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Make More Money - Eliminate DRAMA 11 replies

Just posting my trades, everyone is welcome but no drama 2 replies

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Gold with No Drama

  • #62,521
  • Jul 11, 12:50pm (4 hr ago) Jul 11, 12:50pm (4 hr ago)
Quoting Muxb7
{quote} From my perspective, I’m still leaning bearish in the short term, but Monday’s open will depend heavily on geopolitical headlines. Technically, gold is showing signs of weakening after failing to sustain higher levels, with sellers defending resistance and momentum fading. Unless buyers reclaim those key resistance zones, I still prefer selling rallies rather than chasing buys. The main risk to this bearish view is the Middle East. Iran’s new Supreme Leader has publicly vowed revenge for the killing of his predecessor, and tensions remain...
Thank you very much. Appreciate the help!
  • #62,522
  • Jul 11, 12:59pm (4 hr ago) Jul 11, 12:59pm (4 hr ago)
Quoting Muxb7
{quote} From my perspective, I’m still leaning bearish in the short term, but Monday’s open will depend heavily on geopolitical headlines. Technically, gold is showing signs of weakening after failing to sustain higher levels, with sellers defending resistance and momentum fading. Unless buyers reclaim those key resistance zones, I still prefer selling rallies rather than chasing buys. The main risk to this bearish view is the Middle East. Iran’s new Supreme Leader has publicly vowed revenge for the killing of his predecessor, and tensions remain...
I have been observing impact of geopolitical news on gold lately and it seems gold reacts the opposite way quite often. My view is that any escalation with Iran leads to higher oil prices which reignites inflation concerns and in turn — potential for fed’s hike. Fed hike worry usually drives gold lower as it is a non-yielding asset and it becomes more expensive to hold it. Can be wrong too, but that’s my conclusions so far.
  • #62,523
  • Jul 11, 1:06pm (4 hr ago) Jul 11, 1:06pm (4 hr ago)
Quoting daftpunk
{quote} I have been observing impact of geopolitical news on gold lately and it seems gold reacts the opposite way quite often. My view is that any escalation with Iran leads to higher oil prices which reignites inflation concerns and in turn — potential for fed’s hike. Fed hike worry usually drives gold lower as it is a non-yielding asset and it becomes more expensive to hold it. Can be wrong too, but that’s my conclusions so far.
I've been observing the corolation between gold and news pertaining to oil lately
  • #62,524
  • Jul 11, 1:07pm (4 hr ago) Jul 11, 1:07pm (4 hr ago)
Quoting daftpunk
{quote} I have been observing impact of geopolitical news on gold lately and it seems gold reacts the opposite way quite often. My view is that any escalation with Iran leads to higher oil prices which reignites inflation concerns and in turn — potential for fed’s hike. Fed hike worry usually drives gold lower as it is a non-yielding asset and it becomes more expensive to hold it. Can be wrong too, but that’s my conclusions so far.
That’s a fair point, and I think the key is the market’s time horizon.

In the immediate aftermath of geopolitical escalation, gold often rallies because investors rush into safe-haven assets. But if the conflict starts pushing oil prices significantly higher and inflation expectations rise, the market may begin pricing in a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates or higher real yields tend to strengthen the dollar and create headwinds for gold.

So both reactions can be correct—they just happen at different stages. The initial move is driven by fear and risk aversion, while the later move is driven by monetary policy expectations.

That’s why I try not to trade the headline itself. I watch how the bond market, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields react after the news. If yields and the dollar start climbing despite geopolitical tension, that can limit or even reverse gold’s gains.

In the end, price action is the final judge. News creates the catalyst, but the market’s reaction tells us which narrative is actually winning.
  • #62,525
  • Jul 11, 2:06pm (3 hr ago) Jul 11, 2:06pm (3 hr ago)
Quoting daftpunk
{quote} I have been observing impact of geopolitical news on gold lately and it seems gold reacts the opposite way quite often. My view is that any escalation with Iran leads to higher oil prices which reignites inflation concerns and in turn — potential for fed’s hike. Fed hike worry usually drives gold lower as it is a non-yielding asset and it becomes more expensive to hold it. Can be wrong too, but that’s my conclusions so far.
If I tell you that price moves in scripted ways and news are only accelerators of a certain pattern, would you believe me?
Matryoschka
  • #62,526
  • Jul 11, 2:10pm (3 hr ago) Jul 11, 2:10pm (3 hr ago)
Quoting Rednose
{quote} If I tell you that price moves in scripted ways and news are only accelerators of a certain pattern, would you believe me?
Bro You are the oldest player of forex factory like the internet was damn slow how are u still alivefeeling good right in this quick generation.
RM
  • #62,527
  • Jul 11, 2:13pm (3 hr ago) Jul 11, 2:13pm (3 hr ago)
Quoting mehtataarak6
{quote} Bro You are the oldest player of forex factory like the internet was damn slow how are u still alivefeeling good right in this quick generation.
Alive and kicking.
Trading did beat my ass in the past tough.
Matryoschka
  • #62,528
  • Jul 11, 3:11pm (2 hr 29 min ago) Jul 11, 3:11pm (2 hr 29 min ago)
Quoting Muxb7
{quote} From my perspective, I’m still leaning bearish in the short term, but Monday’s open will depend heavily on geopolitical headlines. Technically, gold is showing signs of weakening after failing to sustain higher levels, with sellers defending resistance and momentum fading. Unless buyers reclaim those key resistance zones, I still prefer selling rallies rather than chasing buys. The main risk to this bearish view is the Middle East. Iran’s new Supreme Leader has publicly vowed revenge for the killing of his predecessor, and tensions remain...
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mannnnan
  • #62,529
  • Jul 11, 3:12pm (2 hr 28 min ago) Jul 11, 3:12pm (2 hr 28 min ago)
Quoting mehtataarak6
{quote} Bro You are the oldest player of forex factory like the internet was damn slow how are u still alivefeeling good right in this quick generation.
Bro joined Forex factory when I was 4
  • #62,530
  • Jul 11, 3:26pm (2 hr 14 min ago) Jul 11, 3:26pm (2 hr 14 min ago)
Quoting Karlzhhh
{quote} Bro joined Forex factory when I was 4
"That's wild, I was still rocking diapers at 2 years old when he joined! "
mannnnan
  • #62,531
  • Jul 11, 3:38pm (2 hr 2 min ago) Jul 11, 3:38pm (2 hr 2 min ago)
Quoting mannnnnnan
{quote} {image}
due respect to all trader here with good experience everyone is having. maybe I’m wrong and your are right.
but this is what I’m thinking or even lower it will go.
but nobody can predict the market 100% specially GOLD.
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  • #62,532
  • Jul 11, 3:46pm (1 hr 54 min ago) Jul 11, 3:46pm (1 hr 54 min ago)
Quoting Muxb7
{quote} due respect to all trader here with good experience everyone is having. maybe I’m wrong and your are right. but this is what I’m thinking or even lower it will go. but nobody can predict the market 100% specially GOLD. {image}
"Bro, I have the same bias for both buy and sell, but I'm not fully certain. My analysis looks very similar to yours, but due to a recent market structure shift and the liquidity collected below, I'm leaning more towards the buy side."
mannnnan
  • #62,533
  • Last Post: Jul 11, 3:56pm (1 hr 45 min ago) Jul 11, 3:56pm (1 hr 45 min ago)
Quoting mannnnnnan
{quote} "Bro, I have the same bias for both buy and sell, but I'm not fully certain. My analysis looks very similar to yours, but due to a recent market structure shift and the liquidity collected below, I'm leaning more towards the buy side."
I respect that view, and honestly that’s what makes the market interesting — the same chart can give two different scenarios depending on what structure you prioritize.

I agree that the liquidity sweep below and the recent structure shift are valid points for the buy side. My concern is that price still needs to prove buyers have enough strength to break and hold above the resistance area. A liquidity grab can sometimes be the fuel for continuation, but it can also be a trap before another move lower.

For me, the key is confirmation. If buyers reclaim the resistance and create a higher high, I would reconsider the bearish idea. Until then, I’m treating the rejection from resistance and the lower-high structure as the dominant factor.

At the end of the day, both scenarios are possible — the market will decide. The important thing is having a clear invalidation level and not being emotionally attached to one bias.
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daftpunk
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