Attachments: Gold with No Drama

Gold with No Drama

#61,601
Jul 7, 9:17pm (12 hr ago) Jul 7, 9:17pm (12 hr ago)

Cruza
| Joined Aug 2025 | Status: Trader | 8 Posts

Quoting New2Trade

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{quote} Why do you draw the red lines like that?

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Bollinger bands indicator

#61,602
Jul 7, 9:49pm (11 hr ago) Jul 7, 9:49pm (11 hr ago)

trader963
| Joined Apr 2026 | Status: Trader | 39 Posts

Tehran’s military has promised a “crushing response” as Iranian media reported explosions in the port city of Sirik, in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveb...hormuz-attacks

#61,603
Jul 7, 9:49pm (11 hr ago) Jul 7, 9:49pm (11 hr ago)

PatienceFx
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 24,052 Posts

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if you do not like my post, i will not post here

#61,604
Edited 10:50pm Jul 7, 10:37pm (10 hr ago) | Edited 10:50pm

PatienceFx
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 24,052 Posts

i love AI

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if you do not like my post, i will not post here

#61,605
Jul 7, 10:47pm (10 hr ago) Jul 7, 10:47pm (10 hr ago)

PatienceFx
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 24,052 Posts

testing it

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if you do not like my post, i will not post here

#61,606
Edited 11:06pm Jul 7, 10:54pm (10 hr ago) | Edited 11:06pm

StillDreamer
| Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 238 Posts

Quoting Karlzhhh

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Also one thing to note we have seen some news with US & Iran. Market didn't really react. This could be suggesting a possible shift of dominance. Buyers are actually keeping support strong. Like I said time will tell. worth to note momentum plays a massive part in price. 24% of the H1 2026 (First 6 months) was priced moving based on momentum. Worth to keep a note. Gold may be undervalued more than people speculate.

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Agree. Probably, we are hovering around bottom in bigger timeframes (weekly/monthly). 3900s-4000s at last 2 weeks can be lowest levels in near future (6 months).

After FED meeting, market has priced 2 rate hikes (Sep and Dec) for this year and it caused a fall below 4000 (I was not expecting that as I wrote below, because I didn't and still don't believe such hawkishness (2 hikes) from FED. But, market has appeared to believe it for some time or maybe for liquidity seek or for some other reasons, we have visited under 4000). After less than expected NFP numbers and mild PCE number, Sep rate hike bets has decreased and Gold has jumped. As a result, we have seen a green weekly candle last week, finally after several red weekly candles. My prediction is with decreasing oil prices, inflation will ease again soon (probably we have seen top already) and probably we will see only 1 rate hike this year if it ever would occur. Only 1 hike is gold bullish of course given recent 2 rate hikes expectation.

Some traders expect the restarting of Iran war and as a result, higher oil and lower Gold prices. But, imho, we will see only some tit for tat actions from both sides like happening yesterday and today, but not full-scale attacks or closure of strait again. The reason for this assumption is that I think, Trump want to keep strait open and oil down until autumn election at US. He is very pragmatic politician and probably, he won't let anybody escalate this war (to the point of closure of strait) again until then.

So, given my assumptions and fundamental analysis above, I speculate that the direction of gold is north from now on at weekly timeframe. It seems to me that 4200s, 4300s and above are coming at following weeks.

On the other hand, technically, weekly gold chart looks still bearish.

Just my opinions not a trade advice.

Quoting StillDreamer

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SP500 and Gold gaps have been filled. Hawkishness at FED projections and conference have been exaggerated imo (partly to close gaps). I wouldn't be suprised big up reversals tomorrow as happened many times after FED meetings. To be honest, I'm not so convinced the idea of really hawkish FED or new FED Chairman. Warsh has told just what a serious FED president should say and tried to become convincing about inflation. But is he or is FED really too serious about inflation target? They didn't do anything so far while inflation is already high (so...

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#61,607
Jul 7, 11:00pm (10 hr ago) Jul 7, 11:00pm (10 hr ago)

Raventine
Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Zeroing In on Chaos | 2,064 Posts

1 entry after 2 day of wait, no more, very unstable week, must be careful
targeting last week news

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Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.

#61,608
Jul 7, 11:06pm (10 hr ago) Jul 7, 11:06pm (10 hr ago)

Rizkifadlali
| Joined Jul 2022 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

Quoting Raventine

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1 entry after 2 day of wait, no more, very unstable week, must be careful targeting last week news {image}

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What is your reason for selling at that price?

#61,609
Jul 7, 11:18pm (10 hr ago) Jul 7, 11:18pm (10 hr ago)

PatienceFx
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 24,052 Posts

the ea will automatically book if trend changes

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#61,610
Jul 8, 1:26am (7 hr ago) Jul 8, 1:26am (7 hr ago)

shawkat2025
| Joined Sep 2025 | Status: I talk only to people with IQ>180 | 257 Posts

Quoting PatienceFx

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the ea will automatically book if trend changes {image}

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With the ongoing escalation between the US and Iran, things will turn extremely bearish.

#61,611
Jul 8, 1:28am (7 hr ago) Jul 8, 1:28am (7 hr ago)

shawkat2025
| Joined Sep 2025 | Status: I talk only to people with IQ>180 | 257 Posts

Quoting shawkat2025

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{quote} With the ongoing escalation between the US and Iran, things will turn extremely bearish.

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I am watching for Iran retaliation.

#61,612
Jul 8, 1:34am (7 hr ago) Jul 8, 1:34am (7 hr ago)

DSnail05
| Joined May 2026 | Status: Trader | 5 Posts

Quoting StillDreamer

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{quote} Agree. Probably, we are hovering around bottom in bigger timeframes (weekly/monthly). 3900s-4000s at last 2 weeks can be lowest levels in near future (6 months). After FED meeting, market has priced 2 rate hikes (Sep and Dec) for this year and it caused a fall below 4000 (I was not expecting that as I wrote below, because I didn't and still don't believe such hawkishness (2 hikes) from FED. But, market has appeared to believe it for some time or maybe for liquidity seek or for some other reasons, we have visited under 4000). After less than...

Ignored

Someone with actual decent insight here. Appreciate it!

A final push down to 4010 - 4063 would be my ideal entry for a larger hold.