the main correction should be around the 54 where we have the 423.6 fibonancci on the month chart. By the way aroud the 50 we might have some congestion because it is the 423.6 fibonancci in the weekly chart.

Nobody has a crystal ball mate, so when i look at the Technicals i always try to figure out what the market could do not what it "should" do. Then i rightly or wrongly take the trades i think are most likely based on the higher TF trend.

vladirich, just because you think silver has'nt made a 5$ correction does'nt mean its not going to happen (maybe tomorrow, maybe next week or month). anything can happen so all you can do as a newbie is load the game in your favour by trading with the under lying market momentum.

I see no TA which leads me to make a short trade on gold or silver and i have'nt shorted these PM's ever. Until i see a bias change in the weekly and daily PA i'm long.

  • #4,673
  • Apr 13, 2011 8:52pm Apr 13, 2011 8:52pm
I don't personally, but if you plot it on a daily chart, most likely it will tune in with a support or resistance area. Fibonacci was a GENIUS!

Probably also better understood as a Fibo expansion I would think.

Quoting six gun
How many traders use the 423.6 fib?
I have never used it and to be honest never heard of it before.
I somehow doubt market order flow will not be determined by this fib level.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,674
  • Apr 13, 2011 8:54pm Apr 13, 2011 8:54pm
It would be better understood if you could show us a chart of where you are pulling the original fibo from.

What move? when? down / up?

Quoting abreu
I agree with you. The silver should reach the 50 in a few weeks. But I guess that the main correction should be around the 54 where we have the 423.6 fibonancci on the month chart. By the way aroud the 50 we might have some congestion because it is the 423.6 fibonancci in the weekly chart.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,675
  • Apr 13, 2011 9:09pm Apr 13, 2011 9:09pm
No. Not at all.

We are right smack in the middle of the range of 1451 and 1461 at 1455.

When I saw your chart I thought wow, quite a dramatic move, yet then blown up I realized it is a 5 minute chart.

I strongly suggest not trading Gold on anything lower than an M30 chart unless you are an experienced scalper and we are in range. Always refer to the daily chart for drawing strong lines.

Gold can move 10 to 50 bucks in a day, on a five minute chart this looks like the breakout of all time, yet when you punch it up a bit things make more sense.

----------------------

Also, when drawing trendlines with Gold where there are a lot of pinbars, and reactive highs and lows it is equally if not more important the lines coincide with major and minor support and resistances. When you have things plotted correctly the lines "just FIT" the actual candle stick EXACT points are not as important as the GENERAL areas of interest.

Another reason using a line chart for major supports and resistances can chop out the noise.
To each is own, I don't know your style but all I see is consolidation.
Take a look at my triangle and you will see the difference.

Quoting blue_z_zz
wow that demand zone was hit with a vengeance

do you think 1433 is on the cards today
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold_4_12_11_traingle.GIF Size: 45 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,676
  • Apr 13, 2011 9:35pm Apr 13, 2011 9:35pm
Quoting XTrade
I don't personally, but if you plot it on a daily chart, most likely it will tune in with a support or resistance area. Fibonacci was a GENIUS!

Probably also better understood as a Fibo expansion I would think.
My point XTrade, you don't use this level of fib and I don't suppose many people do.

Fibbonacci was a genius in spotting the fib ratio because it is found in nature but I genuinely don't believe price movements are governed by Fibonacci ratios per say.

I believe traders have this in their tool box and nearly everyone uses them. Because nearly everyone uses them they are well respected, just because I know the guy next to me is also using fibs. The most commonly uses ratio is 50% and to my knowledge that isn't a Fib ratio at all.

I don't know enough about them but if this 423.6% would also be a lower fib ratio as we got nearer the target, then the notion this massive fib ratio had substance becomes much more a reality.

As you say if the poster would put up a chart showing what he is saying and explain why we should have congestion at that level, this becomes a different matter.

I was just looking at the silver charts. We are back on the trend after erasing what was an over zealous run up to $42. If you were to chop out the fast run up to $42 and the downwards correction, you would hardly know it had happened.

Look at the daily chart since price left $20. See how price accelerates upwards from the trend and then there is a correction back to the trend. The only true dip we have had was in the middle of March.

The market has only asked at most a little over $2 back from silver on each pull back and when given back price continues ahead.

Not trying to speculate but silver has given its $2 back and we are in line with the trend. I was expecting more of a drop but I would not be surprised if that was your lot.
  • #4,677
  • Apr 13, 2011 9:57pm Apr 13, 2011 9:57pm
Quoting XTrade
When I saw your chart I thought wow, quite a dramatic move, yet then blown up I realized it is a 5 minute chart.
That's funny, I thought the same thing, until I noticed the 5 minute chart! haha!

How are you using the Fractals, if you don't mind me asking?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,678
  • Apr 13, 2011 10:29pm Apr 13, 2011 10:29pm
Silver looks a wee bit stronger than Gold atm.

As far as the fib ratio 4.236 it comes next in the series after 2.618

1.618 x 1.618 = 2.618
2.618 x 1.618 = 4.236

It is mainly used in fib expansions measuring wave 2 to target wave 5 tops especially blowoff tops.

Here is an EURUSD daily chart which actually I believe is in a 3 wave ABC and not a 5 wave nonetheless this shows an example of 423.6% expansion. Don't know if that is what the other poster was talking about though but this is the correct usage as I was taught:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.236 fib.png Size: 58 KB
  • #4,679
  • Apr 13, 2011 10:37pm Apr 13, 2011 10:37pm
1460 seems to be the resistance at the moment...
  • #4,680
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:50pm Apr 13, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting SunTrader
Silver looks a wee bit stronger than Gold atm.

As far as the fib ratio 4.236 it comes next in the series after 2.618

1.618 x 1.618 = 2.618
2.618 x 1.618 = 4.236

It is mainly used in fib expansions measuring wave 2 to target wave 5 tops especially blowoff tops.

Here is an EURUSD daily chart which actually I believe is in a 3 wave ABC and not a 5 wave nonetheless this shows an example of 423.6% expansion. Don't know if that is what the other poster was talking about though but this is the correct usage as I was taught:
Technically, I think what you have drawn is a Fib EXTENSION not an expansion. I used to get them confused until it was pointed out to me.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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