DislikedUhm.. the subprime crisis was kind of obvious, really. What goes up because of huge leverage must go down at some moment.
What wasn't obvious [in fact quite the opposite what I anticipated] was that the crisis started in US and was primarily US crisis but that made USD stronger [for multiple reasons that should now be obvious to anyone interested in fundies].
This is exactly the same thing as coming USD treasuries collapse - very easy to predict but the effects are very hard to predict. I would assume once again that USD will go down hard...Ignored
In my opinion this is the problem of pure fundamental analysis: you can analyse whether an asset is over or underpriced, but you can't predict when the market reaches its turning point and starts heading towards equilibrium.
When it comes to the market, there are thousand other factors that drive prices, non of which are included in fundamental analysis. A lot of that has to do with psychology. Bubbles burst, but it is very well possible that you will be stopped out before that happens.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in