What do you expect?
The January payrolls report should be a good one, supported by a number of special factors. Our bias is for an above-consensus estimate. However, there are so many statistical issues that it might be a complete surprise in both directions. Forecasters have traditionally done a lousy job in forecasting the results. It will also be very difficult to interpret the figures on the release itself. This might also impact market reactions and turnarounds in directions some minutes after the release are a possibility.
by KBC Bank
The January payrolls report should be a good one, supported by a number of special factors. Our bias is for an above-consensus estimate. However, there are so many statistical issues that it might be a complete surprise in both directions. Forecasters have traditionally done a lousy job in forecasting the results. It will also be very difficult to interpret the figures on the release itself. This might also impact market reactions and turnarounds in directions some minutes after the release are a possibility.
by KBC Bank