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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,121
  • Edited 7:38am Apr 4, 2011 7:16am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting SunTrader
This is the definition of a Pinbar I prefer:

"The pin bar formation is actually a price reversal pattern consisting of three bars. The term “Pin Bar” is an abbreviation for the term “Pinocchio Bar”. Once familiarized with pin bar formation it is apparent from looking at any price chart just how profitable this pattern can be. Let’s go over exactly what a pin bar formation is and how you can take advantage of the [url="http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-trading-strategies/pin-bars-forex-trading-definition/"][b]pin bar...
Ah from Nial Fuller's website.
He started out with James16 and then set up on his own. He does some nice videos and posted some good technical information on gold in the past.

This is the article Nial did. I do not agree with every circled trade on his chart being high probability (depends how conservative you are) but it gives an idea of what this pinbar thing is all about.

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-trading-strategies/price-action-trend-trading-with-gold-forex
  • #4,122
  • Apr 4, 2011 7:57am Apr 4, 2011 7:57am
urggh - don't like that at all....

he tells you how to get in after the event (I assume you can't tell a pin bar until the following day) and doesn't tell you when to get out.....

not my cup of tea I'm afraid

beeb
  • #4,123
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:08am Apr 4, 2011 8:08am
Quoting beeb
urggh - don't like that at all....

he tells you how to get in after the event (I assume you can't tell a pin bar until the following day) and doesn't tell you when to get out.....

not my cup of tea I'm afraid

beeb
No you can't get in until the price action is confirmed.
But the idea is you are not trading every few minutes.

No the pinbar as such will not tell you when to get out. But I can certainly put up some charts explaining this side of the equation. Some people just have the idea they'll go for X pips. This has no real logic behind it.

I will put together a few charts to exemplify and perhaps sweeten the tea a little!
  • #4,124
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:24am Apr 4, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Euroscum
If you could get something for $4 and sell it on ebay for $38 I do not think your business would last too long before your competitors found out.

Silver is in a bubble for sure. All silver miners will be cranking it out full speed at these prices, full power 24 hours. Sooner or later it is going to pop, like it has multiple times in the past. I will post this one on silver toppings again.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26865.html

Hi. I'm back to the link you posted.

The author's approach to the 200 DMA as a kind of "magnet" is very "natural" and instinctive, I like it (I know beeb don't ). The odds that a correction will happen when the chart gets too far from the average is quite high and it can be a very good selling point.

I took all the silver daily quotes since 1992 + the correspondent 200 DMA, calculated the relation among them (just like the author's rSilver ratio) and created a chart out of it. Unfortunately I cannot create a picture and post here .

The record was in April 2006, silver reached 1.70 times the 200 DMA!

There were 4 spikes above 1.4 until 2008, everytime there was a sharp fall back to 1.0, sometimes even lower.

In 2009 it was different, there was a roller-coaster between 1.0 and 1.3

Since mid-2010 we are quite high, averaging 1.3. This "hill" in the chart is becoming wider and wider... There is nothing similar inside this timeframe (~ 20 years).

Yes, the higher we get, the closer we are to a correction. The problem is that we are staying for too long on that higher area. There is a "risk" that silver may consolidate well above $30 and only correct to 1.0 x 200DMA when its value is $30, $31, $32... or even higher! The 200 DMA is at 25.77 today, we are not that far away.

Anyway, that's just an interpretation of historical data (that's what happens when one has too much spare time at the office ).
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,125
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:25am Apr 4, 2011 8:25am
OK well let me show you 240min GC via forks - real trades from recent days....

Chart 1 is what I drew when I saw quartile action - gave me a possible fork... http://www.screencast.com/t/VRrwhLiZ8fO9

Having the fork, Chart 2 gave me an entry a stop and an exit all in perfect allignment with the fork..... http://www.screencast.com/t/RfgJ6BBlMLR

It then started getting a bit messy so I played around with the fork and found an Unmodified Schiff which seemed to define price as shown in Chart 3.

http://www.screencast.com/t/k8kOQI6Vz

I found it just after point (1). At point (2) I took a long with a stop below (1). Further long at (3) stop below (2). Exit at (4). I was then flat going into NFP and the spike down at (5) provided a further long with a stop below (3)......

Hope that's clear......

beeb
  • #4,126
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:29am Apr 4, 2011 8:29am
Haha, a big happy "family", i like that...i would've liked it even more if we could get out and talk trading business once a week at a coffe...that would've been nice
  • #4,127
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:30am Apr 4, 2011 8:30am
Here is a bullish pinbar from a some time ago in gold but it clearly illustrates things.

The body of the bar is small relative to the wick.
There is a long longer wick with the body at the other end.
The body closes inside the previous bar.

The body ought really to be above a significant level which would act as resistance to further bearish movement.

The pb sits after a series of bearish bars.

Price has been rejected from the 1050 level.
Price was also rejected by the 150 ema.

Often there will be some retracement of the pb and can act as a lower entry point if you are confident in the set-up.

Entry is classically taught at break of the upper end of the pb with the stop at the opposite end.

Price breaks the pb.
You enter but where now? This is the issue with a lot of teaching you don't know what to do now.

Price will usually get stuck at certain areas on the chart. Like significant levels - eg BRN's fib levels, previous support/resistance zones.

Price also gets stuck at lesser levels - the tops and bottoms of previous bars.
Price got stuck there before and so it seems can get stuck there again.

So look to the left of the pb.
The first area I would target is the bottom of the largish bullish bar where the first line is.
The second would be the 1100.0 level - nice BRN
The third would be top of the largish bearish bar. This is not plucked out of thin air because price did get stuck there - look further to the left see how often bars stop/start at that level. It is acting as a minor support/resistance level.
Now to manage the trade further you could go down to lower time frames but I think get the idea.
You get your stop to BE, get some of your money off the table with some profit and then creep up moving the stop behind strategic levels.

Now if you have moved your stop behind the first line on my chart and kept it there you would still be in the trade today!
Attached Image
  • #4,128
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:37am Apr 4, 2011 8:37am
Quoting beeb
OK well let me show you 240min GC via forks - real trades from recent days....

Chart 1 is what I drew when I saw quartile action - gave me a possible fork......
Nice one beeb.
I know sweet FA about this so I will certainly look through this stuff.
If it is working for you then I believe there is something in it.
  • #4,129
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:39am Apr 4, 2011 8:39am
Quoting musclemike
Haha, a big happy "family", i like that...i would've liked it even more if we could get out and talk trading business once a week at a coffe...that would've been nice
Ditto Ditto.
Have a trading room and then slag each other off face-to-face (LOL).
But really if I knew serious people round where I live I think something like that would be good. Exchange of ideas, trades....
  • #4,130
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:40am Apr 4, 2011 8:40am
Quoting musclemike
Haha, a big happy "family", i like that...i would've liked it even more if we could get out and talk trading business once a week at a coffe...that would've been nice
You are right!

Euroscum is the rich guy among us, he could buy the flight tickets and we all would drink a coffee in Geneva - I want to meet his brother's bank manager
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,131
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:41am Apr 4, 2011 8:41am
Quoting harvest3r
Hi. I'm back to the link you posted.

The author's approach to the 200 DMA as a kind of "magnet" is very "natural" and instinctive, I like it (I know beeb don't ). The odds that a correction will happen when the chart gets too far from the average is quite high and it can be a very good selling point.

I took all the silver daily quotes since 1992 + the correspondent 200 DMA, calculated the relation among them (just like the author's rSilver ratio) and created a chart out of it. Unfortunately I cannot create a picture and post here ....
Also he makes a correlation of silver latching onto the SPX ( silver is speculative and follows the market up with hot money), we had a dip when when there was a sell off recently and not the s&p is on the way back up, so is silver.

I guess one should look for signs of another high oil price induced selling spree in the news this week for any correction.
  • #4,132
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:44am Apr 4, 2011 8:44am
Quoting harvest3r
You are right!

Euroscum is the rich guy among us, he could buy the flight tickets and we all would drink a coffee in Geneva - I want to meet his brother's bank manager

My bro did some bad trades last week, lost 75k You are buying the tickets and coffee.
  • #4,133
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:46am Apr 4, 2011 8:46am
Quoting six gun
Here is a bullish pinbar from a some time ago in gold but it clearly illustrates things.

OK thanks

beeb
  • #4,134
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:47am Apr 4, 2011 8:47am
broadening bottom
short
sl 3865
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bb.png Size: 41 KB
  • #4,135
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:48am Apr 4, 2011 8:48am
Quoting six gun
Nice one beeb.
I know sweet FA about this so I will certainly look through this stuff.
If it is working for you then I believe there is something in it.

Well I've been trading professionally and privately for nearly thirty years and it is far and away the best method I've seen.....

beeb
  • #4,136
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:00am Apr 4, 2011 9:00am
Some how i get the feeling that the americans will reverse some of todays gains, just a hunch.
  • #4,137
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:01am Apr 4, 2011 9:01am
Howdy all,
Still hovering around this 1434 area....

Maybe an intraday swing for 10 bucks coming....

Let's see what the news is for today.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,138
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:02am Apr 4, 2011 9:02am
Quoting beeb
Well I've been trading professionally and privately for nearly thirty years

beeb

  • #4,139
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:03am Apr 4, 2011 9:03am
I'm long from 1418 thru 21.

If she doesn't pop I may take some profit. It's 1440 we really need to take with a vengeance and settle above.

THe damn euro is stuck.

Looking at the dip on AUD/USD contemplating long.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,140
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:07am Apr 4, 2011 9:07am
Quoting highlander2


arise.......lol
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