XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

happy to say - from a bullish perspective that it didn't

Right! I thought the thread was much older...

1417 is hard to break ATM... I created an arsenal of longs since 1372, just waiting for my TP (1423). It's so close!

By the way, does anyone expect a last pullback before we challenge the all-time high?

I think we could callenge the all time high, then pullback before finally pushing through.

mind you it thought this before it broke 1265 buck in 2010!.

this is purely guessing..

gm harvest

no idea if we'll get a pullback...
smaller charts will give clues to bigger ones - not v helpful but that's the way it is......

beeb

anyone else noticed the increasing decoupling between xag and xau?

@highlander and beeb: if everybody is guessing, that's fine. If someone would come up with 5 very good reasons to say that 1417 is the top or that another big pullback is coming right now, I would rethink about my TP.

@euroscum: absolutely. XAG is quite wild at the moment. Like a simple commodity, not like a "safe haven". You posted something about backwardation, right?

I posted a link yesterday from some analysts who says the backwardation is futures driven.

Gold has just gone through another daily high but silver is lagging. When the stock market goes it will take silver with it.

harvest3r - trading IS guessing. All that technical analysis does is to remove as many of the imponderables as possible so that the trade you are left with has the best possibility of success. If you ever think a trade is a certain winner I can guarantee that something will come out of left field and screw it up lol.....ergo prudent position management.....

fwiw here's the 20min gc I'm watching now....

After my first experience with trend trading, I have to disagree with that. The correct version would be: "TREND trading is guessing". First of all, you have to guess what the direction is. Later on, you have to guess everything else - even the TP.

Actually I want to thank all of you for allowing me to enter this trend trading right now . Somehow you made my mind and I decided to give another try, after not being successful for many times. One day, instead of scalping, I left one single long position open and built another ones on the back of that floating profit. It became like a tree, full of fruits now (44 oz in green). But actually the price action in February was extremely nice to us, the trend was very smooth, so it was not that difficult. In other market conditions it would be impossible to survive all the ranging and pullbacks.

Now, back to the my luxurious "problem": I am sitting on a bunch of money (floating profit) without being able to take a stand: to take all the nice profit right now or to wait for 1423 and get 30% more, or even to wait for 1431 and get another 30%, but risking to lose everything on a bigger pullback. Even in such a good position, the technical analysis can only give some hints, nothing else. So I am left with the decision: scalp as usual? But scalping wouldn't have brought so much profit, so why not let it run again? Maybe forever? It's too much uncertainty for me... Anyway, as I already said, it's a luxurious problem right now. (By the way, 1423 and 1431 are technical-based targets).

If the trend is smooth, it's not a bad idea to give a try. But I still prefer to scalp in both directions. As long as the market ranges (someone told me that it ranges 70% of the time), I can make lots of small profits - small, but "safe". No hope is needed. But that's just me.


Here you are absolutely correct. It's just like weather forecast. I don't like betting on the weather, so... I only would bet against snow in the late spring (but I would lose at least once in a century).

I don't mean to create a discussion about trading strategies here. It's just about some personal insights. That's my report for something I never tried before but most of you are used to.

just to expand on what I meant when I suggested that "trading was guessing"....

it is in the sense that we do not KNOW what price is going to do. we don't KNOW that it is not going to go up or down by $100 in ten minutes time...all we are doing with technical analysis is examining the likelihood of something happening and acting accordingly. it is GUESSING in that it is not KNOWING - even if that guess is an educated one.....

beeb

Speaking of not knowing, there are some rumours of Gaddafi leaving Libya to Zimbabwe. My long in AUDCHF skyrocketed (sometimes I love my life ). So be careful guys... we already slipped to 1411. Let's see what happens next.

harvest3r

can't advise you what to do with your trade - but the alternative to closing it or leaving it open is to close part of the trade and/or utilise stops to ensure profit. just a thought....

beeb

From a technical standpoint there is nothing that concerns me for now, there are two uptrend lines, one is steeper than the other, we could see a move back to the shallower one. the market wiil have to pull back to allow fresh buyers in.

I dont look at fundies, so cant say what may happen with libya etc. reading the price action is all i do. at the moment every thing is cool

monthly highs hit with gold and silvers (possibly topped out for week ?) @ quarterly highs @ 33.64 area with a nice move from its pivot @ 26.27 area.
watching how 33.36 responds at moment.

Holding on longs until QE2 "is over" - arround June area

I'm still learning Gann and i'm looking at something like this. Any feedback much appreciated.

Sorry Chum - don't have a clue....

I principally use forks and supplement them on a Daily with RSI, MACD, Stochs and Moving Averages.....

beeb

bloodbaaaaath !!!!
will 1399 hold today?

Gold down on RUMOR Gaddafi has been shot

if you're trading the Dailies you should be using stops - if you're trading 10 or 20 mins you should have seen the move and gone short - if you're an investor, you shouldn't even notice....



beeb