Gold with No Drama

give your opinion for today's nfp friends

what was that spike lol

ty for the PDF

Tp 4489

when ever price consolidates like this, we can foresee a huge expansion either to the upside or downside.. lets all catch the movement staying on the correct side.. all the best to us traders haha!

Good Morning Intrepid $XAU Traders!

Hit 2/3 targets short from yesterday, woke up right at the bottom, closed, went long, now targetting 4509 & higher.

As its a Friday we could see either a beautiful trend ("I see the market rising, like a beautiful bird!") or range-y one minute chart action.

It looks like price action is leaning bullish but as always that could change in a heartbeat/tick.

We shall see! Great week so far.

All the best fellow traders.

Attachment f

those sentiment figures are incredible

i guess we all know OAN broker are all the clueless retailers LOL

i still have a 4543 target inside that 3 week range...my guess price spikes up to hit it during NFP but if closes the day over it may postpone the drop to 4100 for a couple more weeks

Fell asleep before i could post but took a short @4442.37 tp hit @4431.03

gold not reacting to the iran uranium story

seems like we entered buy the rumor and sell the news phase

Hi. The expected value of NFP is less than the current value, which is generally bearish for the dollar and hence bullish for the gold. However, the price many times goes in the opposite direction before the news. I am a bit surprised we haven't seen a significant fall in the gold price yet- unless the big traders already know the NFP value and it is not what is expected.

just wanted to see if pranks work

Closed at 4474 to be sure before NFE. One step away from SL, 4458.30 and my SL was 4458.00 )

A lot of people don't understand what Iran is doing, so let me explain it briefly:

Iran isn't going to send anything anywhere, and they’re not going to agree to anything. Simply put, they’re stalling for time.

They fully understand that the longer the SoH stays closed, the more extreme the situation becomes. We are already approaching SPR critical levels, and they likely only need another 1-2 months before things begin to collapse.

- End of June: ~300 Million barrels.
- End of July : ~260 Million barrels.

(estimates based on predictive models)

So, the longer the SoH remains closed, the more extreme the global recession will be - potentially one of the worst in history.

People choose to ignore this and just go on with their lives - I fully respect that (ignorance is bliss) and nothing we can do but to prepare for the worst. We will start feeling the aftermath this month and in the months ahead.

people conveniently forget the iran pakistan border open for trade...iran sells oil and buys weapons thru the border so they arent feeling the pinch from the strait being closed

and pakistan has nukes so hump and yahu wont do anything to them

The US labour market entering June 2026 is showing a "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic characterized by stabilizing private-sector momentum but creeping overall weakness. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Economic data released throughout May and the first week of June 2026 points to a market that is moderately expanding but structurally cooling: [5, 6]

1. The April NFP Report (Released May 8): Surprised the upside by adding 115,000 jobs, beating the modest 62,000 expectation. However, a net negative 16,000 revision to prior months flagged a softer baseline. [2, 7]
2. ADP Private Payrolls (Released June 3): Showed private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, beating the 117,000 forecast. Crucially, hiring was broad-based across 8 out of 10 sectors, led by education and healthcare (+57k) and small businesses (+67k). [8]
3. Jobless Claims (Released June 4): Initial weekly filings jumped sharply to 225,000, a four-month high, signaling that cracks are expanding slightly on the layoff front. [1, 9, 10]

View on Coming May NFP Numbers (Releasing June 5)
The consensus estimate for the upcoming May NFP report is a gain of 85,000 to 105,000 jobs, with the national unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.3%. [2, 11, 12]
Given the leading indicators, here is the outlook for the release:

1. Likely Outcome (Mild Upside Bias): Nonfarm payrolls will likely land near or slightly above the consensus range (around 100k - 115k). This is heavily supported by the resilient ADP data, which demonstrated a strong private hiring push heading into the summer season. [13]
2. The Unemployment Risk: The headline jobless rate is highly vulnerable to rounding up to 4.4%. This is driven by recent contractions in the overall labor force participation rate (which fell to 61.8% in April) combined with the spike in weekly jobless claims. [1, 14, 15]
3. Wage Inflation Pressure: Average hourly earnings are projected to accelerate slightly to 0.3% month-over-month. Because annual inflation remains sticky (CPI hit 3.8% in May data), any hot wage print will reinforce the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Kevin Warsh. [2, 5, 12]

Macro Impact Summary
Indicator [1, 2, 8, 15, 16] April ActualMay Consensus ForecastLabour Market Trajectory
Nonfarm Payrolls115K85K - 105KSlowing but stable; insulated by strong service and medical sectors.
Unemployment Rate4.3%4.3%Risk of edging to 4.4% due to higher recent weekly layoffs.
Wage Growth (YoY)3.6%3.4%Moderating gradually, though monthly gains are tracking higher.
Ultimately, the figures will show a labour market that is cooling just enough to validate a higher-for-longer interest rate environment (holding steady at 3.50%-3.75%), but not deteriorating quickly enough to trigger emergency rate cuts. [15, 17]

bro just say bullish or bearish