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  • #4,041
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:44am Apr 1, 2011 9:44am
ah a REALLY technical level lol.........

thanks chum

beeb
  • #4,042
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:45am Apr 1, 2011 9:45am
Had set a limit to short Gold at 1440 in the morning.. It didnt hit..
However a pending Long order at 1415 executed in this rally downwards...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Now trading at 1422...
  • #4,043
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:50am Apr 1, 2011 9:50am
hi beeb,

1412 area was inline with the trendline if you pull a line on lows from Jan 28, Mar 15, Mar 17. I just got back from having friday night dinner, and I missed the banquet also
  • #4,044
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:53am Apr 1, 2011 9:53am
Quoting bLiTzCaT
hi beeb,

1412 area was inline with the trendline if you pull a line on lows from Jan 28, Mar 15, Mar 17. I just got back from having friday night dinner, and I missed the banquet also

if you noticed the forks i put up a few days ago (now removed) you will spot that it was $1 through the quartile that had already provided two good longs..........

beeb

i'm sorry but i don't post my trades in advance because i don't want people just following them blindly.........
  • #4,045
  • Apr 1, 2011 10:07am Apr 1, 2011 10:07am
you can see the buyers are absorbing the supply along the 1412 area all week as seen from the tailing action on the 4hr chart- pure price action. I am still long gold from 1363, and long silver from 37.11
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  • #4,046
  • Apr 1, 2011 10:11am Apr 1, 2011 10:11am
Quoting beeb
if you noticed the forks i put up a few days ago (now removed) you will spot that it was $1 through the quartile that had already provided two good longs..........

beeb

i'm sorry but i don't post my trades in advance because i don't want people just following them blindly.........
hi, i saw your forks few days ago. I tried to mimic the forks but I cannot. I read all explanation about how to setup andrew's fork, but still cannot create as good as yours. Maybe you have tips or specific technique for gold ?
  • #4,047
  • Apr 1, 2011 10:20am Apr 1, 2011 10:20am
Quoting bLiTzCaT
hi, i saw your forks few days ago. I tried to mimic the forks but I cannot. I read all explanation about how to setup andrew's fork, but still cannot create as good as yours. Maybe you have tips or specific technique for gold ?

get a good data and charting package such as esignal and ensign and practice hard......

there are no shortcuts....

beeb

imho mt4 just isn't good enough
  • #4,048
  • Apr 1, 2011 10:57am Apr 1, 2011 10:57am
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2609...he-gold-bubble

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are...-target-silver

so nobody should think I'm taking sides
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,049
  • Apr 1, 2011 11:57am Apr 1, 2011 11:57am
Quoting Euroscum
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2605...-the-fed-again

Here is the true risk in the next month. There is the possibilty of making a lot of money this month if Uncle Ben has to stop the crack.
Very good text, man! Really really very good.

It's in line with what I believe, even though I'm not 100% sure about the "no QE3". If the author would meet Peter Schiff, they would punch each other and bleed to death Peter would say, "the world is running out of fools to buy US bonds, only the Fed is buying and they will have to keep buying! There will be 20 QEs" and so on. That's my contention. Since I don't understand the bond market, I cannot take any personal conclusion out of the story.

April 23 seems to be the D-Day.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,050
  • Apr 1, 2011 12:25pm Apr 1, 2011 12:25pm
Funny articles...but i am stickin' to the facts...Gold is a "trading coin" same as other currencies, i am aware that at some point there will e a burst in gold, but not now when almost everything is against the paper money. People, banks, governments, corporations, they all need something "to put" their value in, and in this days i'm certain that eur/usd are not a safe haven, Mr Bernanke said a few weeks ago that the employment is the major revenue a gov. can have and the US, at least, will get at normal unemployment rates in 4-5yrs, Euro is still in the danger zone with Greece, Ireland, Spain, inflation, wars, disasters. All we have to do guys is to open our eyes and pay attention to everything around us and we will be fine, i think we, "humans from 2010" are a little bit more open minded and have a better judgement capabilities because of the information we posses this days, than "humans from 1980's".
  • #4,051
  • Apr 1, 2011 7:25pm Apr 1, 2011 7:25pm
Very good trading week with gold.

Next week, I will set some buy orders at 1414-1416 and take profit at 1425-30.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #4,052
  • Apr 2, 2011 6:05pm Apr 2, 2011 6:05pm
Any similarity?
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  • #4,053
  • Edited 10:11pm Apr 2, 2011 10:00pm | Edited 10:11pm
Quoting six gun
Any similarity?
No, because the PUBLIC is still unaware about Gold. The peak you're seeing in Gold is probably going to be "The First Sell Off" area on the second chart. So that puts us in the Awareness Phase with the Institutional Investors. We won't have a Mania until the general public is involved.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,054
  • Apr 2, 2011 10:43pm Apr 2, 2011 10:43pm
Older article from 2008, but interesting... Currently (close of Friday Apr. 01 2011) the Dow to Gold ratio is at about: 8.6

http://buying-gold.goldprice.org/200...e-in-1980.html

Quote
He follows this on with:
"Another useful measure to determine gold’s relative value can be made by comparing gold to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gold is overvalued when it takes only one ounce to buy the DJIA. For example in the 1930s, one ounce of gold at $35 bought the DJIA, and it did so again in 1980 when an ounce of gold was $850 and the DJIA was 800. Though this ratio has fallen from more than 40 ounces in 2000, it still takes 16 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA, meaning that gold continues to be a relatively good value while the DJIA...
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,055
  • Apr 2, 2011 11:01pm Apr 2, 2011 11:01pm
Here is an overlay comparing the current bull market to the old bull market in Gold. Chart was last updated in 2007, but gold price reflects 2006. This chart makes the case for Gold to look pretty top heavy or in bubble, if history repeats we maybe see getting close to the peak... Hmm... Something to think about.

EDIT: the chart is a little vague, so it probably be better to make ones own. Anyone have access to historical data for making an overlay chart?

.
Attached Image
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,056
  • Edited 4:21am Apr 3, 2011 2:28am | Edited 4:21am
Fundamentals imply gold is not in a bubble....

It is a miniscule part of most institutional investment portfolios....

For a trader it doesn't matter which way a market moves. Most people here give themselves the epithet "trader", therefore it doesn't matter if it is in a bubble or not.

It matters if it is in a bubble for investors only. They should probably not be thinking of buying at this level - I know i keep hammering on about it, but look at two these indicators since beginning of 2009 :

1. 150 day Simple Moving Average.
2. 60,3,3 Stochastics.

If you can't see more appropriate buy levels from those, you need to wonder why.......

beeb
  • #4,057
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:02am Apr 3, 2011 5:02am
I did not say anything about the price of Gold.

This is the recent SILVER chart I was comparing to the bubble cycle. It isn't the long term gold trend.

Gold has been climbing and climbing for years and years.
I don't see gold bubbling over at the moment. If it suddenly shot up to $5000 then fair enough.

We are going long and short on these commodities. Our positions can change in a few seconds.

What I am pointing out is the very rapid rise in silver.

If the general public really got it in their heads to buy silver, which is something they could really afford to buy into, then the price of silver would become seriously inflated.
If we look back down the centuries silver in today's terms was over $800 in the 1400's.

What I am saying is I see on the chart a very rapid short term rise in silver after years of lower levels. It has been a one way bet for months now. As soon as enough people think something is a one way bet we are in a bubble.
  • #4,058
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:15am Apr 3, 2011 5:15am
OK I misunderstood you - apologies....

If you are implying that we should expect silver to follow the path of your second chart and fall beneath the mean to the $10 to $15 dollar range, I think you are very wrong.

If you are saying that silver is overheated at the moment and could do with some time closer to the 200MA - you may be right.

However a trend is a trend until it changes and keeping an eye on shorter timeframes will lead to an appreciation of longer timeframes....

beeb
  • #4,059
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:17am Apr 3, 2011 5:17am
Quoting six gun
I did not say anything about the price of Gold.

This is the recent SILVER chart I was comparing to the bubble cycle. It isn't the long term gold trend.

What I am saying is I see on the chart a very rapid short term rise in silver after years of lower levels. It has been a one way bet for months now. As soon as enough people think something is a one way bet we are in a bubble.
Okay, just replace gold with silver from my previous post, my bad. I had gold on my mind when I replied. Silver still has a ways to go before it reaches it nominal high of $50, I'm not sure what the inflation adjusted price would be.

Usually when something goes parabolic it corrects, I agree with you there, but I'd hardly call that a bubble. I'd say Silver has had a big run up or say it has gotten a little over extended or needs to correct, but I'd wouldn't say it's a bubble.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,060
  • Apr 3, 2011 5:42am Apr 3, 2011 5:42am
Quoting LasVahGoose
Okay, just replace gold with silver from my previous post, my bad. I had gold on my mind when I replied. Silver still has a ways to go before it reaches it nominal high of $50, I'm not sure what the inflation adjusted price would be.

Usually when something goes parabolic it corrects, I agree with you there, but I'd hardly call that a bubble. I'd say Silver has had a big run up or say it has gotten a little over extended or needs to correct, but I'd wouldn't say it's a bubble.
Clearly silver is unlikely to get dumped that hard as to go down that low (but anything can happen). I have lived through several bubbles. In all of them price was a one way bet no-one believed was coming down but when it did there was a sharp (over)correction.

Whenever I see one way traffic up over a relatively short time I think bubble. Longer term I only see the metals going up and today's prices looking cheap, but that does not stop me seeing an investor's bubble with silver.
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