BTC – Technical Notes

Bitcoin still maintains a bullish institutional structure, but the trend is starting to show signs of internal pressure.
Latest COT data shows that bullish continuity remains dominant, although transition pressure has increased in recent weeks. Open Interest is moderate and below historical extremes, suggesting participation is still healthy but not in an overheated phase.
Macro conditions continue to support risk assets like BTC through dollar weakness and liquidity expansion, but mixed signals remain in the background.
In short: BTC is still structurally bullish, but the trend is becoming more mature and challenged. Institutions have not abandoned the move yet, but pressure inside the structure is clearly growing.

nice thread, where do you think BTC is going?

Does technicial analysis works on BTC trading? I only hold some.

My current perception on bitcoin see those photos the information i written there.

Hello everyone!

Regarding BTC, I’m currently looking to sell it.

The market is coming into a very strong area with a solid rejection.

On the H4 timeframe, a BB has formed. However, we also need to keep in mind the daily SIBI that could potentially form during today’s session.

This means there are two possible scenarios: either taking a short entry today to target the PML, or waiting for the SIBI to form in order to potentially get a better short entry, while keeping the same target.

Let’s wait and see how the market reacts.

I’m open to all your comments

For me, it is a buy as it has broken several of my own analysis by going down at this point. This should go at least till 76600. But then again, cant time this also.
Have to caution that weekly timeframe does show a broad sell position.
Disclaimer: Just my opinion. I can also be horribly wrong.

What is next ? will go to up ?

Once again, I always ask myself the same questions when analyzing the market:

1. Has price returned to an attractive area to continue its trend?
2. Has it broken key levels that indicate strong buying or selling pressure?
3. Do I have a clear target before taking a position?

At this stage, my top-down analysis shows that price has returned to premium areas where it previously left imbalances. In addition, it has formed a Daily Breaker as well as a Daily Engulfing Candle, which suggests a strong intention from the market to continue in its current direction.

As always, this is simply my personal analysis based on what I see in the market, not on what I want the market to do.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing it with you all!

One thing I find interesting in trading communities is the problem of reputation.
Many people make market predictions, calls and analysis, but later it is very easy to delete bad calls, edit old posts or only show the successful ones. Because of that, it becomes difficult to understand who really has a good long-term record and who only keeps a cleaned-up history.
I think immutable public posts could be useful for traders. If market forecasts, analysis and calls are stored in a way that cannot be rewritten later, reputation becomes much more honest. Good predictions stay visible, but wrong predictions also stay visible.

What do you think? Would immutable prediction history be useful for trading reputation, or is it too strict?

I completely agree that it is unfortunate when some individuals alter their predictions after publication simply because those predictions turned out to be incorrect.
In my opinion, making an inaccurate prediction is actually a valuable opportunity to learn, improve, and better understand which aspects of the analysis could have been interpreted differently.
However, I do not believe that a system preventing any modifications should be implemented. People who publish analyses or predictions should take responsibility for their posts and learn from their mistakes. Being wrong is an essential part of the learning process, especially in trading.
There are many benefits to acknowledging and learning from mistakes. No one can be right all the time; if that were the case, trading simply would not exist.
From my perspective, everyone should take ownership of their published content, whether their predictions turn out to be correct or not.

Since the beginning of 2026, BTC has stopped following tech stocks.

Either it’s fucked, or tech stocks have become massively overbubbled.