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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #261
  • Apr 24, 2026 8:20am Apr 24, 2026 8:20am
A trader needs to be emotionless I believe, or at least strive to be. Must be flexible and never glued to an idea or bias. The trick is to be able to make money while being wrong a lot of the times, because we are all going to be wrong sometimes. Nobody is perfect or omniscient. When a trader becomes angry at an opposing outlook, to me that signals immaturity
  • #262
  • Apr 24, 2026 8:36am Apr 24, 2026 8:36am
I have taken a small short against the highs of today
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #263
  • Apr 24, 2026 9:14am Apr 24, 2026 9:14am
Quoting Olu
I have taken a small short against the highs of today
I have closed my position because Oil started coming off and stock market rising.
Still on the lookout for shorts
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #264
  • Apr 24, 2026 9:45am Apr 24, 2026 9:45am
Selloffs seem to be going against the grain. Buying looks more slippery. Bulls might be letting bears tire themselves out every time they try to make a move.


(Cue a massive selloff now that I'm posting this)
  • #265
  • Apr 24, 2026 9:52am Apr 24, 2026 9:52am
We are back to risk on in the stock market
Crude is falling
Bitcoin's price is in a range today and within yesterdays range as well and has but in a bullish candle spurred by strength in the stock market and crude oil falling
Price can head up to recent highs and with a bit of exuberance to the top of the box
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #266
  • Apr 24, 2026 10:51am Apr 24, 2026 10:51am
Oil collapsed. And then started recovering. Price running/manipulation?
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #267
  • Apr 24, 2026 10:59am Apr 24, 2026 10:59am
Quoting Olu
Oil collapsed. And then started recovering. Price running/manipulation? {image}
You'd think oil would be at $150 with the mess in Iran. Just goes to show you how hard it is to trade off fundamentals
  • #268
  • Apr 24, 2026 11:30am Apr 24, 2026 11:30am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} You'd think oil would be at $150 with the mess in Iran. Just goes to show you how hard it is to trade off fundamentals
Indeed Zappa.
Posted an Bitcoin hourly chart of today's price action. Ranging all day. Price even lost all the upside due to the downmove in crude oil
Range trading saved the day for me.
Another thing today, there was a bit of divergence with the stock market.
The stock market is up but bitcoin is down.
Makes me think downmoves in bitcoin will be more pronounced when the stock market moves down and less up when the stock market moves up if this bearish expectation is to happen
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #269
  • Apr 24, 2026 12:23pm Apr 24, 2026 12:23pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Indeed Zappa. Posted an Bitcoin hourly chart of today's price action. Ranging all day. Price even lost all the upside due to the downmove in crude oil Range trading saved the day for me. Another thing today, there was a bit of divergence with the stock market. The stock market is up but bitcoin is down. Makes me think downmoves in bitcoin will be more pronounced when the stock market moves down and less up when the stock market moves up if this bearish expectation is to happen {image}
Been in a very tight range today. Not what I hoped for, but day isn't done yet. I hear what you're saying about what happens to BTC if stocks drop. I don't know. Bears are persistent little bastards, but bulls are buying it up too. Don't know if bears have the ammo to really blast it down, but maybe.

Random strong buy orders make me leery of going short if stopped out.
  • #270
  • Apr 24, 2026 12:33pm Apr 24, 2026 12:33pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Been in a very tight range today. Not what I hoped for, but day isn't done yet. I hear what you're saying about what happens to BTC if stocks drop. I don't know. Bears are persistent little bastards, but bulls are buying it up too. Don't know if bears have the ammo to really blast it down, but maybe. Random strong buy orders make me leery of going short if stopped out.
I hear you.
And indeed to day is not done yet.
There will be profit taking and positioning for the weekend by market participants
If I am not stopped out I have a tiny short still on now. Its stop is tightish and may not last the day
Luckily bitcoin trades over the weekend. Price could try and attack the 77450 low
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #271
  • Apr 24, 2026 1:42pm Apr 24, 2026 1:42pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I hear you. And indeed to day is not done yet. There will be profit taking and positioning for the weekend by market participants If I am not stopped out I have a tiny short still on now. Its stop is tightish and may not last the day Luckily bitcoin trades over the weekend. Price could try and attack the 77450 low
Price did hit the 77.4k level as I thought it would but I had already been stopped out before that low was hit. No worries though.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #272
  • Apr 24, 2026 2:03pm Apr 24, 2026 2:03pm
Looking at 4H chart - The price may go down to retest the FIB levels 38-61 areas before more up (green box).
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  • #273
  • Apr 24, 2026 2:18pm Apr 24, 2026 2:18pm
Call me crazy, but i still think my long position has a good chance of not getting stopped out. This bearish move looks very weak.

I am setting a target on this now though. Target is 81,800. A few things lining up around 82k and its about to be the weekend.

Decided im just going to assume the stair steps moves will continue until proven otherwise. Maybe we are in for a big move up (and mayeb not too), but it might just chop its way up for a while. I dont know. All I do know is ive had many, many trades lately that I shouldve taken profits sooner at places I KNEW could've been reversal areas, but got greedy and ended with much less profits.

Had a good talk with a buddy of mine today that trades stocks and this dude kicks ass! Made over 200k this month! Was telling him about my missed profit taking opportunities lately. I asked him about a typical r:r he uses and almost always just 1:1 or 1:2. Im usually going for 1:3 minimum and often times much more, but many times Ill end up with a b/e trade after it went further distance than I risked.

Think im going to set closer targets for more hits. If I miss out on more theres always the next trade.

Was laughing because he said when hes up 40k on a trade, he sees what he could buy with that (even though he already has everything). "If I see a 40k profit I say to myself thats a new car!" he has told me that before, but today it kind of stuck.He still thinks like that. Maybe it good to remember that when im up a good amount. Just take the money and wait for next setup.
  • #274
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:16pm Apr 24, 2026 3:16pm
Quoting Ultras
Looking at 4H chart - The price may go down to retest the FIB levels 38-61 areas before more up (green box). {image}
Hi Ultras. Thanks for sharing. The 62 fib would be nice.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #275
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:46pm Apr 24, 2026 3:46pm
Im moving target even closer to 80,600. Still a little better than a 1:1 trade for me. Got a terrible entry.

Its the 1.5 and 3.0 retracememts on a couple of the moves.

Just added a little bit of size to this trade too. Why not its already very close to my stop.
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  • #276
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:51pm Apr 24, 2026 3:51pm
Quoting Kizzya
{quote} Hello bro! Maybe my English is bad, but I would like to clarify, the cue ball is currently trading in the 77800 zone~ I am also in a long position, somewhere up to 80k today I looked at the USDTD chart and now the picture is that we are testing the trend line, and if we break it, then the long btc is canceled,what do you think ?
Sorry Kizzya, just saw this. New member posts get delayed and I missed your question
  • #277
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:56pm Apr 24, 2026 3:56pm
Quoting fireflycrypt
{quote} i will use your chart as an example, every low in history has had some sort of a po3 aka range, manipulation, expansion or at minimum a model 2 accumulation with significant liquidity to the upside which obviously is an aspect of a po3. What do we have here to bottom out, ok we hit A macro demand zone fine, but what did we do in that demand zone, there's no wyckoff accumulation going on, actually this is just setting up a bearish po3, I see 0 reason and nothing in history backs up that this will be the low we can talk about the supply and...
Just saw this one too. Look, maybe you are right. I really have no idea what it will do long term. Looks to me like we might have bottomed out, but I might be bearish by tomorrow morning for all I know.

Sometimes I just share some thoughts or ideas swirling around in my head just to discuss.

My only point with the long term strategy was that IF it is a long term bottom, MAYBE the best strategy is the one I talked about. Thats all
  • #278
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:59pm Apr 24, 2026 3:59pm
Quoting Zappa
Call me crazy, but i still think my long position has a good chance of not getting stopped out. This bearish move looks very weak. I am setting a target on this now though. Target is 81,800. A few things lining up around 82k and its about to be the weekend. Decided im just going to assume the stair steps moves will continue until proven otherwise. Maybe we are in for a big move up (and mayeb not too), but it might just chop its way up for a while. I dont know. All I do know is ive had many, many trades lately that I shouldve taken profits sooner...
Hi Zappa,
Thanks for a the post. Worthy of gentle reflection.
I know someone as well, very successful at trading that shoots for 1:4 most times. His trades usually have small stops and the targets are usually usually well within the average daily ATR. When I told him about a 500 pip stoploss in bitcoin he whistled. He said he was sure he could be tighter than that on my time frame. I said I was coming to see him. I will let you know any nuggets I glean from him.

Personally I tend to trade 1:open and manually close. The trades, like for all other traders, usually end up with various outcomes. But when it not an outright loss, small loss or break even it is 0.5-2.5 usually. Working on reducing second guessing. For me, more screen time means more tinkering with trades

I like the 4h and daily TFs. When I have more screen time it's 1h and 15min.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #279
  • Apr 24, 2026 3:59pm Apr 24, 2026 3:59pm
Quoting fireflycrypt
{quote} Chill, I'm not saying YOU'RE lying or YOU'RE creating false hope, I was saying the entire space of the government involvement etc, I'm not coming at YOU, I'm sharing my thoughts and showing the history of btc and what it's never done before and what it has always done and what it repeated even last range, you can disagree with me and do what you like, im just tryna show you the perspective of whats always happened at every major bottom and where it has never majorly bottomed and why, if you believe the supply and demand and wanna go over...
I see. Well then no problem. Welcome to the thread
  • #280
  • Apr 24, 2026 4:06pm Apr 24, 2026 4:06pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi Zappa, Thanks for a the post. Worthy of gentle reflection. I know someone as well, very successful at trading that shoots for 1:4 most times. His trades usually have small stops and the targets are usually usually well within the average daily ATR. When I told him about a 500 pip stoploss in bitcoin he whistled. He said he was sure he could be tighter than that on my time frame. I said I was coming to see him. I will let you know any nuggets I glean from him. Personally I tend to trade 1:open and manually close. The trades, like for all...
Sounds good Olu, yes please do share your conversation insights. Always room for improvement and different ideas.

Im inclined to at least try smaller targets and see if performance improves. If you saw how much $$ I could have closed on in last few months but settled for much less your head would spin.

Certainly would have made WAY more money if I had been less greedy. Again, FOMO is my biggest weakness. Trying to work on that
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