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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,221
  • Edited 1:24pm Apr 5, 2011 1:23pm | Edited 1:24pm
To each is own but man I do NOT get you.

You're waiting for Gold which is in a massive bull run, that just BLEW through every record high without a hitch, to go short for a 3 USD move?

It just seems backwards. Why not be holding longs from below solid supports and just raking in the dough each day the price rises? Less stress, less staring at the screen, higher profits on higher time frames..

It's so simple just wait for a dip, look at your supports and the PA get on the train and ride.

I mean if you are looking for 3 dollar moves you can trade those all day any day. The price almost always move 10 bucks, but usually no less than 3. I mean even silver is having dollar + days these days.

Why not just scalp the market then all day.

-----------------

In all honesty how many times has this system backfired, you called a top and
it was too soon then the market took you out.

I'm not trying to criticize, it's just..... WE are IN a MASSIVE BULL RUN. THe trend IS your friend.

Quoting harvest3r
me every time there is a rally, harvest3r will be there to counter-trade

greetings from the laundry shop - ops, the drying phase is over, I gotta go!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,222
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:29pm Apr 5, 2011 1:29pm
Folks, I plan to short Gold and close at 1450. It must be back to 1450 and I will be patient to wait.
  • #4,223
  • Apr 5, 2011 1:45pm Apr 5, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting XTrade
To each is own but man I do NOT get you.

You're waiting for Gold which is in a massive bull run, that just BLEW through every record high without a hitch, to go short for a 3 USD move?

It just seems backwards. Why not be holding longs from below solid supports and just raking in the dough each day the price rises? Less stress, less staring at the screen, higher profits on higher time frames..

It's so simple just wait for a dip, look at your supports and the PA get on the train and ride.

I mean if you are looking for 3 dollar moves you can...
Every time there is a new high we often get a quick sharp 50 dollar retrace, although the last one was only 30. It spends a week or 2 grinding higher and then in a matter of days it is down. I like to ride these down but it is risky. If you can get both ways then all the better.
  • #4,224
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:00pm Apr 5, 2011 2:00pm
Point made, yet since the inception of this thread one could have put on a large position at 1050 and have a Clean $400 dollar move in profit on that lone trade. Looking at the market once a day or even once a week if they so desired.

Not to mention scaling in through the course of all the dips we have taken on the way here.

Look if it works for you fine. I just don't see the sense or the stress of fighting one of the most volatile bull runs in any market today.

I can understand a quick intraday short. Yet why not find a broker that allows hedging, build the longs and scalp the counter trend shorts.

So far fighting this trend is a losing battle.

Going long you can be in the market making money. Taking selective shorts will not produce the same results right now.

Hello 1500.

Quoting Euroscum
Every time there is a new high we often get a quick sharp 50 dollar retrace, although the last one was only 30. It spends a week or 2 grinding higher and then in a matter of days it is down. I like to ride these down but it is risky. If you can get both ways then all the better.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,225
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:01pm Apr 5, 2011 2:01pm
This chart is a few minutes old now.

Fawaol take a look.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD _ BREAKOUT line vers h4 april 2011.GIF Size: 35 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,226
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:03pm Apr 5, 2011 2:03pm
still no signals to short gold..

Take care everyone..

some people here were shorting gold at 1440 thinking it would go down and it KEPT going up and reaching new high time history highs...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #4,227
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:05pm Apr 5, 2011 2:05pm
Why must it?

What if it goes to 1460? What is your stop for this trade.
Again the same thing we are discussing.

It most likely will shed some of the gains later, yet "most likely's" are not valid reasons for a trade.

In fact, you could have already taken and completed this trade. At a loss or a gain is left to be told.


Quoting quyenpt84
Folks, I plan to short Gold and close at 1450. It must be back to 1450 and I will be patient to wait.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,228
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:08pm Apr 5, 2011 2:08pm
Great point. I with you bud.

I may take small profits, yet I decided against that the other day and now we have a $23 single H4 candle... Hmm. Glad I stayed in.

Buy dips.

Quoting MapleLeaf
still no signals to short gold..

Take care everyone..

some people here were shorting gold at 1440 thinking it would go down and it KEPT going up and reaching new high time history highs...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,229
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:10pm Apr 5, 2011 2:10pm
I got to admit that I am putting more and more people on my "Ignore" list 'cos I get bored with hearing the same thing over and over again. If you've got a valid technical or fundamental reason then please share it.

"It's gone up therefore it'll go down...." isn't any help and is actually less likely to work out than flipping a coin.......

beeb
  • #4,230
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:12pm Apr 5, 2011 2:12pm
What's important here is that with conviction the MAJOR resistance for the past
Month has been 1440 and it is now BROKEN.

This is bullish. The Futures pits are closed with a new high.

I could see a potential test on 1440 at some point, yet we may easily move sideways until the next breakout. That is is safer time to look for 2 and 3 dollar moves.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,231
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:13pm Apr 5, 2011 2:13pm
Great trading

Hope it worked out just as you wanted.

Quoting GiorgioM
Anyone playing the imminent gold 1440 breakout?
I'm entering 4 lots on a stop order at 1439.5 and taking partial profits, hopefully, during the take off. See you later.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,232
  • Apr 5, 2011 2:50pm Apr 5, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting XTrade
Point made, yet since the inception of this thread one could have put on a large position at 1050 and have a Clean $400 dollar move in profit on that lone trade. Looking at the market once a day or even once a week if they so desired.

Not to mention scaling in through the course of all the dips we have taken on the way here.

Look if it works for you fine. I just don't see the sense or the stress of fighting one of the most volatile bull runs in any market today.

I can understand a quick intraday short. Yet why not find a broker that allows...

You are right but I am never good joining trends mid-stream or in this case IMO in its final leg up. I vowed to do longer term trades at the beginning of the year but I am still stuck to day trading between my other business.

The reality is that most of us are bottom and top pickers when there is really more money to be made following the trend. I hope to be following it down soon
  • #4,233
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:02pm Apr 5, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting XTrade
To each is own but man I do NOT get you.

You're waiting for Gold which is in a massive bull run, that just BLEW through every record high without a hitch, to go short for a 3 USD move?

(...)

In all honesty how many times has this system backfired, you called a top and it was too soon then the market took you out.

I'm not trying to criticize, it's just..... WE are IN a MASSIVE BULL RUN. THe trend IS your friend.


I must confess that your post was funny - sometimes I like to make people get confused.

Even though I fell flattered by your worries about my trades , it's a pity that you got upset... Well, as it has been posted already, there are ways and ways to trade. I'm not scalping the way you think. Here it's not the place to explain personal strategies and systems, so I'm not going to tell you why I shorted at 1451. If it's a record high or if it's the deepest bottom after a sell-off, it's irrelevant, as long as my strategy tells me to do that.

I can understand you - some newbies can hear me saying "I'm short" and will believe that shorting at highs is logic and safe. Agreed.

Nevertheless, as part of a specific strategy, it's more than desirable to short at tops. For instance, what Euroscum said is correct: most tops, if not all, were followed by sell-offs. Call it correction, volatility, market manipulation, whatever: it's not going up forever in a straight line. No one here would bet his house on gold reaching 2000 (well, I believe some would ). Anyway, nobody should take for granted that the trend will continue. I don't, therefore I scalp. It's my choice. It's my way to trade.

The trend can be YOUR friend, but surely it's not mine. It's definitely my ENEMY. My friend is the VOLATILITY. By the way: I'm short from 1456 too.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not mad and I'm not criticizing your position, just trying to clarify mine.

RAUL!!! RAULLL!!!! RAUUUUULLL!!! 3:2 for Schalke, that's unbelievable! Sadly I am fan of both teams, one of them has to go... What?!?!? 4:2!!!!! That's crazy!
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,234
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:15pm Apr 5, 2011 3:15pm
harvester, i like your quote. every hero needs villain hahaha. I didn't go short from 1450 coz hadn't got confirmation from the PA. time to sleep, it's 3am on my country.
  • #4,235
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:16pm Apr 5, 2011 3:16pm
Just to recap. here is a chart of the silver trade i was in, After price broke through 36.50 ish it came back to retest, old resistance becomes new support, and hence old supply becomes new demand.

There were two rejection candles, indicating buying pressure off this now broken level. I am not concerned at all as to the definition of a pin bar, but this was a high probability trade and i had no hesitation entering. Also the 8day ema was acting as dynamic support and the buyers were coming in along it and driving it up. Pretty simple stuff really.

And at the end of the day this is only 10% of successful trading, risk control is far more important, and if i had been stopped i would not have blinked.

So far have scaled out of 2/3 approx.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-05_2105silver.png Size: 27 KB
  • #4,236
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:17pm Apr 5, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting XTrade
Why must it?

What if it goes to 1460? What is your stop for this trade.
Again the same thing we are discussing.

It most likely will shed some of the gains later, yet "most likely's" are not valid reasons for a trade.

In fact, you could have already taken and completed this trade. At a loss or a gain is left to be told.
Dear XTrade,

I short at 1454 and will be patient to see it drops to 1450, I believe in swing movement of Gold. I dont set the Stop Loss because the pair may hit 1460.

Rgrds,
  • #4,237
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:37pm Apr 5, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting quyenpt84
Dear XTrade,

I short at 1454 and will be patient to see it drops to 1450, I believe in swing movement of Gold. I dont set the Stop Loss because the pair may hit 1460.

Rgrds,
Shorting against the trend with no SL? We will probably see a pull back but there is no guarantee....
  • #4,238
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:02pm Apr 5, 2011 4:02pm
[quote=quyenpt84;4523737

I short at 1454.....I dont set the Stop Loss because the pair may hit 1460.

[/QUOTE]

Wow, why does everybody trying to short when even on smaller time frames today was a clear upward movement. Anyway, goodluck.

I sold 7lots ( my kind of lots ), waiting the 1460 to sell another 2 and than wait for a retest of lower, grounds 1420-1430 to add longs.


Have a good trade, everyone.
  • #4,239
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:10pm Apr 5, 2011 4:10pm
Well, let's get some things straightened out here. I am not worried. If it was my account then maybe I would be.

Nor am I criticising you. Just merely pointing out the obvious.

There is a (slim) possibility, but it is highly, highly unlikely whether you are a bank trader for JPM, Pro indy trader, small cap spec, farmer, or hedge fund gold trader, that in the past few years someone has made more money on shorting after a record high for a relatively small 50 to 100 USD move down,
--
As opposed to holding longs from 700, 1000, 1200 etc. or even 1300 at this point. There is a big difference in my eyes and style then counter trend trading for 50 bucks, rather than RIDING THE TREND for $400 bucks.

Furthermore,
There is NO guarantee Gold is going to fall 50 to 100 just because it has in the past after a record high.

As I have tried time and time again to articulate via words and charts like below, the tru resistance for the past month was 1440. It is broken now. This is a very bullish signal and close.

Yet, we are in new territory now. Had we not breached this level and sustained it so far (instead of creating a pinbar down) then I may see a potential short setup.

As of now it is buy dips.

If you want to scalp all day why not just do that?

Well, that's that. Not much more to say since you don't seem to be willing to discuss your method.

Good luck.
X

As I said before you will see 1450 before the next 50 buck correction.


Quoting harvest3r


I must confess that your post was funny - sometimes I like to make people get confused.

Even though I fell flattered by your worries about my trades , it's a pity that you got upset... Well, as it has been posted already, there are ways and ways to trade. I'm not scalping the way you think. Here it's not the place to explain personal strategies and systems, so I'm not going to tell you why I shorted at 1451. If it's a record high or if it's the deepest bottom after a sell-off, it's irrelevant, as long as my strategy tells me to...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,240
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:13pm Apr 5, 2011 4:13pm
Well put. There never is.

BTW: Silver demand: In my avatar are 1 ozt Silver Engelhard Prospectors - They are bullion rounds not made since the 80's.
The dealer I bought from has plenty of other stock yet had posted these the other day, I believe they had about 500 available.

Since I know they are amongst physical investors highly popular I checked back, today to see the price difference.
SOLD OUT. in less than 48 hours.

Quoting highlander2
Shorting against the trend with no SL? We will probably see a pull back but there is no guarantee....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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