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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #3,981
  • Mar 31, 2011 8:54am Mar 31, 2011 8:54am
Quoting musclemike
Hmmm...why do i live with the impression that i am surrounded by FED'd employees (was a joke )...when the investment manager of Deutsche Bank says that 1400 is not a high price for gold to buy (i assume it's the same with silver), when everything points out to world economic instability (wars, disasters, QE's, unemployment, commodity prices (oil, grains, etc) gowing up etc etc) it's pretty unsafe to say that silver/gold will not be going up forever, that may be (because even US/EUR has to rally sometimes too ) but for now (a long time from...
Gold is the true safe haven, silver is just a speculative metal. Silver is too bulky to run away with when the shit hits the fan.

Look at all commodities now, coco beans, wheat, copper whatever, they are no safe haven it is just a bunch of people with a computer screen pushing it higher.
  • #3,982
  • Mar 31, 2011 8:58am Mar 31, 2011 8:58am
Quoting beeb
not the EMA - the Simple Moving Average - check how gold has bounced from the 150 SMA since early 2009....
For me, they are all the same hahahahaha

-- * --

Back to silver: I don't pretend to defend Euroscum, but he is not saying that without reason. Historically there were many corrections, big ones. One may say: "now it's different, the fundamentals speak for silver", but the term "now it's different" has be to be used very carefully!

There is all this JPMorgue story and it seems that they are not able, at the moment, to damp the rally. Does it mean that there is no upper limit? No. What happens if there is no QE3? Will the price stabilize or fall? Questions, questions...

Can silver go up to $50 without any correction whatsoever? Yes, it can . Even higher. But nobody should be scared and cry in despair if silver falls by $10 or $20. For TRADERS, it shouldn't matter anyway. For INVESTORS, it would be a new chance for physical purchase.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,983
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:10am Mar 31, 2011 9:10am
Quoting harvest3r
For me, they are all the same hahahahaha

well maybe you should look again



beeb
  • #3,984
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:14am Mar 31, 2011 9:14am
Quoting harvest3r
For me, they are all the same hahahahaha

-- * --

Back to silver: I don't pretend to defend Euroscum, but he is not saying that without reason. Historically there were many corrections, big ones. One may say: "now it's different, the fundamentals speak for silver", but the term "now it's different" has be to be used very carefully!

There is all this JPMorgue story and it seems that they are not able, at the moment, to damp the rally. Does it mean that there is no upper limit? No. What happens if there is no QE3? Will the price stabilize...
I trade short term , positions open usually for minutes, hours or a few days but I am interested in what drives stuff higher or lower. I enjoy reading articles, usually on weekends, and I have a few analysts I like to listen to.

I like the conspiracy stories too about JPM, like one of the biggest banks in the world is going to be that dumb.
  • #3,985
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:43am Mar 31, 2011 9:43am
It has been a while since I posted on here.
Silver has appreciated significantly over the last few months. The price was rigged and appears to have broken free of this.

Historically the price of silver has been linked to gold. For why? Because both were used as coinage and had real money value.

The world has moved on since then. The amount of silver in the world is getting less and less and less. It is running out. This is not the case for gold which just sits there in vaults gathering dust. Clearly there will come a point when it is worth mining silver in earnest but in the past it was a loss maker to mine silver, the price was far too low.

Silver is an industrial metal. Forget all about the historical context of silver and money. We are in an electronic age and the best conductor of electricity is silver. It is used in many processes and for many products. Demand is high and outstrips supply. When the stock piles of silver run out and they will do, there better be a lot of silver mines or else the price will sky rocket. The price will not be driven by the price of gold but because silver is an industrial metal we need in the modern age.
  • #3,986
  • Mar 31, 2011 9:57am Mar 31, 2011 9:57am
Quoting six gun
It has been a while since I posted on here.
Silver has appreciated significantly over the last few months. The price was rigged and appears to have broken free of this.

Historically the price of silver has been linked to gold. For why? Because both were used as coinage and had real money value.

The world has moved on since then. The amount of silver in the world is getting less and less and less. It is running out. This is not the case for gold which just sits there in vaults gathering dust. Clearly there will come a point when it is worth mining...

Sorry man, but you have been reading those conspiracy sites. Silver costs nothing to dig out of the ground. These are just bullshit reasons to get more people to buy physical.

I notice whenever someone posts something even contrary to what you crackpots believe that you guys come out of the woodwork. There are just too many people being taken in by this JPM bullshit scam. You will be sorry when those blocks of silver sitting in your garage are worth nothing.

It is pure and simple speculation, as mentioned earlier there is all sort of bullshit stories going around about all commodities why they are going to the moon, they are just following the market up.
  • #3,987
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:16am Mar 31, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Euroscum
Sorry man, but you have been reading those conspiracy sites. Silver costs nothing to dig out of the ground. These are just bullshit reasons to get more people to buy physical.

I notice whenever someone posts something even contrary to what you crackpots believe that you guys come out of the woodwork. There are just too many people being taken in by this JPM bullshit scam. You will be sorry when those blocks of silver sitting in your garage are worth nothing.

It is pure and simple speculation, as mentioned earlier there is all sort of bullshit...
Euroscum, you are a bit nervous. Don't get physical

I read somewhere (maybe in this thread) that the dig costs are $4 per oz. That's very low now, but considering the production overheads, this was not true when the market price was close to $10.

Nevertheless, I would be very happy to have a garage, especially if full of those worthless blocks of silver...


Quoting Euroscum
I trade short term , positions open usually for minutes, hours or a few days but I am interested in what drives stuff higher or lower. I enjoy reading articles, usually on weekends, and I have a few analysts I like to listen to.
Are we twin brothers?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,988
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:13am Mar 31, 2011 11:13am
Gold surprisingly rallied to attack 1440, and interestingly AG didn't follow up and is currently consolidated around 37.6. Let's see what will happen before eod.
  • #3,989
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:39am Mar 31, 2011 11:39am
Rejections for the downside on the last 3 candles on the 1H chart...?
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  • #3,990
  • Mar 31, 2011 11:39am Mar 31, 2011 11:39am
Quoting harvest3r
Euroscum, you are a bit nervous. Don't get physical

I read somewhere (maybe in this thread) that the dig costs are $4 per oz. That's very low now, but considering the production overheads, this was not true when the market price was close to $10.

Nevertheless, I would be very happy to have a garage, especially if full of those worthless blocks of silver...




Are we twin brothers?
If you could get something for $4 and sell it on ebay for $38 I do not think your business would last too long before your competitors found out.

Silver is in a bubble for sure. All silver miners will be cranking it out full speed at these prices, full power 24 hours. Sooner or later it is going to pop, like it has multiple times in the past. I will post this one on silver toppings again.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26865.html
  • #3,991
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:31pm Mar 31, 2011 12:31pm
While you are buying physical, how about storing some wheat, soy beans and corn in your garages too.

Notice any correlation here? Oh no, it must be the evil JPM manipulating the prices of these commodities. Damn them and their evil ways < euroscum shakes his fist in the air>

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/XC/M

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZO/M

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZS/M

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ZW/M

I think this is why the FED say inflation like this is temporary because they know it is going to end just like it did in 2008.
  • #3,992
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:13pm Mar 31, 2011 2:13pm
You predict a BEARISH XAGUSD until May 2011?

Lol, man, have you even looked at the Daily SILVER Chart? Check it out again.

I have been hearing since april 2010, that silver and gold was going to fall, and it kept reaching new highs each month.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #3,993
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:17pm Mar 31, 2011 2:17pm
Whats important here is to consistently add to the stack.

10 oz bars I bought in 2008 for a buck 50 or 140 for some are now retailing at
400 a bar. That is a profit on each 10 oz bar right now of 250 bucks in 2 years.

Show me a stock that has given you a return of 250 liquid on 10 shares in the past 2 years.

In any case as much as it might hurt to buy a 10 OZER for 400 it will hurt more and you will kick yourself in the a$$ when that same bar is retailing for 1k!! That would be $100 per ozt SILVER. and a $600 PROFIT on each bar.

So... Yes we are vulnerable to correction at record highs. But what is happening???? Each time we dip after a new high we just make another new high. DEMAND!

And no the majority of the general public is not aware of how easy it is to obtain physical metals. But you can bet your a$$ if and when they find out,
that $100 mark will come faster, with a hefty premium or waiting list behind it.

The US mint by law is supposed to make enough silver eagles each year to meet market demands. I have read several times they have not made the quota and had to stop production... (Could be a bit of a scam in there somewhere) but the eagles aren't vanishing into thin air. they are getting snatched up by the tube.

I have noticed something even more interesting. Take a look at this pic.
below, these bars are fractional silver from the 80's rush, when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market

I have to add the pic mine are Johnson Matthey 5 gram bars.

Here are some new ones From Pan AM. I don't want to post the link cause it's to a store. But they are from NWT Mint
https://store.nwtmint.com/images/products/2983__big.jpg




Quoting harvest3r
You are right. It's time to invest in physical metal, even if it seems to be expensive. It can get much worse in the future.

I was expecting silver to fall a little bit but, as I already said some weeks ago, it's difficult to see a sign of any big fall in the short term. With the "risk" of even bigger rallies, I decided to buy some physical silver, even though the current price is quite high. In August 2010 my first silver coin cost EUR 14.60. Now, 7 months later, it's virtually impossible to find anything by less than EUR 29 (!!!).

Nevertheless,...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,994
  • Edited 2:57pm Mar 31, 2011 2:44pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting XTrade
Whats important here is to consistently add to the stack.

10 oz bars I bought in 2008 for a buck 50 or 140 for some are now retailing at
400 a bar. That is a profit on each 10 oz bar right now of 250 bucks in 2 years.

Show me a stock that has given you a return of 250 liquid on 10 shares in the past 2 years.

In any case as much as it might hurt to buy a 10 OZER for 400 it will hurt more and you will kick yourself in the a$$ when that same bar is retailing for 1k!! That would be $100 per ozt SILVER. and a $600 PROFIT on each bar.

So......
Think I will diversify into pork bellies and wheat bushels

This is the common misconception that it fiat currencies causing the price of commodities to rise. Look at what happened to silver in the crash of 2008, was it a safe haven? No, it dropped like a stone.

Silver and all the other links I posted earlier, some have also doubled BTW have been following the market up, it is not because of the reasons most think, it is speculative.

In 2008 I was considering buying farm land in the Czech Republic where I live 1) because I was scared of my lifes savings and bank runs 2) because there were a load of BS stories being run about not enough food to feed the world.
Oil hit $147 people were stealing it left right and centre, wheat went to 1250 and the Mexicans were complaining they could not afford to make their tortillas. The next thing we knew they all came crashing back down, which is healthy.

I know I am a bit of a lone voice on here but it is complete an utter shite that this can go on without a major correction. Commods are following the SPX, the party is on as long as that baby stays in the air, but when it falls so will your dreams of to the moon silver.
  • #3,995
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:18pm Mar 31, 2011 3:18pm
A common misconception is that commodities "follow" or have direct correlation to anything other than maybe being in the same group.

Each commodity has it's own benefits, draw-downs and differences.

Gold is different than silver in many aspects. Yes they follow eachother and they also de-correlate.

That's like me saying Gold follows the Euro and when the Euro tanks again so will gold. What happened the last time the Euro tanked? Gold rose.

Just the same as it did when the dollar was rallying, several times they moved in tandem.

I don't base trading gold or silver for that matter, on direct correlations to anything.

Yes we will correct, that is the nature of the market. Nothing new there.
The key is where to get in and out, not being greedy and managing risk.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,996
  • Edited 3:37pm Mar 31, 2011 3:26pm | Edited 3:37pm
Not everyone that trades Futures is a speculator. The basis of the market was to keep prices in line for seasons that may destroy or overproduce grain and crops in the midwest. IE CHICAGO where the futures exchange started.

What point are you trying to make? That commodities go up and down together? So do the stock markets.

Why don't I buy barrels of oil and store them in my garage? Because it's not PRUDENT. If it was I would.

http://freshnewsdaily.files.wordpres...3crude-oil.jpg
http://www.bullionvault.com/help/ima...hite_small.jpg


Gold although it is a commodity plays a worldwide role as a store of value.
Pork bellies don't. Nor am I a farmer looking to lock in a price for the next winter season.


I am a speculator. So if the market tanks what do you want people to do cry?

No you go short. It's not rocket science.

BTW: If you don't think JPM and HSBC manipulate prices I don't know what to tell you.
Somewhere someone went wrong and things are changing especially in the silver market, hence the price.

Quoting Euroscum
While you are buying physical, how about storing some wheat, soy beans and corn in your garages too.

Notice any correlation here? Oh no, it must be the evil JPM manipulating the prices of these commodities. Damn them and their evil ways < euroscum shakes his fist in the air>


I think this is why the FED say...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,997
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:42pm Mar 31, 2011 3:42pm
hi xtrade got any comment ?
thank you.
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  • #3,998
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:04pm Mar 31, 2011 4:04pm
Hey X trade, I concede I could be wrong, I keep an open mind when I see the metals still rising. We both day trade/swing trade from what I see so on that side it does not matter.

The only difference is you buy physical and believe the end of the world is coming, I am fairly optimistic that it will all work out.

My brother has a load of gold in a vault in Switzerland he bought at 1100, I call him Goldfinger We both love the metals, I do not believe gold is over valued because it costs a lot to dig out of the ground, plus its historic value. You know what I think about silver and other commodities, it will be interesting to see who is right.

As for the JPM manipulation, it could be but they are not dumb enough to get caught with their pants that far down.
  • #3,999
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:05pm Mar 31, 2011 4:05pm
Folks I don't know if you're getting this - today is end of quarter and rollover and tomorrow is NFP....This may be a time to just step aside and let the market go through it's contortions without you...

Remember that there is always another trade out there.....

beeb
  • #4,000
  • Mar 31, 2011 4:11pm Mar 31, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting beeb
Folks I don't know if you're getting this - today is end of quarter and rollover and tomorrow is NFP....This may be a time to just step aside and let the market go through it's contortions without you...

Remember that there is always another trade out there.....

beeb
good advice,thank you.
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