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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #3,501
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:22am Mar 13, 2011 1:22am
Below 25.

But not really this may very well be the new way silver trades with 2 and 3 dollar days.... We just don't know.


The massive move in silver has taken part in Golds ranging and not exploding further. Money is flowing into silver just as it has been gold. At that smart money. Silver has a long way to go, this is only the mere beginning. IMO

Quoting LasVahGoose
I would have liked to seen the bearish bar with a lower close, but it maybe good enough to trade. What do you consider a major bear move?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,502
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:25am Mar 13, 2011 1:25am
Quoting Orbital
Yes well... on a long enough timeframe everything corrects. The trick is to understand where Supply exceeds Demand.

Im not really liking that article alltomuch or reading alltomuch into it. Saying that silver is likely to correct is like sitting in a dark room with no windows stating: The sun is eventually going to come up.

Its an obvious but useless fact if you see what im pointing at

Either way, im hoping for next weeks correction, Yen will cause major discorrelations and upsets in some of the trading pairs. Im moving to safer scalping...
Actually not like sitting in a dark room waiting for the sun to come up, it is more like sitting in a dark room with a watch with a history of sun rise times.

He has studied all previous silver tops defined by the 200mda. Previous high was something like 1.4, now it is new territory at over 1.5. Silver is following the stock market up and every time it corrects, and it does correct always and violently at that.

When looking for articles on google now on PM now it pisses me off I can only find things from someone called coin week, gold blog, silver guy or whatever. All talking the market up calling for 2000$ gold and 100$ silver, they all have an agenda. It is really unbalanced out there, I like Adam Hamilton, he trades PM's and has a more rational view than most.
  • #3,503
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:55am Mar 13, 2011 1:55am
Gold has separated itself from being simply dollar up gold down. We all should know this by now from the actions of recent.
Silver is starting to decouple and form it's own market. It seems to me the suppressors may have gotten long or at least squeezed out.

You think a trader at JPM letting a naked short at 19 rising to 35 is going to have a job the next day?

Thus, I personally do not take much heed in comparing it to the DOW or S&P, unless I am looking at how much better of an investment it has been over the years.

I don't care too much about adjusting for inflation either. If you were lucky enough to buy multiple PHYSICAL ounces of Gold at $200 or $400 and still hold them today you are doing very well. It's called PURCHASING POWER.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,504
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:02am Mar 13, 2011 3:02am
Personally I would like to see a correction in silver. Gold no.

The correction in silver will only be a physical buy opportunity.
Then we are likely to see the price rise again.

I don't see it passing $22.--
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,505
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:19am Mar 13, 2011 3:19am
If you take pure production costs gold is about 500-600 $ per ounce ( you need to crush lots more rock)

Silver is 5 USD.

In that sense gold is very cheap less than 3* production cost, compared to silver @ 7* production cost.
  • #3,506
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:28am Mar 13, 2011 3:28am
Not sure where you are getting these figures from but they are not accurate.

Quoting Euroscum
If you take pure production costs gold is about 500-600 $ per ounce ( you need to crush lots more rock)

Silver is 5 USD.

In that sense gold is very cheap less than 3* production cost, compared to silver @ 7* production cost.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,507
  • Edited 3:57am Mar 13, 2011 3:42am | Edited 3:57am
Plenty of good comments here.....

Nassim Taleb wrote Black Swan about events such as those in Japan when normality both in life and markets goes out the window. Very difficult to predict movements and I have to admit to feeling "cheap" trying to do so when others are suffering...

Silver is hideously difficult to trade IMO - which is why I invest in it rather than try to trade it (other than for quick scalps). It's gold's unruly younger brother.....It does look very overbought but that doesn't mean it won't go higher - I'm not touching it. FWIW I am anticipating support in the area of 31.50 and just below 27.00 - though I reserve the right to change these levels at a moments notice lol......

Gold has been far more controlled in it's movements and has not diverged so far from it's Moving Averages. Is the correction over? Here's my checklist for the Dailies:

Stochastics - 14,3,3 triggered down through 80 and still falling - 60,3,3 holding in overbought territory.
RSI - unwinding from overbought though yesterday's action made it turn up
MACD - overbought and falling
Moving Averages - Rising fast and price is still not too stretched (unlike silver)
Price - Reasonably impulsive move up to and just through 1425 (as intimated in post #3574) but has not held above the 1420 area - which would have made me more bullish

So summing up - I'm much more bullish about gold for the next few days than I was on Thursday. Am very aware of Japan events' ability to throw things off course. It's not a time to go "all in" either long or short but I feel some of the downward pressure has eased. Will be trading short term charts for scalps until we see a decent move to the downside or until we get a series of higher closes above resistance-turned-support.

Now, more than ever, USE STOPS - it's better to take a small loss rather than to hang on hoping that the market will turn. The market can remain "wrong" longer than you can remain solvent lol

As to the number of opinionated people posting here - unless they support their views with reasoned arguments their assertions are as useful as a chocolate teapot and I think they should continue to be called out for it.....

Good weekend to all

beeb

PS Please don't view my thoughts as "advice" they are mine and apply to me and could seriously damage your wealth
  • #3,508
  • Edited 1:40pm Mar 13, 2011 6:26am | Edited 1:40pm
And another thing.....

Let's try and put this bullish/bearish debate to bed - it's getting boring..

Being a trader is all very glamorous (allegedly) but it is extremely difficult to make a consistent living. If you don't know what you are doing or (more dangerously) think you know what you are doing, but don't, you will in all probability lose your money....

You can be bullish and bearish of the same vehicle on different timescales.

You can trade in and out of the vehicle taking advantage of peaks and troughs while maintaining your overall bullish or bearish stance. You just have to be aware of what you are doing.

If you buy or sell something and just leave it you are not a trader (dependent on timescale), you are an investor. If you are an investor you should not be worrying about daily or weekly fluctuations.

Timescale is important and this is an extreme example - here are a couple of 1 minute GC charts - wider and closer. If you can't see trades and stops in retrospect off this you will certainly not be able to do so in real time and IMO should not even think about calling yourself a trader

Only my thoughts - I don't mean to be rude to anyone

beeb
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gc1.jpg Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gc1-2.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #3,509
  • Mar 13, 2011 9:14am Mar 13, 2011 9:14am
Gold and Silver producers sell forward a certain percent of their production at any given time.

So where the market price is at presently or will be at in the future is guess work to estimate the average price they obtain and therefore gauging a profit margin spurious.
  • #3,510
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:54pm Mar 13, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting beeb
am seeing some GC support in the 1418-20 area from the 20min chart I have been posting. also some in that area from 240min and Daily. Next level looks to me to be around 1405....If we approach those levels will look to see how we react....


beeb
Hi beeb, can you share with me what method are you using for trading gold. I've been trying to contact you via PM but since I'm still new/junior I couldn't do it. Currently I'm using moving averages and bollinger bands on my trading system but it ain't working so well
  • #3,511
  • Edited 3:36pm Mar 13, 2011 3:05pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting lilpip
I didnt think id be begging her to come back to 33.61 and 32.47 in the first full week of march.
bias is up from pivot, and will be watching how $36.50-$37.00 for possible scalp.
silver
march monthly
37.03
32.47
27.91
weekly
36.47
33.61
30.75
the market reminded us about patience this week as we got our scalp as she turned around at fri. daily lows 34.12 area and golds weekly pivot @ 1407 area and daily lows 1405 area.
this week should be interesting as (monthly high area has been achieved at 37.05 area) and prepare for next quarters support, bias is with trend up from 34.77 and watching how daily 34.31 trend guide area responds.
monthly close above 34.64 and I believe were off to 51.00 .
weekly
37.27
34.77
32.27
mon.daily
35.65
34.31
32.97
  • #3,512
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:10pm Mar 13, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
I would have liked to seen the bearish bar with a lower close, but it maybe good enough to trade. What do you consider a major bear move?
Very important point you stated about the close of the weekly bar. Infact, to be really conservative one might need to wait for the close of the monthly bar as price is hitting the upper extreme of a bullish channel drawn on monthly tf. Price should drop @ least $10 from the present level. When we hit 52 EMA on weekly tf, I'll re-assess.
  • #3,513
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:16pm Mar 13, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Very important point you stated about the close of the weekly bar. Infact, to be really conservative one might need to wait for the close of the monthly bar as price is hitting the upper extreme of a bullish channel drawn on monthly tf. Price should drop @ least $10 from the present level. When we hit 52 EMA on weekly tf, I'll re-assess.
So youre expecting a drop to 26$ from the current level this week? A bit optimistic given the current situation =/
  • #3,514
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:57pm Mar 13, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting bLiTzCaT
Hi beeb, can you share with me what method are you using for trading gold. I've been trying to contact you via PM but since I'm still new/junior I couldn't do it. Currently I'm using moving averages and bollinger bands on my trading system but it ain't working so well

HI Blitzcat

I primarily use Andrews' Pitchforks to give me a sense of the frequency of the vehicle. I don't use that in isolation - I try to be aware of other indicators. If you are looking at GC on a Daily basis you might want to check out the way the price has reacted to the 150 day Moving Average over the past couple of years. Also look at the 14,3,3 and 60,3,3 stochastics over the same period.

If you are new to trading I suggest you run a dummy account until you are confident of regularly making profit and ALWAYS use stops...

beeb
  • #3,515
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:09pm Mar 13, 2011 5:09pm
I did take a small long on gold on friday, going to be a wild ride me thinks...
Attached Image
  • #3,516
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:22pm Mar 13, 2011 5:22pm
really sick about missing the silver 4hr pin on friday. The daily did form a pin, but im not taking it, due to being so high and so large, but i would think we will make new highs pretty soon judging from the PA.
Attached Image
  • #3,517
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:50pm Mar 13, 2011 5:50pm
Gold Exploding on open!!!

Nice 60 something pip GAP on EUR/USD!!!!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #3,518
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:56pm Mar 13, 2011 5:56pm
Who said XAGUSD was going to go down?

Sunday-Monday always opens with a big up move.. Check history.

Checked in some nice pips on LIVE.

Same as with USDJPY, that some people said hit the lower point, and it kept going down as espected.

The best part of all is that these were automatic take profit I set last friday.

I always take care with so called "experts" comments.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #3,519
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:14pm Mar 13, 2011 6:14pm
Kaboom! I was just $0.20 away from my long order. Missed. Now I am loaded with shorts. Very nice.

@beeb, I agree with your feelings about trading on such catastrophic scenario. Silly or not, I won't touch USDJPY. But the speculator will. The 79.75 will be history very soon when the yen starts to be repatriated.

The question is: what will happen when the market is "flooded" with other currencies, especially with USD? We may see cash flowing into PMs, for sure.

By my side, I do believe that the reconstruction efforts in Japan will affect the international market in a positive way (Japan must rebuild - it will mean lots of investments).

Any further comments?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #3,520
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:29pm Mar 13, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
Who said XAGUSD was going to go down?

Sunday-Monday always opens with a big up move.. Check history.

Checked in some nice pips on LIVE.

Same as with USDJPY, that some people said hit the lower point, and it kept going down as espected.

The best part of all is that these were automatic take profit I set last friday.

I always take care with so called "experts" comments.
mapleleaf

thank you for sharing your opinion with us.
but dont make a mess here with meaningless discuss
we r trading and need to be Psychological Well
please
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