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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #621
  • May 3, 2026 1:11pm May 3, 2026 1:11pm
Zappa, do you have any YouTube channel or any other social media?
mannnnan
  • #622
  • May 3, 2026 1:16pm May 3, 2026 1:16pm
Good Day $BTC traders!

Weekly theory... the weekly chart flipped bullish a few weeks ago obviously.

My theory this week is minor pullback, starting probably now, and then a bull run to 80-84K.

Its been coiled up for a while, equity will come out of oil & stocks soon enough, rotation, same with gold. When oil comes down watch for $BTC + $XAU to spike.

Safe trades only!
... the True North, Strong and Free
  • #623
  • May 3, 2026 1:31pm May 3, 2026 1:31pm
Quoting mannnnnnan
Zappa, do you have any YouTube channel or any other social media?
No, this is literally the only place I post anything online. Been a member here since 2007. Took a break from posting in 2017 and just started again a few months ago. Was planning on just posting one trade set up, but here we are 500 posts later, haha.

I guess i just feel like I have something to give that might help some of you all out, or at least provide something to consider. Ive been at it a long time now and have learned a lot over the years
  • #624
  • May 3, 2026 1:38pm May 3, 2026 1:38pm
Wanted to add one more thing about use of larger stops (2,000-4,000). When I do use a wider stop, I don't like to let it actually go all the way there before I take the loss. The stop is there for worst case scenario, but most times I will realize im wrong before it gets to my SL. A wide SL just gives me more wiggle room to give the market a chance.

Also, 2,000-4,000 is typical when market is around the price it is at now. It btc was trading at 125k right now, the typical stop would be around 3,000 to 6,000. So its more of a % of the current btc price
  • #625
  • May 3, 2026 1:54pm May 3, 2026 1:54pm
Hi Zappa,
Thank you so much for the feedback and for sharing your perspective on wider stops. The idea of calculating the SL as a percentage of the current price and using it as a "worst case scenario" rather than waiting for it to be hit makes a lot of sense.
I am currently in the process of transitioning from day trading to swing trading. Since I am adapting to this new approach, I would love to ask for your advice. Could you recommend any specific traders to follow, books, courses, or methodologies tailored for swing trading? I am looking for resources on both technical analysis for higher timeframes (H4, Daily, and Weekly) and macroeconomic fundamental analysis.
Finally, I would like to ask your opinion on a specific approach: what are your thoughts on combining the Wyckoff Method with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for swing trading?
Thanks again for your time and insights!
  • #626
  • May 3, 2026 2:03pm May 3, 2026 2:03pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Thank you Olu, but I dont always use a big stop. I usually dont actually, though I guess it depends on what you consider massive. Like in trade im in right now. My entry is at 78510. Stop is at 77,700. Only $800. Now that is very tight one for me, but usually around 2000 to 4000. All depends on where I think it should NOT go
Hi Zappa
Thanks for the clarification.
My stops are usually 500 points but the stakes can be larger per trade.
I try and get to within this stop before I put on the trade.
There are some times when I spot a trade and the SL has to be over 500 and I walk away to my regret because I could half my stake/size and increase SL and TP
My stops are set usually because of my target.
I have set smaller stops before but the usually have not worked out.
This is why I was talking about the natural ups and downs of this instrument.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #627
  • May 3, 2026 2:30pm May 3, 2026 2:30pm
Quoting Zappa
Wanted to add one more thing about use of larger stops (2,000-4,000). When I do use a wider stop, I don't like to let it actually go all the way there before I take the loss. The stop is there for worst case scenario, but most times I will realize im wrong before it gets to my SL. A wide SL just gives me more wiggle room to give the market a chance. Also, 2,000-4,000 is typical when market is around the price it is at now. It btc was trading at 125k right now, the typical stop would be around 3,000 to 6,000. So its more of a % of the current btc...
I hear you Zappa
I will not knowingly hold a 2k to 4k stoploss.
It is for when price falls 1000 point when I wasn't there to react.
In fact most of my trade SLs are last resort like yours and I am hoping to reassess when half of it is gone
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #628
  • May 3, 2026 2:37pm May 3, 2026 2:37pm
just now:
Lunges to the upside. Does the market know what we don't know?
Another taco moment?
Iran capitulating?
US agreeing to Iran terms?
US not agreeing but removing the blockade?
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #629
  • May 3, 2026 3:19pm May 3, 2026 3:19pm
Lung to the upside has not developed any follow through for now
The immediate blue line above is key level for more upside.
Fundamentally, I have stated all the variables - the Iran situation developments.
We can only have risk on or risk off.
Risk on means more taco decisions or postponement of the ceasefire
Risk off means Iran deal not accepted or worse more bombing
This is the way I see it
I have a small long with a tight stop
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #630
  • May 3, 2026 3:25pm May 3, 2026 3:25pm
I was just thinking, what id there is fundamental quietness
no ceasefire extension
No new bombing
No jawboning between US and Iran

Bitcoin should go up. Unless there is some other fundamental in play
The games continue...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #631
  • May 3, 2026 3:27pm May 3, 2026 3:27pm
As I type price is spiking...
My position is in profit - not much though
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #632
  • May 3, 2026 3:31pm May 3, 2026 3:31pm
Yet an extra blue line - target 79166
Bulls and reluctant bulls like myself I salute you
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #633
  • Edited 4:20pm May 3, 2026 3:37pm | Edited 4:20pm
Quoting Olu
I was just thinking, what id there is fundamental quietness no ceasefire extension No new bombing No jawboning between US and Iran Bitcoin should go up. Unless there is some other fundamental in play The games continue...
Wish i had an answer for you Olu, but retail is always last to hear about breaking news.

But as Ive said before and Kobbyf said yesterday, "before any news market prepares itself for it".
Thays why i just focus on technical analysis myself. Ill never be the first to hear about anything, and im not even sure id pick the right direction even if I did.

Look at chart when news broke that USA attacked Iran. Btc was trending down on rumors of an impending attack, looked like new lows were inevitable. Then the news broke and after a quick spike down (but not to new lows) the market rebounded and went the other direction. That was a major low that never got touched again.

Technically BTC looks primed for a breakout higher. The signs are there, and the price action looks right as well
  • #634
  • May 3, 2026 3:42pm May 3, 2026 3:42pm
Same spike like I sold profitably.
We are not getting moves or price exploration to the downside just upside - making the upside more tenable barring some mad fundamental news
-
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #635
  • May 3, 2026 3:47pm May 3, 2026 3:47pm
Upside looks good. A break of 78k is immediately bearish and I will sell if we get there with a tight SL
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #636
  • May 3, 2026 3:47pm May 3, 2026 3:47pm
Quoting Olu
Yet an extra blue line - target 79166 Bulls and reluctant bulls like myself I salute you {image}
Nice trade brotha!
  • #637
  • May 3, 2026 3:54pm May 3, 2026 3:54pm
is anyone seeing this price action?
15min and 60min
Can bitcoin be showing weakness?
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #638
  • May 3, 2026 3:56pm May 3, 2026 3:56pm
Acute chart:
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #639
  • May 3, 2026 4:16pm May 3, 2026 4:16pm
Thinking (and hoping) we're about to punch through these lines
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  • #640
  • May 3, 2026 4:26pm May 3, 2026 4:26pm
Quoting Zappa
Thinking (and hoping) we're about to punch through these lines {image}
Thinking and hoping with you...
If the blue line goes our prayers diverge
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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