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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #921
  • Edited 1:57am Jul 9, 2010 1:52am | Edited 1:57am
I do not but this is not a bad idea, perhaps we should start taking a look.

From what I know of options, (not a great deal) they would be used in Gold's or another commodity (or instrument)
to take advantage of the market in either direction it "May" or May not go.

Thus giving the trader the "option" without the obligation to purchase or sell the
commodity (in gold's case) at the predetermined strike prices.

They are complex. And the strategies employed may not lend any more clear a way to determine or forecast price than watching spot with tech analysis backed by fundamentals.
Rather a means to say if the price goes up I "may" sell here (because you have a put) or "i may buy here" becuase i have a call option at the attached strikes.

The trend is clearly up. As I have mentioned several times and tried to show on the charts, we are able to sustain a further corrective phase without damaging Gold's long term bull trend.

This may not be particularly helpful for the shorter term trader or buyer, Yet it should at least provide a clear structure of the trend.



Quoting jimobiwan
does anyone examine Au calls/puts OI and Call/Put ratio to shed light on possible mkt trend?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #922
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:02am Jul 9, 2010 2:02am
Jim take a look
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/op...d&selected=gld
not sure if this sheds any light. I think it just shows the most actively traded, and is not a COT report for options on GLD...
perhaps someone who trades options know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 15.png Size: 118 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #923
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:44am Jul 9, 2010 2:44am
For certain markets, I use a strategy of short options, ie short calls and short puts.

Used to work well for the SN1C1 (futures for the Nikkei 225) because it knocked about a large range for over a year.

So just shorted puts when the market was near the range low, and waited, sometimes months, for mkt to get to range high and shorted the calls and then just wait for the options to expire worthless.

So say Au rockets to 1300-1350 - seeing how we are in a wide range up channel and there is normally a 100+ pullback, might be an idea to sell calls with Max time value in the 1300 area and let them wither away to max benefit.

Long calls and puts are risky i find. The time value is a real silent killer.

Shorting makes the silent killer work for me.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #924
  • Jul 9, 2010 3:18am Jul 9, 2010 3:18am
Quoting XTrade
Are there any current positions in the room?
Yes, I'm long at 1193.41 and still have my other 5 longs in at above 1225 - 1244.5. Am sweating a bit here I have to admit.
  • #925
  • Edited 3:43am Jul 9, 2010 3:41am | Edited 3:43am
I am not taking any trades gold wise tonight.

Going to sleep! Gold is hovering below 1200 above newfound minor support at 1185 zone.

we have formed yet another triangle > pattern...

For safe trades possible buys above 1200 and shorts below 1190/85. (at own risk)

What is interesting to me is the continued correlation between the USD and Gold trending similarly. When this relationship flips back to inverse, some sparks will fly. Negative US data will help.

We are in an interesting spot here and the fate of the Euro (which is looking to break a weekly resistance will play a factor in gold in the medium term.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #926
  • Edited 4:29am Jul 9, 2010 3:58am | Edited 4:29am
Seems like you know what you are doing here mate!

I will stay away from options, trying to trade futures now and going to switch my account FX to Currenex ECN with my broker.

Will have to keep a market maker account in order to trade Gold though and although I do NOT trust them (Market Makers that is), segregating my gold trades from FX is something I have wanted to do for a while now.

Gold is the reason I am here in the first place.

The great part is I will have the ability to trade (when margined sufficiently for futures)
Futures and Forex from one platform.

Quoting jimobiwan
For certain markets, I use a strategy of short options, ie short calls and short puts.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #927
  • Jul 9, 2010 5:24am Jul 9, 2010 5:24am
Quoting XTrade
Jim take a look
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/op...d&selected=gld
not sure if this sheds any light. I think it just shows the most actively traded, and is not a COT report for options on GLD...
perhaps someone who trades options know.

I found this thingy - combined futures & options for Au
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT Au.jpg Size: 65 KB
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #928
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:03am Jul 9, 2010 7:03am
another rejection of 1200?

closed long at 1200 pending new setup

Now I know what they mean when they say

"let others do the heavy lifting!"
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #929
  • Jul 9, 2010 7:07am Jul 9, 2010 7:07am
Quoting jimobiwan
another rejection of 1200?

closed long at 1200 pending new setup

Now I know what they mean when they say

"let others do the heavy lifting!"
trying a long now 1200 with a tight SL 1198
  • #930
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:57am Jul 9, 2010 8:57am
This turned out well with a + $9.00 move.

Price needs to take out 1214 next.
Quoting auther
trying a long now 1200 with a tight SL 1198
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #931
  • Jul 9, 2010 8:59am Jul 9, 2010 8:59am
Quoting XTrade
This turned out well with a + $9.00 move.

Price needs to take out 1214 next.
Yeah... Moved my SL to 1202

Will let it ride for now...
  • #932
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:01am Jul 9, 2010 9:01am
Gold Halves Weekly Loss as Scrap Selling "Dries Up", Gold Investment & Central-Bank Diversification Seen Rising


Some interesting thoughts in here
Quote
"If you fear strong inflation, one should buy gold irrespective of the current price," says Dr. Martin Hüfner, chief economist at €3.5 billion asset manager Assenagon, writing today for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

"One should buy physical gold...not gold mining shares or gold certificates. Don't put your whole portfolio in gold, because it pays no interest. But it is your umbrella if it rains."
Quote
"Although the Chinese may be happy to hold their reserves in Western fiat money," notes the latest Commodities Weekly from French bank and London bullion dealer Natixis, "other Asian central banks may remain more inclined to continue diversifying their holdings into alternative assets such as gold."

Asian central banks currently hold an average of 3.5% of their foreign-currency reserves in Gold Bullion. The global average is 15.3%, led by the United States' allocation to gold of more than two-thirds....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #933
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:08am Jul 9, 2010 9:08am
from last article

Quote
"How much gold depends on a central bank's risk appetite: an allocation to gold of between 2.4% and 8.5% is optimal for a bank with around a 5% risk tolerance. At a risk tolerance of 8.3%, the allocation to gold increases to 29%."

More commentary:
A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold Firms on Short Covering, Bargain-Hunting Buying

He has the fibo pivot coming in at 1215 for today

Quoting Jim wyckoff
For the gold market bulls to begin to regain some upside near-term technical momentum, they will have to push and close August futures prices back above solid chart resistance at $1,230.00 an ounce. The bears' next downside price objective is producing a close in August gold futures below strong chart support at $1,168.00.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #934
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:27am Jul 9, 2010 9:27am
Nice, I bought at 1209 looking to scalp a bit here and we just got a boost !


Quoting auther
Yeah... Moved my SL to 1202

Will let it ride for now...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #935
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:53am Jul 9, 2010 9:53am
snatched up my 300 pips at 1212.

last fibo pivot posted here worked to a tee- I have to look back to see what it was.

In any case Brent and sweet crude looking up - euro and gbp down.

Swissy still hovering around support at .0500

lets see if we can take out 1214.

Looking to scalp again either now or on dip depending on PA
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #936
  • Jul 9, 2010 9:59am Jul 9, 2010 9:59am
Quoting XTrade
snatched up my 300 pips at 1212.

last fibo pivot posted here worked to a tee- I have to look back to see what it was.

In any case Brent and sweet crude looking up - euro and gbp down.

Swissy still hovering around support at .0500

lets see if we can take out 1214.

Looking to scalp again either now or on dip depending on PA
I am still sitting tight... Moved my SL to 1206
  • #937
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:03am Jul 9, 2010 10:03am
where did you find this?

Quoting jimobiwan
I found this thingy - combined futures & options for Au
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #938
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:12am Jul 9, 2010 10:12am
IMO,
It may be good time to start looking for MT & LT Long

1/ Buy 1/4 @ 1190
2/ Buy 1/4 @ 1180
3/ Buy 1/4 @ 1170
4/ Buy 1/4 @ 1160

Stop loss for All Long @ 1150
Targets : 1204 - 1214 - 1224 - 1234 - 1244 - 1254 - 1264 - 1274 - 1284

Good luck[/quote]

-------------------------------------

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=29770&page=375

This Long setup is for MT & LT Targets

So no fear of further drops it may have

Averaging every 10 usd lower until Critical Support [/quote]



1st Target met
  • #939
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:13am Jul 9, 2010 10:13am
day range done. this looks to be about it for today

1265H to 1186L is only $79. doesnt seem like much. Also not liking the pin action on daily for 07JUL. To me, it doesnt look like a resounding turnaround.

Looking more like establishing a range to knock around in for some time. Now looking for a temp high to set the range.



(just my opinion but) Am looking to short at about 1225:

 

  1. 50% Fib Ret 1265H:1186L
  2. 18DMA (now at 1226)
  3. Is above the next break at 1214 (05JUL's DH), That will force shorts to cover before slapping them down again and shaking out weak longs

in the mean time did a few long scalps today.

is there a definition of a scalp? is scalp is less than a day or under $10 range?

I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #940
  • Jul 9, 2010 10:21am Jul 9, 2010 10:21am
Quoting XTrade
where did you find this?

oops for got to incl the S:
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1278109178.php


That was the latest one i could find.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
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