Interesting day. Cut longs at the NY open, went short, hit target.
All of this discussion regarding, can it go lower?
Anything can happen, of course.
Trying to predict it guesswork.
Sticking to price action only.
What I observe is that any big players - banks, China - are buying and holding on the grounds that Gold will be a holder of real-money-value long-term, even moreso than fiat currencies. They don't keep it locked up in vaults and continually accumulate for it to lose value long term.
That being said, it would be more attractive to accumulate at a lower price! And if you are holding truly long term, minor short-term price changes aren't significant and represent a discount.
Where does that leave us? In the unknown. I personally had thought that when oil crashed, which it did, gold would rise considerably. It didn't. The next catalyst, in my amateur reckoning, will be when the AI bubble bursts, which as been a long time coming, but they continue to kick that can down the road. When it starts to leak, the air will come out fast, and only the profitable players (if any) will remain liquid, or be absorbed. Look at META, which changed it's name to enter the 'metaverse' which never came into being. It was a huge company and it was like that mistake didn't matter a wit. Nobody entered the metaverse. But what about companies that focus ONLY on AI? With no other revenue stream, or potential revenue stream? Or, we see the re-locating of cloud services to local servers now, as companies figure out remote data-centres are not actually efficient from a cost or usage perspective.
My take - having watched players come and go from the digital landscape for 5 decades now - is that we will see a consolidation of players soon. When this happens, capital will flow elsewhere, new valuations will be established, and pie-in-the-sky ideas (like the METAVERSE or massive AI data centres) will be redundant. I mean, Moore's law tells us that computing power doubles every two years. So in 4 years, 1/4 the size will be needed (eg., massive datacentres won't be paid for by the time they are redundant). In 8 years, a datacenter will fit on your smartphone, or maybe a chip implanted in your brain.
To add to that - modular nuclear power for datacenters will ALSO be a pie-in-the-sky, useless idea. By the time they get them built, they won't be needed. Don't invest in nuclear. Or deep-ocean mining. These are both get-rich-quick schemes from the 1% that will ultimately go nowhere. Nuclear is the most expensive way to boil water. Deep-ocean mining cannot possibly be profitable.
So Im rambling now but basically saying, everything will change. Gold will go up long term, short term, who knows; don't invest in AI, cloud computing, or data centres; be ready for the next big move when it comes.
I hope y'all had success this week! +47.72% for me. Could have done better. Will be hitting it hard next week.
Cheers!
All of this discussion regarding, can it go lower?
Anything can happen, of course.
Trying to predict it guesswork.
Sticking to price action only.
What I observe is that any big players - banks, China - are buying and holding on the grounds that Gold will be a holder of real-money-value long-term, even moreso than fiat currencies. They don't keep it locked up in vaults and continually accumulate for it to lose value long term.
That being said, it would be more attractive to accumulate at a lower price! And if you are holding truly long term, minor short-term price changes aren't significant and represent a discount.
Where does that leave us? In the unknown. I personally had thought that when oil crashed, which it did, gold would rise considerably. It didn't. The next catalyst, in my amateur reckoning, will be when the AI bubble bursts, which as been a long time coming, but they continue to kick that can down the road. When it starts to leak, the air will come out fast, and only the profitable players (if any) will remain liquid, or be absorbed. Look at META, which changed it's name to enter the 'metaverse' which never came into being. It was a huge company and it was like that mistake didn't matter a wit. Nobody entered the metaverse. But what about companies that focus ONLY on AI? With no other revenue stream, or potential revenue stream? Or, we see the re-locating of cloud services to local servers now, as companies figure out remote data-centres are not actually efficient from a cost or usage perspective.
My take - having watched players come and go from the digital landscape for 5 decades now - is that we will see a consolidation of players soon. When this happens, capital will flow elsewhere, new valuations will be established, and pie-in-the-sky ideas (like the METAVERSE or massive AI data centres) will be redundant. I mean, Moore's law tells us that computing power doubles every two years. So in 4 years, 1/4 the size will be needed (eg., massive datacentres won't be paid for by the time they are redundant). In 8 years, a datacenter will fit on your smartphone, or maybe a chip implanted in your brain.
To add to that - modular nuclear power for datacenters will ALSO be a pie-in-the-sky, useless idea. By the time they get them built, they won't be needed. Don't invest in nuclear. Or deep-ocean mining. These are both get-rich-quick schemes from the 1% that will ultimately go nowhere. Nuclear is the most expensive way to boil water. Deep-ocean mining cannot possibly be profitable.
So Im rambling now but basically saying, everything will change. Gold will go up long term, short term, who knows; don't invest in AI, cloud computing, or data centres; be ready for the next big move when it comes.
I hope y'all had success this week! +47.72% for me. Could have done better. Will be hitting it hard next week.
Cheers!
... the True North, Strong and Free
