EURUSD & GOLD

The new fed chair is going to cause a worldwide stock market crash

Based on the economic calendar for the week of May 17, 2026, here are the key high-impact USD events and their projected influence on the U.S. Dollar.
Key USD Economic Events: Week of May 17, 2026
DateEventExpected Impact
Monday, May 18NY Fed Services Activity IndexLow-Medium: Gauges the health of the services sector in the NY region.
Monday, May 18NAHB Housing Market IndexMedium: Measures confidence in the single-family housing market; reflects broader economic momentum.
Tuesday, May 19Building Permits / Housing StartsMedium-High: Leading indicators of future construction activity and investment.
Wednesday, May 20FOMC Meeting MinutesHigh: Detailed records of the most recent Fed meeting. This is often a major market mover.
Thursday, May 21Unemployment ClaimsHigh: Weekly measure of people filing for jobless benefits; key for labor market strength.
Thursday, May 21Philly Fed Manufacturing IndexMedium-High: A snapshot of manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia district.
Friday, May 22Existing Home SalesMedium: Indicates the health of the housing resale market.
Analysis of Impact on USD
1. FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday)
This is arguably the most significant event of the week. Investors look for "hawkish" or "dovish" signals regarding future interest rate hikes or cuts.

 

1. Impact: If the minutes suggest that the Fed is concerned about inflation and may keep rates high for longer, the USD typically strengthens. Conversely, if the tone suggests a pause or upcoming cuts due to economic cooling, the USD may weaken.

2. Labor Market Data: Jobless Claims (Thursday)
The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that its policy decisions are "data-dependent," with the labor market being a primary pillar.

1. Impact: Lower-than-expected jobless claims suggest a tight, resilient labor market, which provides the Fed with more room to maintain higher interest rates, typically supporting the USD. A spike in claims would signal economic softening and could weigh on the USD.

3. Manufacturing and Services Indices
The NY Services and Philly Fed indices provide an early look at how the real economy is performing in May.

1. Impact: Strong readings (above 0 or exceeding forecasts) indicate expansion. This usually increases investor confidence in the U.S. economy, leading to USD appreciation.

4. Housing Sector Data (Building Permits & Existing Home Sales)
The housing market is a sensitive barometer for interest rate impacts.

 

1. Impact: If housing data remains resilient despite high rates, it signals that the economy is not yet "cooling" enough for the Fed, which can be bullish for the USD. Weak housing data may lead to speculation of a "hard landing," causing USD volatility.

Summary of USD Direction
The overall sentiment for the USD this week will likely be dictated by the FOMC Minutes. If the Fed remains committed to a "higher for longer" interest rate stance to combat inflation, the USD is poised to remain strong against its major peers (like the EUR and GBP). However, any sign of labor market weakness on Thursday could quickly reverse those gains.

Clean write-up, appreciate the structure.

Agreeing with the FOMC Minutes being the key event — everything else this week is noise unless claims come in way off consensus. The 'higher for longer' narrative has been holding the dollar up, and it would take a pretty significant deterioration in labor data to crack that.

One thing to watch alongside the minutes: Fed speaker commentary earlier in the week could front-run the tone. If we get hawkish rhetoric Mon/Tue, DXY may already be bid heading into Wednesday, leaving less room for upside surprise on the minutes themselves.

Bookmarked — will revisit after Wednesday's release.

But we already know what the FOMC will say: they expect a rate hike, which is bearish for EURUSD and gold.

1. gold opened the week near the lows of last week
2. general consensus is fed cannot cut rates because of inflation
3. gold h4 rsi suggests some sideways consolidation before fomc

GOLD

GOLD near support test soon

$DXY here now GOLD QQQ etc direction soon !!

simplest 5 minute logic , no brainer

4558–4562 is looking like a strong Fibonacci resistance zone on XAUUSD.
Watching for bearish rejection from this area as smart money may push the market lower from premium prices.

Central bank demand for gold increases: 60 tons on average and prices supported until the end of the year

Central bank demand for gold has proven stronger than previously estimated and is expected to increase again, supporting the recovery of prices until the end of the year, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. It is estimated that purchases will reach an average of 60 tons of gold.

How to interpret oil consumption:
- negative values for “stocks change” = stocks decreased → consumption/demand higher than supply → usually bullish for oil
-* positive values = stocks increased → excess supply → usually bearish

What the chart shows: * Change in crude oil stocks: -4.306 million * crude oil stocks decreased by ~4.3 million barrels * quite strong bullish signal
* Change in gasoline stocks: -4.084M * gasoline stocks decreased a lot * suggests high fuel consumption * bullish for refineries and gasoline * Change in crude oil imports: -0.318 million

* US imported less gasoline * contributes to reducing stocks * Change in crude oil stocks: -1.702M * large decrease at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub (very important point for the WTI contract) * usually very bullish for WTI but

* Change in distillate stocks: +0.19 million * small increase in diesel/distillates * slightly bearish, but not significant compared to other data
* Gasoline production change: +0.222 million * refineries produced more gasoline * looking to meet high demand
* Refinery crude oil flow change: +0.37 million * refineries are processing more oil * sign of economic activity and demand
Overall interpretation: * data set is overall bullish for oil * highlights: 1. large draw in crude stocks 2. large draw in gasoline stocks 3. drawdown at Cushing Therefore, after such data: * WTI/Brent tends to rise * oil stocks can react positively

* USD/CAD sometimes falls (CAD strengthens because Canada exports oil) Important:

The market reacts not only to the absolute figure, but to: * comparison with the forecast analysts * macro context (Fed, China, geopolitics) * whether data comes from API or official EIA confirmation

Namar all membere ।
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XAUUSD SELL SETUP
Smart money is repeatedly calling buyers into the market while price continues respecting the Fibonacci resistance zone.
This move looks like pure liquidity collection before the real bearish expansion begins.
Resistance Zone: 4502 – 4508
First Target: Fibonacci Golden Zone
Second Target: Previous Market Low
As long as price stays below the resistance area, sellers remain in control and a strong downside move is expected.

good choice

i finally built something usable, the concept is same as post 1 of this thread

so

1. macd told me what is the current momentum
2. bollinger told me what is the current volatility
3. rsi told me what is the current strength

i now have

1. trend direction
2. trend momentum
3. trend strength

all i have to do now is FIND WHICH F*ING NEWS WILL move the price

Congratulations!

The big boys know the direction of the USD since the early hours of the morning.

adding supply and liquidity gives approximate target zone