XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

gold in long term is up trend

You don't say Soros

why shouldn't I say Soros?!

It is called stating the bloody obvious.

O, Soros! You terrified me..

New high in silver, ratio fell to ~ 37.4

I was expecting something like 37.5 only at 1500 (gold) / 40 (silver). If the trend continues, we may see XAG at 42 * before gold reaches 1500. That's for the XAUXAG traders.

* as a rule-of-thumb, silver seems to be moving 2-3 times faster than gold on the intraday. If gold moves 4,5% up to 1500, we may expect silver to move at least 10%, from 38.x to 42. That's purely empirical, I must confess. It's not exaggerated, though - from Feb 28th lows to today, silver moved +45% against "only" +10% in gold.

or you could argue that it's time for a reversion to the norm and gold will start to claw back what it's lost.......
there was some talk of that on king world news this weekend if you heard it.........

beeb

@highlander2

My apologies for not looking back to your "highlander2's" username. No disrespect was intended.

@beeb
Highlander2 said the pinbar was in his favour and was reassuring.
I stated it had not closed above the 1.38 level which is a psychological level. I also pointed out the lower wick of the bar would ideally be longer to show clear price rejection of the lower levels and I would look to these if considering this a long entry point. He came back with his entry levels and he was already in the trade. The position is still moving in his favour and that is good for him.

What I said was all good technical analysis. This is a statement of the facts. I have no idea of highlander2's abilities or knowledge and in any case it makes no difference to a description of what is on the chart.

beeb I also acknowledged your fundamental knowledge. I actually put "respect". You stated you did not use pin bars. You made no mention of the situation of the body of the bar not being above a large whole number on the chart and that this level would be a psychological level where orders often stack up so creating a support/resistance level.

I offered to "point out the technicals where i can and we can learn from each other."
This was not a statement of arrogance but friendship. This does not imply you do not know anything about technical analysis, that you have inadequacies. It says this is what I can contribute and I am willing to do this where I can. It actually implies I do not know everything about technical analysis because I say "where I can".

As you say we use different systems.
I am more than happy to learn from others. There are very few of us cannot learn something more as we go along.
If you would not wish to have any discussion on any technical matters on the charts, I will respect that position.

However if someone says something that is incorrect on the chart I will say what I think. The market has no qualms about punishing us when we misinterpret something.

I certainly am not interested in trying to score points or look clever. This is quite pathetic really. Apart from XTrade I have no idea who anyone on this thread is, so trying to look clever before faceless usernames is pretty pointless.

I hope this explanation of my position meets with your standards of forum etiquette.

I look forward to reading your trading comments, I am sure I will learn from them.

np mate

you just didn't come across very well....appreciate your comments

beeb

No problem.
I agree I can come across like that.
That is my failing. Never take it personally.
I think I have a little understanding of your style, so if and when you have a dig at me I'll know its not serious. If in fact you think I'm talking s**t don't ever hesitate to point that out!

Actually I think that he didn't understand any of your posts

@eslami: hey, welcome! Nice to have someone from Iran here! (No, I'm not Iranian... I don't have any relation to Asia whatsoever.)

@beeb: yeah, that's a possibility too, even though I think that gold has a "healthier" behavior by moving slower. I tried to listen that MP3 but my internet connection is terrible (GPRS) and I could listen only the first 10 seconds before the puffering didn't work anymore. I will try again tonight.

Am I driving crazy or I really see 3 dojis in a row in the H1 silver chart?

Dont worry, im not bothered, we all have different opinions, about the market, and what constitutes a pin bar or what ever, you will have different rules than mine, doesnt mean either of us are wrong. In fact there is hardly any right or wrong when it come to trading.

As for the 38 level, yes i totally agree with you, these levels are important, but alot of the time I/we will need these to be broken any way if you are looking for a decent RR. i was already long from 37.11.

good trading

I will bee loking to sell more than half of my silver at 38.86, if we get there.

This is the daily chart for silver as it stands.

For those who are unfamiliar with Master or Mother Candles the horizontal lines on the chart might look odd.

The MC set-up is the Mother Candle bar followed by at least 4 inside bars.
Certainly on the longer time frame this indicates price is consolidating. The upper and lower limits of the Mother Candle acting a bit like support and resistance levels.
The idea is if price breaks the upper limit you go long and the lower you go short. This is too simple a rule and will catch you out plenty of times if taken blindly on this basis.
An upper limit break does have significance however.

It is trading with the trend.
To break the upper limit price must also break through the 38.000 BRN level. This level stopped silver's bullish progress in the past so cannot be ignored (24th March 2010).

If you look at the 1H chart see how price broke through 38.00 and then came back to retest that level before moving on higher. This confirms price is respecting this as a support level. The shorter the time frame the less significant these chart signs but it would be reassuring to those in a long position at the moment.

38.85 or so looks a good target and 38.70 looking an interesting level off an abcd....

beeb

Always good to get some profit in the bank. Move the stops up to B/E or higher and take the free ride with the rest.
If I had a £2/point long. Took half the money off the table and moved my stops up hiding behind resistance levels on the way up, that would be a free ride paying £1000 for every dollar silver climbed.

If you have a decent sized bank and take the longer term trades from the high probability positions you only need to be taking a few trades a month to be making some serious money.

XTrade mentioned he was in copper. I get the impression he has been long for some time. These are the trades to get into and stay in. Looks like it is maxed out at the moment but these are serious bank builders when you catch these runners. Beats sweating over 5 minute scalp trades any day of the week.

Check out my previous comments re Daily Stochastics and 150 MA for gold.
Copper on the Dailies is a bit in no man's land for me - not that I trade it....

beeb

Im generally in 4-10 trades per month, focusing on quality Setups mainly on the daily timeframe, and let the chart do the hard work.

Been trading a lot of gold and silver this year, and making the most of the bull trend, looking to buy pullbacks to the mean with pa to get longs on the go.

Yeah
XTrade indicated he was likely coming out of Cu and into Au.
Not sure what the reconstruction in Japan is going to do to commodities like lumber and copper but at the moment as you say copper is not doing much.

This is the definition of a Pinbar I prefer:

"The pin bar formation is actually a price reversal pattern consisting of three bars. The term “Pin Bar” is an abbreviation for the term “Pinocchio Bar”. Once familiarized with pin bar formation it is apparent from looking at any price chart just how profitable this pattern can be. Let’s go over exactly what a pin bar formation is and how you can take advantage of the pin bar setup in the context of the forex market.

What is a Pin Bar?
The actual pin bar itself is the middle bar of a three-bar formation that can be found on any stripped down “naked” bar chart or candlestick chart. We will cover the candlestick pin bar formation after our discussion of the pin bar formation using standard bar charts. Many people prefer the candlestick version over standard bar charts because it is generally regarded as a better visual representation of price action".

So today's daily bar would need to close to confirm Friday's pin.

When there are multiple variations of the same thing it makes a lot harder to be on the same page with TA wise.