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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #4,001
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:29pm Mar 31, 2011 4:29pm
Bit too early to tel Riko,

Could be a line could not.

What I am observing is that from the last high the correction was only appx 35 USD. Thus I deduce there were resting shorts around this level, as well as some profit taking or "load lightening" for end of month and end of quarter to show profit on the big boys books for their customers. As Beeb has kindly mentioned to everyone.

Yet, 35 is not much of a correction and we have a nice rounded curve coming up into record high levels again.

I personally will be looking for a new High. Friday is not the best day to make analysis, yet it is the first of the month...

Looking for 1505 and 1530 next.

I would only short well below 1380 for a multi day position. Haven't been scalping much lately, even so I trade in the way of the trend which is up. So the majority of the scalps would be longs anyway.

Now with GBP/USD one day it's up 100 pips the next day it's down 100.
Until it has a 300 pip break it's not bad for swing trading if you get in at the right level.

THe USD has tried to stage somewhat of a reversal last week, yet it seems to be fizzling out into mere correction.

Quoting riko2705
hi xtrade got any comment ?
thank you.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,002
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:31pm Mar 31, 2011 4:31pm
Good points. May make for some sparks tonight and a wacky Friday as usual.


Quoting beeb
Folks I don't know if you're getting this - today is end of quarter and rollover and tomorrow is NFP....This may be a time to just step aside and let the market go through it's contortions without you...

Remember that there is always another trade out there.....

beeb
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,003
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:09pm Mar 31, 2011 5:09pm
usually a good read if you can ignore the hyperbole....

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

beeb
  • #4,004
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:11pm Mar 31, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting XTrade
Bit too early to tel Riko,

Could be a line could not.

What I am observing is that from the last high the correction was only appx 35 USD....
thank you xtrade
check au/usd , there was a bearish engulfing on top (4h)
good trading...
  • #4,005
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:27pm Mar 31, 2011 5:27pm
@Euroscum
Even if I am a crackpot I agree with some of what you say.
However it does not cost nothing to mine silver, it is perhaps $10/oz.
The low value of silver has meant that it was not worth mining purely for silver and supplies have relied on silver as a by product of other metal mining. From my reading there has been a draw down on silver stocks and the price was manipulated.

Silver is a massively important industrial metal and this will ultimately determine its price.
It appears to have broken free of the long term low valuation.

The fiat currencies are shot to bits. Virtually all the industrial nation's currencies are shot. Today the Irish banks got the stress test results and they will have to draw on the contingency the ECB put in place. Portugal refused to take the sensible route. There is trouble building up for the Euro. The USD is a basket case if ever there were one. Even Japan is piled high with massive debt.

Where I totally agree with you is we are in a silver bubble. It has gone up too far too fast especially in recent weeks. This is not to say silver is over priced but whenever price moves up with the velocity it has there is virtually always a correction. That correction could well be swift and brutal.

Lets hope it comes. I am truly looking forward to this. I am going to run my alarms under price so when it comes my platform will text me and I will be at the ready.
  • #4,006
  • Edited 9:29pm Mar 31, 2011 9:03pm | Edited 9:29pm
I would say that commodities, including gold and silver are bubbling because they are driven by speculations and also most importantly by the growing industries in developing countries. I live in Indonesia, Asia and I do see a lot of massive development taken place everywhere around Asia, including my country.

My dad alone put some of his money to buy 10 kg of gold when gold is at around $ 600 / troy ounce. He is still holding it now as he believe the commodities are going up.

We also do stock cotton until next year 2011 as my dad's business is a garment manufacturer in Indonesia and he believes that the cotton price will keep going up no matter what. (cotton price has increase 89% over the last year).

The most important thing that i can correlate from my dad's business to the commodities industry is that: there are a huge influx of chinese businessman in Indonesia trying to buy cotton. The reason they come to Indonesia: There are looking for new source of cotton as there are shortage of cotton material and the Chinese keep piling those commodities. (Is it because they knew that the end of the world is coming?)

India has foreseen this commodities shortage and has done protectionnism to not allow huge amount of cotton material to be exported.

However, I would say that cotton is not directly correlated to gold and Im just giving my 2 cents.

I adviced my dad to shed some of his gold holdings by a third when gold reach 1500.

Euroscum, may I know what is your brother strategy for his physical gold? At what level is he going to shed some gold?
  • #4,007
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:01am Apr 1, 2011 1:01am
Quoting beeb
usually a good read if you can ignore the hyperbole....

http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

beeb
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2605...-the-fed-again

Here is the true risk in the next month. There is the possibilty of making a lot of money this month if Uncle Ben has to stop the crack.
  • #4,008
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:11am Apr 1, 2011 1:11am
Quoting llrickkll

Euroscum, may I know what is your brother strategy for his physical gold? At what level is he going to shed some gold?
Never, he thinks it is going to be like Mad Max and he is going to be king of the hill with his shiny bars.

His banker said, man if that happens I will be down in the vault stealing your bars anyway
  • #4,009
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:16am Apr 1, 2011 1:16am
can gold retest 20s today. is that a possibility.
  • #4,010
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:29am Apr 1, 2011 1:29am
Quoting Nomi1
can gold retest 20s today. is that a possibility.

nomi as stated many times before it's NFP today and anything is possible. historically it's not a good day to trade if you are not "au fait" with PM's as there tend to be wild swings and often takedown attempts......

beeb
  • #4,011
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:38am Apr 1, 2011 1:38am
great thread - already bookmarked

I want to ask your guys advice on the best way to trade silver.

I've just opened an Oanda account to trade. Do you guys trade with lots with a stop loss? or do you just let the silver ride as you know most likely it's just going up? Is it ok using a margin account (50:1) ?

advice very much appreciated
  • #4,012
  • Edited 2:27am Apr 1, 2011 2:09am | Edited 2:27am
welcome aboard stevy

imo you should NEVER, EVER trade any vehicle without a stop....silver is a very wild ride so that especially holds true for it. you could perhaps not use a stop if you are investing rather than trading but i would not dream of doing so...

two bits of advice:

1. get to know your market before putting money to work (maybe trial with a dummy account)
2. know your objectives and risk tolerances and either invest or trade accordingly and be very wary of using margin until you are comfortable with what you are doing....

beeb
  • #4,013
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:15am Apr 1, 2011 2:15am
Hi everyone! Just join this forum, and i hope I can learn alot from here. Can gold break 1447 today?
  • #4,014
  • Edited 2:45am Apr 1, 2011 2:34am | Edited 2:45am
thanks beeb!

yeah i totally agree not trading without a stop - but isn't silver a different beast now ?

For example:

- if i have $4000 dollars
- buy 0.05 lots of silver ($1 rise in silver would be 250 dollar profit).
- silver at $37 would have to go down to $21 dollars for me to loose my account. (i don't think 2008 is going to repeat)
- i sell every $150 - $250 profit and then buy again on a low
- i just assume silver is going well up.

Anyone like this idea or do you agree with Beep that i should have a stop loss?

I'm also wondering if you don't mind sharing what trading methods you're using for silver ? (any pointers)
  • #4,015
  • Apr 1, 2011 2:38am Apr 1, 2011 2:38am
Quoting Sp3ctre
Hi everyone! Just join this forum, and i hope I can learn alot from here. Can gold break 1447 today?
welcome

first lesson - read before you type - see message #4134

beeb
  • #4,016
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:18am Apr 1, 2011 3:18am
Quoting stevy
thanks beeb!

yeah i totally agree not trading without a stop - but isn't silver a different beast now ?

For example:...

stevy - the best way to find trading methods is to spend a few hours going back over past pages - people probably would prefer that to having to repeat things.....
having done the above i suggest that you run a dummy account until you are happy with your progress.
silver is very unruly and has a habit of doing precisely what you don't expect. remember that the market can be "wrong" longer than you can stay solvent.....

beeb
  • #4,017
  • Apr 1, 2011 3:23am Apr 1, 2011 3:23am
Quoting stevy
thanks beeb!

yeah i totally agree not trading without a stop - but isn't silver a different beast now ?

For example:...
How long have you been trading?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #4,018
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:02am Apr 1, 2011 4:02am
Quoting stevy
great thread - already bookmarked

I want to ask your guys advice on the best way to trade silver.

I've just opened an Oanda account to trade. Do you guys trade with lots with a stop loss? or do you just let the silver ride as you know most likely it's just going up? Is it ok using a margin account (50:1) ?

advice very much appreciated
Why don't you start with gold? Silver is too wild and can be very dangerous, especially if you are just starting your trade career.

If you checked the last pages, you can see the discussion about the trend in silver. A huge correction could happen any time. To be caught in such correction with long positions could mean that your account will be burned big time! But that's just me... It's your decision to take the risk.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,019
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:12am Apr 1, 2011 4:12am
Quoting stevy
thanks beeb!

yeah i totally agree not trading without a stop - but isn't silver a different beast now ?

For example:

- if i have $4000 dollars
- buy 0.05 lots of silver ($1 rise in silver would be 250 dollar profit).
- silver at $37 would have to go down to $21 dollars for me to loose my account. (i don't think 2008 is going to repeat)
- i sell every $150 - $250 profit and then buy again on a low
- i just assume silver is going well up.

Anyone like this idea or do you agree with Beep that i should have a stop loss?

I'm also wondering...
You must control risk, if its not a stoploss you must define a level where you will manually exit.

You must remember that anything can happen at any time, and you should be prepared for this at all times with strict money management rules.

We dont know the future so its impossible to say where it will go. $21 may seem far enough away at the moment, but theres nothing to say it wont be there in the future. even if it didnt go all the way to 21 if it goes to 29 your still losing half your account. simply placing a trade and then waiting for it to go into a profit will work for a time perhaps, but eventually it will go against you and it will never come back.

There is one golden rule in trading which a lot of people seem to forget about, and it is-

"No one trade should ever have the ability to cause serious damage to your account"



if you follow this you will have a much better chance of success, protect your trading capital with your life!

  • #4,020
  • Apr 1, 2011 4:37am Apr 1, 2011 4:37am
Just drifting now until the jobs report.
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